Solar Flare Headed Our Way!

Originally posted by nexttothemoon
I know it doesn't look to be particularly huge but it still looks impressive as it heads directly towards Earth.

www.spaceweather.com...

Sorry I had to run off and leave for work after starting the thread last night. Your link looks very impressive!
Thanks! (Now.... if I only knew what all that stuff meant!)

reply to post by sled735


A good place to go is Space Weather.com Meteors showers forcast

reply to post by sled735


Update that the CME released by the sun is traveling faster that originaly forecast and will have a direct effect on Earth sometime Sat.

reply to post by prophetboy12

The "original" forecast was that the CME would arrive Friday night/ early Saturday (EDT). The new forecast is for mid-morning Saturday. This means the CME is moving a bit slower than originally thought.

Originally posted by prophetboy12
reply to post by sled735

 

Update that the CME released by the sun is traveling faster that originaly forecast and will have a direct effect on Earth sometime Sat.

This will not have much of an effect on us other than possibly some pixelization in your digital signal from you cable company during a show or a little additional static on the radio. They even said it will not have much of an effect on us. This is what they said in the article .
"Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned."

Now if it intensifies later that will change. So don't go out and start screaming down you neighborhood road "the end of the world is here just yet"

Going to be a direct hit!

www.solarham.net...

Here is an interesting link that shows how the NOAA and NASA are both giving different estimates as to the power and timing of this flare.

Washington Post

The question is... which agency is correct?

Boy I hope I am powerless to influence it b/c the way I feel today I'd probably have the whole planet fry if it was up to me. BAD DAY, just being honest.

I have a question for you folks though of a more serious nature - for those of us that have to be outside in an open field with no shade tomorrow during this time, are there any special precautions needed? IE hats, high stregnth sunscreen, anything?

Or would that just be futile anyway? (To add anything new in way of sun protection.)

Also, is it possible that solar flares make can make a normally happy person just feel mad as hades at the world?

reply to post by hadriana

The very, very tiny increase in solar radiation resulting from the flare came and went yesterday.

The only effects of the CME which was associated with the flare and will arrive tomorrow will be a bit of a wiggle in the Earth's magnetic field and the probability of some nice auroral displays for those living at high latitudes.

Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow, no precautions out of the ordinary will be required.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by hadriana

 

The very, very tiny increase in solar radiation resulting from the flare came and went yesterday.

The only effects of the CME which was associated with the flare and will arrive tomorrow will be a bit of a wiggle in the Earth's magnetic field and the probability of some nice auroral displays for those living at high latitudes.

Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow, no precautions out of the ordinary will be required.

Very very tiny increase ?

Except that this flare is 15 times the size of earth
with a speed like no other solar flares we have seen before

Communications sattelite will be the first one to be impacted
then it will impact the magnetic shield of earth like never before and make beautiful auroral display

It will be one of the hottest day in a long time
crops will burn and many rivers will go dry

i didnt even give the worst case scenarios
but i will let that to the expert like you Phage

2012-07-13 13:25 UTC CME Forecast Revised

The latest model run now indicates the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event will impact the earth's magnetic field around 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on Saturday, July 14. SWPC is forecasting category G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity then, with a chance of G2 (Moderate) levels at times through July 15. The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm persists just above event threshold. Region 1520 has decayed in the past 12 hours, but is still potentially eruptive.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by Ben81

Except that this flare is 15 times the size of earth
with a speed like no other solar flares we have seen before

A flare is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. It doesn't have any "size" and it travels at the speed of light.

It will be one of the hottest day in a long time
crops will burn and many rivers will go dry

I better put some beer on ice then but if you're right it has nothing to do with the CME which is approaching.

I guess you forgot about the X2.2 we were "hit" by last year? But the CME from yesterday will probably have a bit more of an effect than that one did.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Phage


All recent solar flare were big .. some classed "M"
but not has much has this one classed X

Are we safe from the sun? Solar flares keep on getting stronger - with latest hotspot the size of 15 Earths strung together

The sun is a tempestuous mistress - and her outbursts are becoming more and more violent as the weeks go on.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory spotted the summer's first 'X' solar flare on Friday - a huge outburst from the sun right at the top of the scale.
This came on the back of 12 'M' flares in just six days, with a M6.1 flare knocking out radio signals across the planet on Thursday - hinting at the destruction the sun could reign on our technology if Earth takes a full blast across its blow.
The sunspot group behind the flares - named as AR1515 - stretches across 118,681 miles (191,000km) of the sun's surface.
This makes it's width more than 15 Earths set end to end, said NASA solar astrophysicist C. Alex Young.

Is it me or this things looks to have horns lol
can you imagine this thing is 15 time the size of earth

Solar flares strongly influence the local space weather in the vicinity of the Earth. They can produce streams of highly energetic particles in the solar wind, known as a solar proton event, or "coronal mass ejection" (CME). These particles can impact the Earth's magnetosphere (see main article at geomagnetic storm), and present radiation hazards to spacecraft, astronauts, and cosmonauts.

Massive solar flares are sometimes associated with CMEs which can trigger geomagnetic storms that have been known to knock out electric power for extended periods of time. According to Matthew Stein, many hundred thousands of miles of high voltage lines would act like an antenna drawing the electro-magnetic pulse from a solar flare toward thousands of transformers on the world's power grids. Many transformers could burn out and be difficult to replace.

The soft X-ray flux of X class flares increases the ionization of the upper atmosphere, which can interfere with short-wave radio communication and can heat the outer atmosphere and thus increase the drag on low orbiting satellites, leading to orbital decay. Energetic particles in the magnetosphere contribute to the aurora borealis and aurora australis. Energy in the form of hard x-rays can be damaging to spacecraft electronics and are generally the result of large plasma ejection in the upper chromosphere.

The radiation risks posed by coronal mass ejections are a major concern in discussions of a manned mission to Mars, the moon, or other planets. Energetic protons can pass through the human body, causing biochemical damage,[10] presenting a hazard to astronauts during interplanetary travel. Some kind of physical or magnetic shielding would be required to protect the astronauts. Most proton storms take at least two hours from the time of visual detection to reach Earth's orbit. A solar flare on January 20, 2005 released the highest concentration of protons ever directly measured,[11] taking only 15 minutes after observation to reach Earth, indicating a velocity of approximately one-third light speed, giving astronauts as little as 15 minutes to reach shelter.

reply to post by Ben81

Yes, it's a pretty large sunspot group but I don't see anything there about crops burning or rivers drying.

Ok, I think I get that - I know that the light hits first and the charged particles tomorrow - but they won't burn your skin any worse than normal because the big burst of UV hit earlier and it is the shortest wave (and it took 9 seconds to get here? so it's gone now? Is that right?) and we don't have to worry.

Is that right?
I was just concerned because we're all fair skinned and two of my guys have to be out with no shade for 4-5 hours right in the time this is going to hit. (And I'm trying to 'gel' what bit of solar science I have)

Originally posted by Ben81
reply to post by Phage

 

Are we safe from the sun? Solar flares keep on getting stronger - with latest hotspot the size of 15 Earths strung together

The sun is a tempestuous mistress - and her outbursts are becoming more and more violent as the weeks go on.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory spotted the summer's first 'X' solar flare on Friday - a huge outburst from the sun right at the top of the scale.
This came on the back of 12 'M' flares in just six days, with a M6.1 flare knocking out radio signals across the planet on Thursday - hinting at the destruction the sun could reign on our technology if Earth takes a full blast across its blow.
The sunspot group behind the flares - named as AR1515 - stretches across 118,681 miles (191,000km) of the sun's surface.
This makes it's width more than 15 Earths set end to end, said NASA solar astrophysicist C. Alex Young.

Is it me or this things looks to have horns lol

If I use my imagination, I can see a snake rising from the flames.... no wait!.... It has a body... with wings!
IT'S A FLYING DRAGON! Has Quetzalcoatl been released?



Thanks Ben81

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Ben81

 

Except that this flare is 15 times the size of earth
with a speed like no other solar flares we have seen before

A flare is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. It doesn't have any "size" and it travels at the speed of light.

It will be one of the hottest day in a long time
crops will burn and many rivers will go dry

I better put some beer on ice then but if you're right it has nothing to do with the CME which is approaching.

I guess you forgot about the X2.2 we were "hit" by last year? But the CME from yesterday will probably have a bit more of an effect than that one did.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

edit on 7/13/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Impressive thread you have there! Thanks for sharing.

Ok, I thought about it some more...wouldn't if there were incoming charged partciles push the van allen belts back and wouldn't that let more of the normal incoming UV light in? I know the ozone layer is vital to protecting us from UV lights, but do the van allen belts have that function?

I guess that is a different sort of radiation? Beta? Vrs UV/light?

reply to post by hadriana

The magnetosphere (and the Van Allen belts which are there because of the magnetosphere) have no effect on electromagnetic radiation (including UV). Our atmosphere (including the "ozone layer") protects us from most of that.

Aurora forecast

Forecaster Comments: A significant event located on the Sun facing Earth took place on July 12. The effects of this event will begin to reach Earth early on the 14th of July GMT. Observers in North America should watch for aurora on the nights of the 14th and 15th local time. Depending on the configuration of the disturbance, auroras may be visible as far south as the middle tier of states. Activity may remain high also on the 16th. Auroras should be visible Southern New Zealand, Tasmania, and of course, Antarctica