7.0+ Quake Prediction next 36 hours

OK this is the first time I've gone out on a limb like this and my science is probably shakey at best, so treat this prediction as you will.

I have been watching the major quake data for the last 24 months on a few different web-sites and have noticed some what of a pattern with the USGS site. Concentrating only on the world quake map, with its set paramaters of showing quakes 2.5 and over for USA / 4.5 and over for other countries, I have noticed that when the number of quakes fall below 180, then a big one is normally not far away. As I write this that number is at 171 so this is very much in the critical zone.

I sure hope that if something does happen it's a 7.0 not a 9.0 and not located near a built up area.

Peace Out

- Do you have a location for you prediction event? Just wondering.

- I have seen MANY earthquake predictions over the years here. Only one has actually happened (it was the 188 day cycle earthquake prediction). So I think the odds are in favor of it not happening and you can probably not get too uptight about it.

Have a good next 36 hours ... get out and enjoy the day.

reply to post by FlyersFan


It will probably be in one of the usual hot spots, such as Chile, Mexico, Indonesia, Sth Pacific or Japan.

I didn't really buy in to the 188 day cycle thing. I think you can find patterns anywhere if you try hard enough. I have much casino experience so I know all to well how probability works too.

Peace Out

reply to post by nimbinned


Yeah, I'm thinking Western region of Indonesia as a more viable happening

Originally posted by nimbinned
reply to post by FlyersFan

 

It will probably be in one of the usual hot spots, such as Chile, Mexico, Indonesia, Sth Pacific or Japan.

I didn't really buy in to the 188 day cycle thing. I think you can find patterns anywhere if you try hard enough. I have much casino experience so I know all to well how probability works too.

Peace Out

It will probably be in the active tectonic areas, but real science already predicts these things in those areas so what are we talking about then?

reply to post by nimbinned


You're hedging your bet, that's not really a prediction.

Unfortunately a big one is due here in Greece

reply to post by FlyersFan


You're talking about Japan I guess?

The 188 day cycle works great when one ignores any and all other contradictory earthquakes..

Like Haiti.

reply to post by Chadwickus


The truth is that pin-pointing an actual location is extremely difficult, and I would be happy to leave that one to the Psychics. How long have people been predicting the big Cali' quake, with no such event? Also, we appear to be getting quakes in really unusual regions now, so anything is possible. Had a 6.0 in central Australia not so long ago - that is positively strange.

Peace Out

An earthquake prediction needs to be more specific. 36 hours time frame in such a huge area described is not a prediction. I wonder how many members will S&F this thread, without merit. The chances of one 7.0 + event in all that area are big, everyday. Nothing we didn't know already.

Honestly it looks more like the OP is wishing to see that happen to come back and say "I told ya".

Real people die or have their lives ruined by earthquakes, I wouldn't play with that. The only reason to predict an earthquake should be to save lives and must be made with scientific support and consistency.

reply to post by nimbinned


But it's not the 6th yet.

Originally posted by Trueman
An earthquake prediction needs to be more specific. 36 hours time frame in such a huge area described is not a prediction. I wonder how many members will S&F this thread, without merit. The chances of one 7.0 + event in all that area are big, everyday. Nothing we didn't know already.

Honestly it looks more like the OP is wishing to see that happen to come back and say "I told ya".

Real people die or have their lives ruined by earthquakes, I wouldn't play with that. The only reason to predict an earthquake should be to save lives and must be made with scientific support and consistency.

It is certainly not my intention to be flippant about such a serious matter or draw attention to myself (or fish for s and f's). I have made an observation about the data on USGS and am curious as to if there is any merit to this.

Time will tell.

reply to post by nimbinned


I have to say that in some respects you are right in your observation that things recently have tended to go quiet before a bigger quake.

Problem is there is no way of knowing where the bigger quake will be without a huge amount of legwork and calculation and even then it would be a guess.

reply to post by Trueman

An earthquake prediction needs to be more specific. 36 hours time frame in such a huge area described is not a prediction. I wonder how many members will S&F this thread, without merit. The chances of one 7.0 + event in all that area are big, everyday. Nothing we didn't know already.

No they are not. There are on average only 15 a year so the chances are not great in a 36 hour period.

Real people die or have their lives ruined by earthquakes, I wouldn't play with that. The only reason to predict an earthquake should be to save lives and must be made with scientific support and consistency.

I would have said it was an observation rather than a prediction, and as an observation it is not incorrect on current data and of course the fact that a 6.6 has just gone off South of Panama (but it may be reduced to a 6.2 or so)



Yup it got reduced to 6.2

Originally posted by nimbinned
OK this is the first time I've gone out on a limb like this and my science is probably shakey at best, so treat this prediction as you will.

I have been watching the major quake data for the last 24 months on a few different web-sites and have noticed some what of a pattern with the USGS site. Concentrating only on the world quake map, with its set paramaters of showing quakes 2.5 and over for USA / 4.5 and over for other countries, I have noticed that when the number of quakes fall below 180, then a big one is normally not far away. As I write this that number is at 171 so this is very much in the critical zone.

I sure hope that if something does happen it's a 7.0 not a 9.0 and not located near a built up area.

Peace Out

Boy, "the first time" huh? A whole 103 posts for you and it's a first time to make a failed prediction.....

reply to post by amongus

Boy, "the first time" huh? A whole 103 posts for you and it's a first time to make a failed prediction.....

Firstly what has 100 or so posts got to do with anything, especially since they were not about earthquakes and secondly I myself said to the other half earlier tonight that things were very quiet.

Last time we had 2 x Mag 8 after a quiet spell so don't be too hasty to cry 'failed' when the time period is not over. I do think prediction was the wrong word to use, but we will see. We are more than a little overdue for a Mag 7.

reply to post by PuterMan


You've been a member long enough to know that these predictions are like a holes. Everyone has one....yet none are clean...errrr...legit.

reply to post by amongus

You've been a member long enough to know that these predictions are like a holes. Everyone has one....yet none are clean...errrr...legit.

Of course I have and have been looking at earthquakes long enough as well, but I have no idea to what you may be referring

What I was trying to say is that I don't see the OP as a prediction, that is the wrong word for what he said. An observation would be more correct. As an observation it may have some merit, and as I said the 36 hours is not up yet

If you know how tectonic plates works you would know that what you said is nothing special

1- tectonic plates move
2- if they move they are bound create earthquakes because of "friction" between the plates
3- if everything everything is ok we got continuous movement and little earthquakes
4- if the plates there's enough friction, they become locked, so that they won't slide anymore.
5- potential energy is build but no earthquakes
6- When the plates are finally moved, this built-up energy becomes kinetic. big earthquake

I don't see anything special about your prediction.

Well Panama just got a before shock of 6.6
www.abovetopsecret.com...
Now waiting for the big one