Just an interesting calculation...

Let's assume that from all people, 20% might have seen something in their lives they can't explain and might call an UFO. Let's also assume that from all those sightings, however 90% will turn out something explainable, and a remaining 10% would be those which cannot be explained easily.

According to this math, you can take any 100 random people and 2 of them had an unexplainable UFO sighting.

In my opinion, a rather surprisingly high number!

If we assume that 95% of all "UFO" sightings are explainable (instead of 90%)..we still get 1 person for any 100.

reply to post by flexy123


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Uhm and this proves what exactly?
Let's assume 80% instead of 90%...
or even 70%... this means nothing.
.

reply to post by flexy123


My mum and a group of her friends saw a light moving across the horizon, while at the beach, and then it shot up instantly to space...so she tells me.

My co-worker, her and her mum saw a group of them traversing the sky and laughed about it joking that the aliens were finally here.

My mum and I also saw, when I was about 8, a very dark object moving across the sky blotting out the stars as it passed under them.

Aliens exist. This I am sure. Why don't they want us to know they exist, as a general rule? Because we're their food. Always have been, hopefully won't always will be though.

reply to post by flexy123


That's quite a bit of assuming.

We can always just say Drake's Equation vs. Fermi's Paradox where one states probabilities for the existence of other intelligent life in the Universe and the latter asks "If so, then, why don't we see anything?"

If there are anyt real cases of UFOs or aliens, lots of researchers say 95% or 99%, out of the 10,000 and more ... that's still too much, like 5% would be 500 real cases and I think if there are any real cases they may be not more than 50 including Ancient Aliens encounters. So make the maths, 0.5% real cases or 99.5%, some may go to even 99.9% explained.

Some stories told by officials, which credibility cannot be verified, talking about aliens arranged to come every 10 years or so, there was some interview I don't remember with who, who was talking about 3 arrivals of aliens happening from the 50s to the 90s,. I don't remember. Such rare occurances such as coming twice-three times per 50 years is more possible than the everyday sightings being anything not from this Earth..

reply to post by flexy123

According to this math, you can take any 100 random people and 2 of them had an unexplainable UFO sighting.

From real survey numbers that I've read in the past, the actual percentage is a bit higher.

reply to post by flexy123
A few years back, friends and I saw a red light zig-zag across the night sky in about 4 seconds. It was seen by maybe a dozen other people further down the beach and the sky was almost clear.

I've since searched for anyone having reported the sighting and it seems nobody has. So potentially ~20 people saw something that was difficult to explain and didn't say zip about it.

For me, it gave credence to UFO reports where an assumption of misperception and/or stupidity is often applied. If we saw something currently unexplainable...perhaps others do to etc. It also supports that old contention that most UFO sightings don't get reported. The point is usually flogged to death by ufologists on the conference circuit to justify their 'aliens' argument, but is true nonetheless.

So yeah, I guess a lot of people have seen oddly-moving lights in the skies and not said zip.

Originally posted by snewpers
reply to post by flexy123

 

.
Uhm and this proves what exactly?
Let's assume 80% instead of 90%...
or even 70%... this means nothing.
.

and lets assume this thread never happened....
i thought it had some real numbers involved in this math not theoretical ones

reply to post by flexy123


Explanation: S&F!

I agree!

Now if we take the lower figure of 5 billion people on the planet, a guestimate on number of people over past 50yrs, and extrapolate that 1 in 100 [using the lower figure supplied in the OP] then we have 50 million unexplained sightings over say a 50yr period or 1 million per yer = 2740 unexplained sightings per day on average.

That is a LOT of unexplained sightings!

Personal Disclosure: I hope this helps put things in perspective.

Even simpler math: If one case is irrefutable, then the phenomenon is real. In an airliner case where passengers and crew agree they had a close encounter, debunkers can find a way to weasel out of it, even if it means resorting to something silly, like claiming all where high because of a leaky tube of airplane glue or perhaps chalking it up to a bolide, distant rocket launch, or combination of Venus and a Skyhook balloon plus Air Force refueling operation—anything to get out of it. So what can’t be debunked? In the Portage County, Ohio case, with multiple police in addition to civilian witnesses, Blue Book gave it the college try and ended up a laughing stock.

Also in Ohio we have the Trumbull County case, with a UFO observed by lots of cops discussing it with dispatchers while observing whatever it was, plus civilians over a wide area. It’s a stretch, but in both cases people can easily think, as a last resort, that these must have been secret U.S. craft far more advanced than anything known to the public.

But then there’s the case of 1,800 men standing in formation on a military base at 7:30 in the morning and all witnessing a UFO and still watching as a jet was scrambled and the pilot did his best to shoot down an object with incredible performance, an incident that was classified for decades, as was the CIA report, marked “Unknown,” which the pilot didn’t see until 20 years after the event, which has been made public. Debunkers got off easy on this virtually undeniable case, since it was classified until recently, but what’s their story now, with 1,800 witnesses on the ground, a pilot that got a close look, plus radar confirmation, according to the Peruvian Air Force? Is this one to be called a crackpot case? Ball lightning? Nope. What, then? Are we back to mass delusion?

As I stated on another thread that I started "UFO's & Extra Terrestrials. Would the public be informed of irrefutable proof that they existed"? even if there was but ONE case of irrefutable proof that ET's had visited this planet in the past OR an ET Spaceship was discovered, it would have to be debunked as this evidence would destroy the faith that billions have in their religion. There would be pandemonium all over the planet. To millions, their religion is all they have left to rely on. It is their rock, their belief, their faith and their life. You cannot destroy this by announcing that we were created by ET's some thousands of years ago!
TV shows like "Ancient Aliens" are allowed to be aired (I believe) only because of the laughable presenters like Georgio "The Hair" Tsoukalos who are so easily ridiculed. This is then followed up by the debunker's being themselves debunked followed by them likewise being debunked etc., etc., etc. In this way nobody will take them seriously.
Do we have the 'irrefutable evidence'?
If we do then nobody (imo) would release it as it would cause chaos.

reply to post by OzTiger
A lot of people share your ideas and it was even included in the Brookings document from the 50s.

I honestly don't think life on Mars or a visit by ETI would change the religions people subscribe to. There's always a work-around that makes belief-systems unbreakable. It's like with the Ten Commandments isn't it? Nations are allegedly founded on Judeo-Christian beliefs and break the Commandments in spirit and deed every day. They get to keep the beliefs no matter what.

If Mr and Mrs Alien came down, we could say God created them too. Or we could say God created the universe. If anyone had their religious beliefs shaken, they might take time to accommodate new ideas, but is it at all likely they take to the streets and go rampaging?

If you agree on this, then we get to see that a foundation stone in the Robertson recommendations is actually just another trick.

Originally posted by Kandinsky
reply to post by flexy123

 

A few years back, friends and I saw a red light zig-zag across the night sky in about 4 seconds. It was seen by maybe a dozen other people further down the beach and the sky was almost clear.

I've since searched for anyone having reported the sighting and it seems nobody has. So potentially ~20 people saw something that was difficult to explain and didn't say zip about it.

For me, it gave credence to UFO reports where an assumption of misperception and/or stupidity is often applied. If we saw something currently unexplainable...perhaps others do to etc. It also supports that old contention that most UFO sightings don't get reported. The point is usually flogged to death by ufologists on the conference circuit to justify their 'aliens' argument, but is true nonetheless.

So yeah, I guess a lot of people have seen oddly-moving lights in the skies and not said zip.

me,my ex girlfriend and my niece all saw a ufo and none of us reported it,then maybe a month later my next door neighbours also saw a ufo in the same area and they too did not report it

reply to post by flexy123


But seeing something you can explain does not automatically mean its going to be visiting aliens.

If i see a RC plane with lights on it that's to far off to tell its a RC plane with lights then in the eyes of the people who came up with those stats it becomes a UFO.

seeing things in the sky you cant identify is not a phenomenon its just a fact of life. Lets face it almost all the 'sightings' these days are just dots of light in the sky which are to far away for us to see what they are and so get labeled UFO's which then people infer means visiting aliens. Its a far cry from the old days when people use to claim to see real close up alien craft.

Originally posted by PhoenixOD
reply to post by flexy123

 

But seeing something you can explain does not automatically mean its going to be visiting aliens.

If i see a RC plane with lights on it that's to far off to tell its a RC plane with lights then in the eyes of the people who came up with those stats it becomes a UFO.

seeing things in the sky you cant identify is not a phenomenon its just a fact of life. Lets face it almost all the 'sightings' these days are just dots of light in the sky which are to far away for us to see what they are and so get labeled UFO's which then people infer means visiting aliens. Its a far cry from the old days when people use to claim to see real close up alien craft.

edit on 22-8-2012 by PhoenixOD because: (no reason given)

I know both mine and my neighbours sightings could not be explained by helicopter or rc planes , my neighbours experience was a ball of light following close behind there car with no sound ,and my sighting was a disk shaped object with green pulsing lights running around the edge but still we did not report it

Originally posted by OmegaLogos
Now if we take the lower figure of 5 billion people on the planet, a guestimate on number of people over past 50yrs, and extrapolate that 1 in 100 [using the lower figure supplied in the OP] then we have 50 million unexplained sightings over say a 50yr period or 1 million per yer = 2740 unexplained sightings per day on average.

Not if you realize that a given UFO sighting can be made simultaneously by 75% of the planet's population, as long as the UFO is high enough in the atmosphere (and in the northern hemisphere.)

You can't count that as 3.75 billion sightings, you know. Only one.

Harte