Venezuela plans a 'guerrilla army' against US invasion

Originally posted by victor7
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

 

Unlike Iran and Syria, Chavez got elected by free voting. So he is legitimate until the end of his term.

Which is what I at least implied by his having to get elected and using the US as an external enemy to rally his support.

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul


True but only partially. Common person looks first at his top basic needs and well being. If Chavez is doing a better job than many others then they will vote him in again and rightfully so. Otherwise, he will also pack his bags like Sarkozy in France i.e. voted out of power.

Regarding threat mongering and hate of US to gain votes, again it is adults running jobs and families who are voting not kids choosing the icecream flavor for the weekend party.

It's really not that extraordinary or paranoid.

Is it a little much to publicly claim the reason is because of the US.. ? Maybe, it could be seen as 'paranoid', but I don't see it that way. It's a defensive force, not an invasion force. I have my separate issues with beefing up the military in general, but I'm not Venezuelan, so I have little ground to stand on for my opinions on that.

Fact of the matter is, the world is walking on eggshells right now because they see that the US is on the warpath. Israel wants to go for Iran, and the US will back them if that's the case. It's not a secret that Venezuela is an outspoken "neutralist" and is very against the attacking of middle-eastern countries, especially Iran.

If the US goes to war with Iran, which I hope doesn't happen with every fiber of my being, then it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that the US decides to take to the "world-stage" WW3 style, which hearkens back to Bush's "Axis of Evil" speech when he addressed the nation. This was met with thunderous applause by all representatives at the time, by the way.

Originally posted by victor7
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

 

Regarding threat mongering and hate of US to gain votes, again it is adults running jobs and families who are voting not kids choosing the icecream flavor for the weekend party.

and you think that somehow that invalidates the point??

it is an age-old tactic in politics - chavez is nto eh first person to use it, and plenty of supposedly intelligent thinking people have bought into it in various ways over the centuries - heck most recently the GWB vs Saddam Hussein for example!

reply to post by ninjas4321


Good for them. Until there is no open repression on the population and the vast majority supports Chavez, I can only wish them well. Even Cuba taking into account all the difficulties and arbitrage has made amazing social advances.

I do not particularly care about the personalities (I still defend that Che was killed with help from the Castos) or even the politics (not communism but leftist, Castro add to adopt the communist flag to survive the US oppression).

All the South Americas is the result of US policies, from the level of culture of the presidents, the political systems adopted, to the more extremist positions.

The reality is that in a direct confrontation with a US invasion the regular army would not have a chance.

reply to post by victor7

True but only partially. Common person looks first at his top basic needs and well being. If Chavez is doing a better job than many others then they will vote him in again and rightfully so. Otherwise, he will also pack his bags like Sarkozy in France i.e. voted out of power.

That's a horribly naive view of the world. People do not pay attention to their basic needs unless they are critically dwindling.

Just look at the U.S. - Our economy has been in jeopardy for decades and we continue to elect the same clowns into office even when we lose, collectively, billions in savings in stocks and mutual funds.

People can be easily distracted. Race is a weapon - the idea that racism is a serious factor in modern sociology is one that has been kept alive because it gives people power. Racism will never be a dead issue - it is simply too powerful and convenient of a tool.

Class is a weapon. So long as people have less than another person - they will inherently feel that this other person is somehow getting these additional things unfairly or unjustly. No evidence to the contrary will convince them otherwise. Thus - 'equality' will always be another weapon that is simply too powerful to let go.

It will never end. People, on the whole, are stupid and easily led around by people who can think outside the herd. Unfortunately - a lot of the people who can do this tend to manipulate the herd towards selfish ends.

And people will follow them "for the greater good" - or whatever catch-phrase that individual has created to rally the masses.

Regarding threat mongering and hate of US to gain votes, again it is adults running jobs and families who are voting not kids choosing the icecream flavor for the weekend party.

This will sound somewhat arrogant - but it's my experience in dealing with foreign nationals that you can tell who comes from first, second, and third world nations almost immediately based on their level of intelligence.

Even middle to low class Indians can communicate with english speaking individuals with some manner of effectiveness and are often fluent and functional within their own language. If you need a translator to communicate more advanced concepts - they get it.

People from third world nations.... good #ing luck. It is, literally, like herding chickens. They don't understand you - they don't understand their own written language; and they have fragmented understanding of their own spoken language that has to be filled in with a hostile tone... and you just hope they connect the dots that what they were doing was what got them in trouble. What can you do when they don't even understand the translator speaking their language?

People from first world nations generally read into the situation and don't give you any problems unless you hit a cultural barrier that throws them off. You'll have a few that throw you for a loop - but a hopelessly stupid American, British, Japanese, or Australian person is about your average high-functioning third world person.

I don't have much confidence in Venezuela's voter base.

Of course, I don't have much in America's voting base, either.

Originally posted by Panic2k11
reply to post by ninjas4321

 

All the South Americas is the result of US policies, from the level of culture of the presidents, the political systems adopted, to the more extremist positions.

The reality is that in a direct confrontation with a US invasion the regular army would not have a chance.

US can show them the correct way of life i.e. ethical based capitalism which can also be called light flavored socialism. However if the local culture of the country screws it up because its culture is corrupt and lawless, then US is helpless is showing leaders and people the right way of living.

Originally posted by SyphonX

Fact of the matter is, the world is walking on eggshells right now because they see that the US is on the warpath. Israel wants to go for Iran, and the US will back them if that's the case. It's not a secret that Venezuela is an outspoken "neutralist" and is very against the attacking of middle-eastern countries, especially Iran.

If the US goes to war with Iran, which I hope doesn't happen with every fiber of my being, then it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that the US decides to take to the "world-stage" WW3 style, which hearkens back to Bush's "Axis of Evil" speech when he addressed the nation. This was met with thunderous applause by all representatives at the time, by the way.

edit on 14-8-2012 by SyphonX because: (no reason given)

While I do not like US or any other to poke noses in the affairs of other nations, but I sure do hope that US and allies take out the nuclear capacities of Iran. Recently I read something which changed my opinion to this one. I fear anyother Islamic nations holding nuclear weapons and missiles able to deliver them near and far. No! something that peaceful minded nations should not be willing to live with.

Originally posted by victor7
US can show them the correct way of life i.e. ethical based capitalism which can also be called light flavored socialism.

ROFL....do you actually beleive either of those statements??

ETHICAL capitalism??? really??

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

ROFL....do you actually beleive either of those statements??

ETHICAL capitalism??? really??

I think that was sarcasm on his part.

Though I will say that 'ethical capitalism' is as plausible as 'fair socialism.'

Personally, I'm a believer in the Red Queen - compete or be passed by. Capitalism is the natural order of all things.

That said - I'm largely of the opinion that this is a stunt by Chavez and nothing more. The U.S. has no reason to invade.

Although... I'd almost hate to turn him down on his invitation. It'd be rude.

reply to post by Aim64C

Capitalism is the natural order of all things.

That is well said. Those who tried to undo or defy the natural order, paid the price in terms of misery and struggle.

However, having free healthcare and some social support like temporary unemployment benefits etc. should not be considered socialism. Having a healthy and hopeful country is a step towards having a prosperous and progressive one.

Originally posted by victor7
However, having free healthcare and some social support like temporary unemployment benefits etc. should not be considered socialism. Having a healthy and hopeful country is a step towards having a prosperous and progressive one.

Please explain to me and everyone else how something like health care is "free".

Nothing is ever free... Someone, somewhere, pays for it.

Please set the Obama cool-aid down and think that through before trying to defend it.

reply to post by Xcathdra


Don't want to start a new debate. Free Healthcare is human right and even if it comes at the cost of 2-3% higher taxes. Find other areas like defense, 1-2% higher taxes on super rich etc. to offset the costs, but free healthcare is mandatory.

I think Chavez is playing his cards right in training a guerrilla force instead of a conventional military, although having a couple top secret missile silos won't hurt.

I am going to take Ireland as an example for those of you who are saying the US will beat a Guerrilla army;

- Michael Collins had organized the IRA into a guerrilla army who acted on their own local intelligence and intuition to overpower the RIC and British regulars when they saw fit.
- Collins had a popular backing (whenever he walked around and the British tried arresting him riots would ensue) and had a small cell of assassins under his direct command ('The 12 Apostles' as he called them) and sent them to take out strategic officers and to direct diversionary attacks.
- Barely 1500 strong they overwhelmed the British Regulars, RIC, Black'n'Tans through hit and run tactics.

Ireland has largely open spaces and hills and they managed to out run and out maneouvre the British army.
Now imagine 1,000,000 trained and properly armed guerrilla fighters in a jungle. Do you think the US will beat them? The answer is no, they will need to enlist a guerrilla army to fight a guerrilla army (Ireland's standing force is based on Collins tactics so we are normally asked by the US, Britain to train their counter-insurgent forces) and I don't see any country sending their counter insurgency forces to stop Venezuela on behalf of the US. I know Ireland wouldn't.

Not tooting my own horn here but Ireland has one of the best armies in the world (we focus on dynamic fighting and ambush tactics coupled with heavy firepower and flexibility to overwhelm the enemy in the short term) and we wouldn't dare train another nations force to use counter-insurgent tactics in great numbers (since it would endanger our armed forces capability) which is what would be needed to counter a million man army.

Good luck getting any other nation to teach you as they will be thinking the same thing.

reply to post by victor7

US can show them the correct way of life i.e. ethical based capitalism which can also be called light flavored socialism. However if the local culture of the country screws it up because its culture is corrupt and lawless, then US is helpless is showing leaders and people the right way of living.

I sincerely believe that you do not know what you are talking about beyond simple economic rhetoric in support of capitalism. Not that I have anything against capitalism in a system that as growth potential as a way to lift "some" people, I do not believe that it is the fairest or even just system but I recognize that in that context it is a viable system, but not now, the era of exponential growth has ended, we are beyond peak energy resources and at peak demographics capitalism do not work anymore at least to the benefit of majority of the population (it has never served a majority only the acting majority, those that had the power of enforce a system) and as communism, capitalism has never been fully implemented and never in anything that empowered good ethics (the present situation is a clear example how ethics and capitalism have nothing in common).

In any case we were discussing South America, and what I'm exposing is your lack of historic awareness. I will not go beyond stating that you are wrong. Simply look up "Banana republic", how the US has interfered in the region, from assassinating presidents to fomenting revolts. Or take a good and unbiased look on Cuba's history (look beyond systems and personages and to the policies and their impact). To contrast things look at how South America prospered during WW2, when it was in the US interests not to rock the boat (one has to disregard some states systems but look at the economic prosperity only, the past had already shaped the political spectrum then).

Those POOR MONKEYS!! This is ANIMAL CRUELTY!!! Using guerrillas in combat.. for Shame!


Meh, egotistical dope. He thinks that by kissing Amadinajad on the cheek and having him over to dinner.. and offering us junk asphalt oil... he has something we want and is a big boy now. This guy just cant handle it that he is a small potato.

The thing is, the US wouldnt have to wage war on Venezuela. If the US wanted to, they could crush a country like venezuela without sending a single troop there.

reply to post by Trajan


Star for you and good point about Ireland. (I also find it interesting that the IRA had for a time a very good relation to the drug cartels in regard to counter intelligence and training). I do not like the ideology or goals of the organization but I can recognize the power and brilliance of the strategy of both sides.

couple top secret missile silos

I think that if Venezuela goes that way (the Cuban error) it would seal its destiny. Castro was never interested in becoming a Communist it was a move of opportunity and self preservation (fort him and the revolution), of course the polices were from the left but not really much beyond the basic Leninist principles. The missiles was a response to the bay of pigs and the only way to keep Cuba relevant enough to get Soviet protection from future invasions. Again the US shaped the development of the situation more than Cuba or the Soviets. It still baffles me that after major errors in place of corrective measures and addressing the situation in fairness those that have the power always opt to pile error over error, in never solves anything leading only to a snow ball effect that ultimately proves disastrous to all parties...

I think everyone just want to dismantle US.

Originally posted by daaskapital
I have no opinion on whether or not a US invasion of Venezuela is likely...

What i do acknowledge though, is the intelligence of Venezuela.

History has shown that the US cannot effectively fight guerrilla warfare. Look at Korea, Vietnam...Iraq, Afghanistan. The US has/will pull out on all occasions.

Venezuela is playing it smart if they truly feel threatened.

We won every battle in vietnam[lost the war due to support and because we left]


We're good at fighting these type of battles, we just don't have the support[which we shouldn't get, I don't support unjustified wars]

Don't get it twisted, the USA army would easily murder these guys in battle.
The point of guerilla warfare is not to win at all, it's too exhaust the enemy and have them stay long enough until they lose support back home. Because it will become too costly.