CNN:Bush would Win Election 301-237 if election were held today

According to a CNN survery Bush would win the electorial College if the elections were held today. However the survey does indicated Kerry is gaining ground in several Key States.

www.cnn.com...

Was this done before the second debate? It says 10/8 so I'm assuming it was. I wonder if it is different today based on the polls done after Friday nights debate. Actually, I'll be even MORE curious to see what the electoral votes are this coming Friday since the debates will be over at that point!

Jemison

This happens every week, I know exactly who CNN is taking this data from and I can tell you that this switches every day.

www.race2004.net... is another site that projects winners based on local polling.

If the election were held today we project:

Kerry wins the presidency with 284 electoral votes. Bush places second with 254 electoral votes.

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,410,818 votes (49.65%). Bush places second with 54,131,422 votes (48.5%).

So unless something very major happens on either side it will be a close race!

Jemison

What I find interesting, looking at both maps, is that CNN gives all the undecided states (according to race2004) to Bush...

I've been looking at the polls in the battleground states on race2004, and from what I've seen, the state that could decide the election is not Florida but Wisconsin... Cracking the numbers, I'd give Florida, Arkansas, Ohio and Missouri to Bush, while Kerry gets Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Maine.

Which means that if Bush wins Wisconsin, he takes the White House 270 to 268. If Kerry wins Wisconsin, he takes the White House 278 to 260.

And before I get flamed (since non-Americans who comment on the election campaign have been asked by some posters to disclose that they're not Americans), a disclaimer - this is my PERSONAL opinion as a guy who likes to follow elections, look at tendencies and make predictions. This is NOT a judgement on how Americans should vote.

www.electoral-vote.com runs a similar thing on the polls by electoral vote.

Many things could change between now and then, but I feel if things stay as they are, it will all come down to Ohio and Florida. (Note that I am in favor of neither Bush nor Kerry...and no I'm not voting for Nader either).

I think it's an understatement to say it will be close

Neither candidate can afford a big screw-up now though, especially in this last debate. That's something that could throw the election 5-10% to either side.

THe only way a 5-10% difference would happen could be from a major slipup by a candidate. Theres plenty of states in play where the difference is about 2 percent or less, which is where this last debate would be so crucial.

According to CBS the electoral race is too Close to Call



www.cbsnews.com...

The Washington Dispatch is reporting Bush will win 296-242

Citing the Key states

IOWA
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

WISCONSIN
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

NEW JERSEY
Kerry 47%
Bush 41%

www.washingtondispatch.com...