Earthquake Forecast For May-June 2012

reply to post by thorforecaster

HITs:
M5.9 – Java, Indonesia, 100 miles from SW Sumatra
Monday, June 4, 2012 at 11:18:15 UTC
Event ID
usb000a6bc

Now first off I believe you said mag 6+

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

But OK 5.8 Mw (it was not 5.9)

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
usgs,2012-06-04 11:18:15, -7.671, 106.418, 5.8, 67.2, Java. Ind.

So, first offf that quake was not Sumatra it was off Java. Sumatra is the bigger island to the North East of where that quake occurred, off the coast of Java. Accuracy is so important I feel.

Let me assume for a moment that it actually was off Sumatra and not Java. You siad caostal SW Sumatra. Difficult to pinpoint exactly where that might be as the main bulk of the coast of Sumatra is SW depending on how you look at it.

So forgiving the fact you got the magnitude wrong, what are the chances of a mag 6 SW coast of Sumatra? The Mag 8.5 in 2007 was classified as Southern Sumatra

Magnitude 8.5
Date-Time

Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 11:10:26 UTC
Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 06:10:26 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 4.520°S, 101.374°E
Depth 34 km (21.1 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Distances 130 km (80 miles) SW of Bengkulu, Sumatra, Indonesia
410 km (255 miles) SSE of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia
625 km (385 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
695 km (430 miles) SSW of SINGAPORE
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 6.1 km (3.8 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=286, Nph=286, Dmin=809.9 km, Rmss=1.11 sec, Gp= 29°,
M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=V
Source

USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2007hear

USGS Source data

Given that was Southern Sumatra I would have to take it that SW Sumatra was to the west of that and thus somewhere arounf the Mentawai Strait area.

If I use 3°S and 97°E as a starting point there would seem to be around 2 mag 6+ a year in a 400 km radius, at least up to 2009. But that is not really representative since that is a circular search and encompasses areas that are not really coastal SW Sumatra as was stated by you.

If I put in southwest of sumatra over a period of the lasy 1000 days I get just 2 results.

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
usgs,2011-08-22 20:12:20, -6.409, 103.985, 6.0, 31.3, S.West Of Sumatra. Ind.

But it is quite obvious that you did not mean SW Sumatra since you claimed a hit for Java. So if I include all the Sumatran coast and tha Javan coast I get 15 events or roughly one every 2.5 months

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
usgs,2012-04-15 05:57:38, 2.549, 90.277, 6.2, 15.2, Off W. Coast Of Northern Sumatra

Dropping it to the claimed hit magnitude I get about one every 2 months.

Since that last one in that rather ill defined area was April then the chances of another occuring within you timeframe were reasonably good. Nothing particularly astounding there.

reply to post by thorforecaster

Magnitude 6.0 COASTAL SOUTHERN PERU
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 16:03:18 UTC
Event ID usb000a9lp
Exact location and magnitude

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
usgs,2012-06-07 16:03:18, -15.919, -72.516, 6.0, 99.7, Southern Peru

M6+ Coastal S Peru from Pisco, Ica to Chile border, and/or from Siera Divisor to Parque Nacional, central Brazil border, and nearby area. 65%

First the location. No not exact, you cannot claim that, but it was close enough being about 300 km from the closest area that you stated.

Magnitude. Yes.

If I look at -15/-75 and 400 km which describes a nice circle around the Ica coastline the chances of a quake in that area of that magnitude are around once every 6 months and the last one was six months ago. This is also an area known to be under stress that has produced some big quakes and will do any time soon.

I will grant you that you were about right, but temper it with the fact that it was due.

I think you should realise that there is little mileage in 'predicting' quakes around the ring of fire.

If you had come up with Virginia or Colorado as an accurate magnitude + or - 0.5 (not a stupidly huge range) and within 100 km I might be impressed at your abilities. Other than that you are just doing what everyone else is doing, and I could do if I wished. I don't wish as it is bad practice and it is pulling the wool over people's eyes.

[color=limegreen]Truth is “Judge not, lest ye not be judged.” (Matthew 7:1).

Originally posted by thorforecaster

[color=limegreen]Truth is “Judge not, lest ye not be judged.” (Matthew 7:1).

edit on 19-6-2012 by thorforecaster because: (no reason given)

So you answer is "La la la I'm not listening"?

reply to post by thorforecaster

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

So how do you get South of Java as SW Sumatra?

HITs: M5.9 – Java, Indonesia, 100 miles from SW Sumatra Monday, June 4, 2012 at 11:18:15 UTC Event ID usb000a6bc

its SE of Sumatra

Learn to read a map mate

I'd be more impressed if you predicted something that wasn't in a place where they have these size quakes all the time.
Like Victoria, Australia 5.4ML yesterday
or Southern India 5.1
places where they don't usually have earthquakes

I could play your game an predict there will be a Mag 3 quake 100% for sure in the Islands of New Zealand region on the 21st June 2012 UTC
or 50% a Mag 4 same area.
But whats the point when the historical data already show this is the case.

I'll be interested to see if your

M7+ Multiple earthquakes at region of Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu and nearby, South Pacific ocean. 65%

comes true, thats about 1/4 of the Globe covered
I'd give you a 25% chance, because there hasn't been a 7 anywhere on the Planet for a while.

reply to post by thorforecaster

[color=limegreen]Truth is “Judge not, lest ye not be judged.” (Matthew 7:1).

[color=limegreen]“Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves."(Matthew 7:15)

reply to post by thorforecaster


Your rather defensive reaction is interesting. You have made no attempt to refute my points, merely tried a rather pathetic attempt at the moral high ground with a religious quote.

I have given you a valid assessment of my view of your predictions and your claims. I may be incorrect in my assessment but it behoves you to defend your own position by responding to my points in a technical manner to point out where I may be wrong.

Now I realise this is in predictions and prophesies so if you are saying this is a set of prophesies and not predictions then I have no issue since I am not a prophet. If you are making predictions then they should be based on facts and contain reasoning.

If they are prophesies then as far as I am concerned they are just religious mumbo jumbo.

You should also remember that accurate earthquake prediction is the Holy Grail of the earthquake world. If you have a system that works that is fantastic, but it must work a reasonable percentage of the time and be demonstrable. So far your 'prophesies' to not fit those criteria.

reply to post by PuterMan


Hi Puterman

I read somewhere that toads are reputed to be able to pre-empt or predict if you like earthquakes. Is there any grounding in this?

The way I read this thread, and I am a complete and utter amateur at best with my quake knowledge and awareness, leads me to an analogy, which living in Ireland as I do, you might appreciate:

It is like a horse race:

Indonesian Archepelago 11/8 fav
Japan off Coast of Honshu 7/4
Alaska 2/1
New Zealand 11/5
Turkey 9/4
United States California 9/4
Greece 11/4
Italy 3/1
Chile 7/2
Norway 33/1
United Kingdom & Ireland 50/1

Now the odds won't be exactly right, but run the race 100 times and the favourites will win more often than not. If the recent one off the Mayo coast had been predicted, then I would have been impressed.

I do not wish to sound clever or condescending to the OP, he surely is much more informed than I, but even I can see that the predictions made are in very active areas, and the magnitudes not especially eyebrow raising.

Or am I wrong?

[color=limegreen]
"Each one should test his own actions. Then he can take pride in himself, without comparing himself to somebody else, for each one should carry his own load" (Galatians 6:4-5).

Truth is “For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again”. (Mark 4.24).

reply to post by thorforecaster


2 Samuel 12:11 "This is what the LORD says: Out of your own household I am going to bring calamity on you. Before your very eyes I will take your wives and give them to one who is close to you, and he will sleep with your wives in broad daylight."

You quote a God that encourages rape?

Exodus 21:17 "Anyone who curses his father or mother must be put to death."

Samuel 15:3 "Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys."

Your God kills children and babies too?

reply to post by gavron

Mocking or insulting God is UNFORGIVEN SIN.

I MUST LEAVE ATS.

reply to post by thorforecaster


I'm not mocking God, I'm just repeating what it says in the Bible. Why is it people never seem to quote the questionable passages of the bible?

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Possible

M6+ major earthquake, coastline from Vancouver Island to Bainbridge Island, and nearby area. Maybe soon by June 7. 65%.

M4.5+ coastline of CA-OR border and upper North CA. 65%. Method: eartone.

M6+ Coastal S Peru from Pisco, Ica to Chile border, and/or from Siera Divisor to Parque Nacional, central Brazil border, and nearby area. 65%

M7+ Multiple earthquakes at region of Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu and nearby, South Pacific ocean. 65%

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

Anti-prediction of M8+ in US, Canada and Mexico this year.

Method: ESP Extra Sensory Perception.
Max P = 65%; Average = 50%; Low = 40%
M6+, M7+… mean magnitude from 6 or 7 to 10.
Past earthquake forecasts’ results at @thorforecaster twitter.com/thorforecaster

My apology, I only have little time to reply few constructive discussions of experienced eq experts and will consider request of ATS members from other countries to reveal more specific locations.

edit on 25-5-2012 by thorforecaster because: typo

I'm an expert on earthquakes and your forecast is worthless, so why post it.

You don't "pinpoint" any of the locations, a forecast is worthless without it. Your just blowing smoke with your vague locations.

You don't "pinpoint" any specific short time period.

You don't have anything to detect any earthquake in advance.

You don't hear an ear tone as you suggest you do - coming from the buildup of an earthquake, simply because if you did hear an ear tone as you suggest you do, then all you would have to do is drive one direction or the other and find out which direction makes the ear tone sound louder, and you would then drive in that direction until you got to the loudest area of your supposed ear tone; and then you would be at the epicenter. But you don't do this, because your supposed ear tone doesn't have anything to do with earthquakes.

All magnitudes of earthquakes are easy to detect in advance by using scientific methods, but you don't have a clue of how its done. All magnitudes of earthquakes can be mapped before they strike, the epicenter pinpointed and the lay of the fault line drawn in, the depth to the hypocenter pinpointed, the magnitudes determined by area and distances, and when they can strike can be determines. Its all simple science.

You see, I know all of this stuff, simply because earthquakes put out a TREMENDOUS signal BEFORE THEY STRIKE. The signal is MASSIVE, and its MUCH STRONGER than the signal Nuclear Power Plants give off.

Even an M1.5 earthquake sends out a MASSIVE signal that is STRONGER than any single Nuclear Power generation plant. An M1.5 earthquake gives off MORE ENERGY than a Nuclear Power Plant, and I'm talking about before the actual quake; I know this simply because I've measured the energy coming from them.

So... let's put it this way, go out to your local Nuclear Power Plant and take a free tour, and see if your ear tone increases as you state it does while you are in the Nuclear Power Plant, I doubt that your ear tone increases any at all, since its nothing but a figment of your imagination.

And... if you don't think that going to a Nuclear Power Plant is anything like an earthquake, then go out as fast as you can to the location given by the USGS, as to where an earthquake struck. Your ear tone won't increase over the earthquake site, or at the epicenter, simply because your ear tone has nothing to do with earthquakes.

If your ear tone was caused by earthquake signals (which it isn't) then your being over the site of an earthquake even minutes to hours later should detect a much louder ear tone (which it won't). But... the real signal that is easily detectable is still detectable over the site, simply because it takes time for the ground to settle back into equalibrium.

So.. don't waste your time on earthquake stuff, because your knowledge is worthless.

Honestly I only clicked this thread to see what you had to say as far as the "Earthquake Forecast For May-June 2012" I totally didn't expect to see some bible crap up in this!!

Leave the bible out of it, if you are using it to predict anything, chances are you will fail!

reply to post by Mufcutcakeyumyum

If the recent one off the Mayo coast had been predicted, then I would have been impressed.

I would have been more than impressed I would have been staggered. even though I believe it to be as a result of the 'aliens' stealing our gas whatever the Irish Geological Society may have to say.

I read somewhere that toads are reputed to be able to pre-empt or predict if you like earthquakes. Is there any grounding in this?

No doubt the results from the prophesies on this thread will shed some light on that.

Or am I wrong?

You are not wrong.