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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by XPLodER
...but the fact is that Ron Paul's support is a very small minority...they are very dedicated and passionate...but they are a very small group. All data supports this.
Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by GuidedKill
Well, I'm asking a sincere question. Hearing his video doesn't answer it. I'm looking at the actual process and procedure for electing a President. I'm reading the steps, numbers required and process that is simply the law for how this works. In looking at that and despite Dr Paul's optimism, I see no way under our system and within the laws of our nation that he can, at this stage, win. I simply see no viable path, of any sort, period.
I was hoping you did and despite the evident lack of it, and could explain how this can work. He might gain far more support at this stage if it was just the media saying he can't win and not the very rules and structure of the entire process at this point.
Now I see the Contention as an avenue...but if newt is dropping as the headlines today suggest, there isn't much left to contend. Romney has the numbers and Paul has nothing remotely close to what would be required to throw it into a floor fight in August. He COULD run as an independent, as his Hail Mary to win, but he personally said he would NOT do that and said it THIS cycle. Therefore, even if I were open to voting for him as an indie (Which I would have been) he's painted himself into a corner on that one that he can't get back out of without breaking his own word. That is what makes him popular. He doesn't break his word...ever..from what I can tell of his record.
So... Those are the two extreme remote options..and neither are really viable for the reasons listed. I agree our country is probably seeing the last fork in the road we'll ever get before collapse is imminent and a question of time.
I WANT Dr. Paul elected....I absolutely do. I simply cannot see ANY way that can happen.
Enlighten me and give everyone like me a reason to rethink the position and come back to the Paul camp. Heck..all I need is a viable POSSIBLE path. Dr. Paul wasn't favored when I was at his rally and I was doing other things in support..that didn't stop me. It wasn't until his chances, by the law and our system, dropped to ZERO...that I've accepted it isn't happening. If THAT is in error..and he DOES have a chance..just show me. Please.
Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by GuidedKill
I appreciate the reply. I'm hearing about the electoral college enough in my college class this semester to know the figures without even looking. I didn't know the current numbers for the RNC at the moment, so I looked. Lets see.. as of this afternoon and before tonight's finish results..
138 to Newt
72 to Paul
678 to Romney.
That is what is currently shown as assigned to them. There are, as of now, 1125 up for grabs. The number needed to win the nomination above what is already spoken for?
1006 needed for Newt
1072 needed for Paul
466 needed for Romney
I hear ya on the fact that...in blind numbers on a digital screen....Paul could..in theory... get 1072 of the remaining 1125 available. It would essentially require a blow out of every single remaining race, at every level and without a single failure or screw up of a major area. Not one. Romney, naturally, would have to outright lose every area in equal measure.
So.. Okay... You got me. I suppose for another few hours, technically in the strictest sense of for the more literal count of numbers...it's still possible, I'd wager even that radical outside sliver is gone in a few hours...but we'll see.
RNC Delegate Numbersedit on 24-4-2012 by Wrabbit2000 because: typo
Originally posted by RealSpoke
Paul had a nice buzz going on with him, that has now pretty much fizzled out. Less people are feeling enthusiastic for him, feeling that he will not win, which will just lead to them not vote.
Originally posted by XPLodER
if they dont pick ron paul and he decides to go third party for a run,
both dems and repubs will lose the majority of the votes they need.
if he decided to go third party after not winning the nomination,
he would draw support away from both parties in HUGE NUMBERS