Obama's Shrinking Majority

Elections are about numbers, and right now the president's are bad. To understand why, consider 2008 as a reference point. That year, Barack Obama received 69,456,897 votes to John McCain's 59,934,814.

But a big chunk of President Obama's 9.5 million-vote advantage is probably gone. Let's break this down. According to exit polls, 44.8 million Republicans showed up to vote in 2004 while only 41.4 million did in 2008. Almost all those 3.4 million Republicans who stayed home have been energized by Mr. Obama's agenda and are now eager to vote against him.

Gallup found in April that Republicans were five points more likely to vote than Democrats. More recent measures, including by the Pew Research Center in June, show Republican voters displaying more intense interest than Democrats. If 2008 stay-at-home Republicans vote, Mr. Obama's margin would shrink by more than one-third (to 6.1 million). Similarly, the 2.4 million veterans who voted in 2004 but did not in 2008 could turn out in 2012. Mr. McCain's winning margin among vets was 10 points.

SOURCE ARTICLE

It looks like all of the smear campaigns and cheap parlor tricks such as giving illegals a two year pass are not fooling voters. The general public is looking right past the tokens and tricks and still want answers to bigger questions and still want their rights and freedoms back. I think those that are preaching that this is a sure thing for Obama need to look again.

reply to post by TheTardis


So much for Romney not being able to energize the base. Like I said in another thread Romney doesn't need to energize Republicans, Obama will do it for him.

Oh look a Rupert Murdoch owned Newspaper posting something about Obama's "Shrinking Minority"

Why am I not surprised?

His numbers at this point are about the same as they were against McCain in the summer of '08 before he managed to pull away, and the last several weeks of the campaign he was around 52% pretty consistently. I don't think that's going to happen this time around, though. He doesn't have the huge wave of enthusiasm for his candidacy to propel him this time and as an incumbent, people already know what he is and what he's about. He's not likely to draw significantly more support moving forward, and I think that's where he's vulnerable. He's not going to get the turnout that he did in '08 and that could easily cause him to lose the close states this time that he won back in '08.

Granted, Romney has problems of his own, but I don't think he's facing the headwinds that McCain was in '08. Obama still has the edge, but I think this will be a competitive race and Romney has a very realistic shot at the upset.

This just says that Republicans are more interested....as they should be its an election year, I mean they just had their primaries, they are hoping to take back the white house, the Dems already have the house and im sure its base will turn out, I think they are more or less complacent, they already have their candidate and made some progress with "Obamacare" so they are chilling out at the moment. Im sure they'll make it to the polls as well though.

Originally posted by acmpnsfal
I think they are more or less complacent, they already have their candidate and made some progress with "Obamacare" so they are chilling out at the moment.

I think when they realize their Obamacare will cost twice as much as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined they will keep chilling.