Earthquake Forecast For May-June 2012

Possible

M6+ major earthquake, coastline from Vancouver Island to Bainbridge Island, and nearby area. Maybe soon by June 7. 65%.

M4.5+ coastline of CA-OR border and upper North CA. 65%. Method: eartone.

M6+ Coastal S Peru from Pisco, Ica to Chile border, and/or from Siera Divisor to Parque Nacional, central Brazil border, and nearby area. 65%

M7+ Multiple earthquakes at region of Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu and nearby, South Pacific ocean. 65%

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

Anti-prediction of M8+ in US, Canada and Mexico this year.

Method: ESP Extra Sensory Perception.
Max P = 65%; Average = 50%; Low = 40%
M6+, M7+… mean magnitude from 6 or 7 to 10.
Past earthquake forecasts’ results at @thorforecaster twitter.com/thorforecaster

My apology, I only have little time to reply few constructive discussions of experienced eq experts and will consider request of ATS members from other countries to reveal more specific locations.

What do you see, if anything, for the New Madrid Seismic Zone? Or perhaps the MT. Hood region? Thanks...

reply to post by LobeDethFaurt
They are bigger on east side of Rocky Mt this year. Subduction zone is more dangerous than Mt Hood.

Earthquake builds up:
M5.0 southwestern Sumatra, Indonesia
Saturday, May 26, 2012 at 17:18:02 UTC
Event: usb000a01h

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Possible

M6+ major earthquake, coastline from Vancouver Island to Bainbridge Island, and nearby area. Maybe soon by June 7. 65%.

edit on 25-5-2012 by thorforecaster because: typo

2nd high risk peak is the week of June 20.

reply to post by thorforecaster


First sorry for not getting round to replying to this sooner.

M6+ major earthquake, coastline from Vancouver Island to Bainbridge Island, and nearby area. Maybe soon by June 7. 65%.

I am quite interested in this prediction and have a feeling you may be right. The 2 x 4.1 that occurred (after your prediction) may be indicative of something happening.

M4.5+ coastline of CA-OR border and upper North CA. 65%. Method: eartone.

Quite likely but nothing astounding in predicting that as this would be a normal event if it was offshore. You do not state if coastline is offshore or onshore.

M6+ Coastal S Peru from Pisco, Ica to Chile border, and/or from Siera Divisor to Parque Nacional, central Brazil border, and nearby area. 65%

A normal quake for the area. Not really a prediction. (ETA - I see you are meaning mag 6 to 10. Sorry that sort of range is not realistic. See below)

M7+ Multiple earthquakes at region of Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu and nearby, South Pacific ocean. 65%

OK, this one is something that does happen but there is usually no indication. We shall see. More detail on multiple and area required.

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

In light of the the fact that this would be normal, and the two Mag 8 quake may have shifted some stress, this would not surprise me. In other words not exactly a prediction.

Anti-prediction of M8+ in US, Canada and Mexico this year.

I assume you mean a prediction of no earthquakes of that magnitude. Not difficult as there is only a very slim chance of such a magnitude earthquake in those areas.

Method: ESP Extra Sensory Perception.
Max P = 65%; Average = 50%; Low = 40%
M6+, M7+… mean magnitude from 6 or 7 to 10.
Past earthquake forecasts’ results at @thorforecaster twitter.com/thorforecaster

Sorry that is a preposterous magnitude range. Bear in mind that each two pips, i.e. 6.3 to 6.5 represents and earthquake twice as strong then a range from 6 to (an unheard of) 10 would give the Mag 10 as 1,000,000 times stronger than the 6 and that is not a reasonable prediction.

My apology, I only have little time to reply few constructive discussions of experienced eq experts and will consider request of ATS members from other countries to reveal more specific locations.

Consider this a request for more specific locations as predictions that are mostly fairly good possibilities anyway are really of no value. A bit like saying there will be a mag 2 earthquake somewhere in California this month.

Picking such a huge range really destroys any credibility. It is a bit like throwing a dart at a dartboard. The chances are the you will hit the board and can then claim a success. What you need to be able to do is say you are going to hit the bull and then hit it.

I would find a prediction restricted to a 100km radius and in an 8 pip range (eg. 6.0 to 6.8 or 7.2 to 8.0) that came to fruition within a 1 month period something that could truly be described as a prediction.

Get a few of those under your belt - with a fail rate of no more than 33% and you could truly be said to have something otherwise your ranges and areas are just too wide to be classified as predictions.

only one comment....

reply to post by thorforecaster


HITs:
M5.9 – Java, Indonesia, 100 miles from SW Sumatra
Monday, June 4, 2012 at 11:18:15 UTC
Event ID
usb000a6bc

Magnitude 6.0 COASTAL SOUTHERN PERU
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 16:03:18 UTC
Event ID usb000a9lp
Exact location and magnitude

reply to post by truthseekr1111


Some people played dumb and intended not understand the meaning of M6+ or the meaning of coastline. So I must specify the range and as long as the magnitude is between M6 to maximum magnitude then it’s correct.

Thanks for your constructive idea, but frankly I don’t see you show the proof of the odd in statistics combining between magnitude M6+ and the specific locations for Indonesia and Peru as you said. If you can prove that, then I and readers maybe consider your statement is true.

I am doer. One practice is worth more than millions of words.

I know you seem to be an earthquake expert.
Do you accept the challenge to predict any M6+ at any specific area in Pacific Ring of Fire, to prove your hypothesis is correct? If you say no, then I have no comment further.

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Some people played dumb and intended not understand the meaning of M6+ or the meaning of coastline. So I must specify the range and as long as the magnitude is between M6 to maximum magnitude then it’s correct.

I understand the meaning I assure you.

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Thanks for your constructive idea, but frankly I don’t see you show the proof of the odd in statistics combining between magnitude M6+ and the specific locations for Indonesia and Peru as you said. If you can prove that, then I and readers maybe consider your statement is true.

what statement have I made about Indonesia and Peru?

Originally posted by thorforecaster
I am doer. One practice is worth more than millions of words.
I know you seem to be an earthquake expert.
Do you accept the challenge to predict any M6+ at any specific area in Pacific Ring of Fire, to prove your hypothesis is correct? If you say no, then I have no comment further.

edit on 7-6-2012 by thorforecaster because: typo

before i answer further... what is my "hypothesis"? please explain more about what you think I've "hypothesized"

I think is ok and funy to play with random RICHTER magnitude scale that at the end can mean nothing.... But what is the Mercalli or shindo scale you are expecting ?

reply to post by truthseekr1111


You need to show the statistical proof for your statements/comments or they are INVALID.

Secondly, you should prove M6+ always happen at any specific location of Indonesia and Peru or in PRF to convince me and readers to believe my forecasts were not the real prediction. I suggest you MAKING OWN PREDICTIONS to prove this.

Third, I assume the attached video doesn't belong to you, but do you have any proof of earthquake predictions for it?

This is 21st century, we dont believe anything without proof.

Originally posted by thorforecaster
reply to post by truthseekr1111

 

You need to show the statistical proof for your statements/comments or they are INVALID.

No where did I say anything you said etc was INVALID.

please show me where i stated that.

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Secondly, you should prove M6+ always happen at any specific location of Indonesia and Peru or in PRF to convince me and readers to believe my forecasts were not the real prediction.

where did I say your "forecasts" were not the real prediction?

are you sure you're responding to the right person?

Originally posted by thorforecaster
I suggest you MAKING OWN PREDICTIONS to prove this.

Okay... how about this one...

The next 7+ magnitude will hit within 300 miles of the 188 Ley-Line Grid and will occur between the 11th and 18th of this month

Narrowing down the Key dates and window +/- 1 day

13th & 16th

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Third, I assume the attached video doesn't belong to you, but do you have any proof of earthquake predictions for it?

that VIDEO contains several discoveries related to earthquakes, far more profound and important than just mere "predictions" which accurately predicted the date of the Mega-Quake that struck in MARCH.

and the PART 3 contains a successful prediction of the Mega-Quake that occurred in APRIL along with even more profound discoveries that challenges science's current understanding of Earthquakes, specifically MAJOR & Mega-Quakes, said to be random, impossible to predict, or following no pattern.

can you name anyone else that has named a date within 1 day of a MEGA-QUAKE two times in a row back to back?

Originally posted by thorforecaster
This is 21st century, we dont believe anything without proof.

I agree.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by thorforecaster

 

M6+ Coastal S Peru from Pisco, Ica to Chile border, and/or from Siera Divisor to Parque Nacional, central Brazil border, and nearby area. 65%

A normal quake for the area. Not really a prediction. (ETA - I see you are meaning mag 6 to 10. Sorry that sort of range is not realistic. See below)

M6+ Coastal SW Sumatra, Indonesia. 65%

In light of the the fact that this would be normal, and the two Mag 8 quake may have shifted some stress, this would not surprise me. In other words not exactly a prediction.

The comment statements are INVALID for lacking statistical support. Just a show off.

My topic is JUNE FORECAST and it is not DEBATE topic. Please courtesy make your own threads and leave this thread for June Forecast and find answer for your own question. 2 major earthquakes predictions' correction are nothing to people I knew.

Originally posted by thorforecaster
Possible

M4.5+ coastline of CA-OR border and upper North CA. 65%. Method: eartone.


Method: ESP Extra Sensory Perception.
Max P = 65%; Average = 50%; Low = 40%
M6+, M7+… mean magnitude from 6 or 7 to 10.
Past earthquake forecasts’ results at @thorforecaster twitter.com/thorforecaster

[color=limegreen]HIT
M5.1 offshore OR border, Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 05:40:57 AM at epicenter
Event ID usb000ajhp

New Forecast

Possible
M6+ remote islands, west Alaska, now through mid July. 50%
M5+ NE and east coast of North island, New Zealand, now through mid July, low 40%. Hopefully offshore along the plates’ line.

reply to post by thorforecaster

So I must specify the range and as long as the magnitude is between M6 to maximum magnitude then it’s correct.

You cannot state a range like that as I said. That is just total nonsense. It is perfectly obvious that you have little or no idea of the technical aspects of earthquakes.

M6+ remote islands, west Alaska,

You were 15 minutes the right side of that one I will agree. Good guess, but not really unlikely given that range you gave and the time span. It just happened that it was sooner rather than later.

The comment statements are INVALID for lacking statistical support. Just a show off.

I will give you due warning right now that if you take that tone with me I will pursue every single one of your guesses right to the very finest details. One person you cannot accuse of not having statistical evidence is me, as you will find out if you continue to be so rude. I will also require you to give better details than the loose and airy fairy Mag 6+ which as I have stated in meaningless.

My topic is JUNE FORECAST and it is not DEBATE topic. Please courtesy make your own threads and leave this thread for June Forecast and find answer for your own question. 2 major earthquakes predictions' correction are nothing to people I knew.

EVERYTHING is up for debate on ATS. Just remember that.

reply to post by thorforecaster

This is 21st century, we dont believe anything without proof.

Then provide some.

Practise what you preach.

reply to post by thorforecaster


Not the exact location and magnitude since you stated anything between 6 and 10. So since your 'prediction' of the end of May we have had

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
usgs,2012-06-19 15:56:33, 53.301, 171.636, 6.1, 18.4, Nr. Isls.
usgs,2012-06-17 20:32:20, 38.893, 141.945, 6.4, 31.8, Nr. E. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
usgs,2012-06-16 22:18:48, 15.574, 119.608, 6.1, 35.3, Luzon. Philippines
usgs,2012-06-09 21:00:18, 24.522, 122.337, 6.0, 70.9, Taiwan Region
usgs,2012-06-07 16:03:18, -15.919, -72.516, 6.0, 99.7, Southern Peru
usgs,2012-06-04 03:15:24, 5.507, -82.457, 6.3, 5.9, South Of Panama
usgs,2012-06-04 00:45:15, 5.305, -82.625, 6.3, 7.0, South Of Panama
usgs,2012-05-28 05:07:23, -28.061, -63.077, 6.7, 588.0, Santiago Del Estero. Argentina
usgs,2012-05-26 21:48:09, 26.901, 140.094, 6.0, 480.2, Bonin Isls. Japan Region

So what about the ones you missed then - in particular the 6.7 in Argentina. Oh sorry of course you stick to areas where a quake is likely, I forgot that.

reply to post by thorforecaster

HIT
M5.1 offshore OR border, Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 05:40:57 AM at epicenter
Event ID usb000ajhp

OK let me do a bit of analysis on that. Since you don't state a scale of magnitude I shall assume that you are guessing in Mw as most of the larger quakes use that scale. Therefore your guesstimate of a mag 4.5 in the offshore Oregon area gives us potentially down to a magnitude 3.8 mb since a (mag 3.8 mb *0.7813)+1.5175 = Mag 4.49 approximately in the Mw scale.

Doing a USGS circular search for Mag 3.8 mb + within 300 km (takes you back to shore) we find there have been 12 such events this year so there is a good chance of 2 in any one month.

There were 30 such events in 2011 so let's be fair and say that is about 2 per month as well.

That really makes your so called hit not very surprising doesn't it?