Database shows rise in volcanic events in 2011, and an even sharper rise in 2012

Hello people.

Please, check this database: hisz.rsoe.hu...

You can make custom searchs in that database.

There are two different categories for the search: "Volcanic Activity" and "Volcanic Eruption". The two categories are NOT the same, and events that are shown in the "Volcanic Eruption" category are NOT shown in the "Volcanic Activity" category. So, we need to ADD the numbers of the two categories, to have an overall number.


I decided to check for the totals ("Activity" + "Eruption") for the years between 2006 and 2011.

This is what I have found:


2006 - 62

2007 - 68

2008 - 49

2009 - 58

2010 - 68

2011 - 112


As you can see, 2011 shows a rise in volcanic events ("Activity" + "Eruptions") compared to the average of the previous years. 112 events is well above that average.


But the year 2012 is even more "promissing".

If you do a search for the period between January 1 and March 27 (yesterday) you will find a total of 40 events ("Activity" + "Eruptions") in 2012 so far, in less than 3 months.

If we keep getting 40 every quarter, we are going to have 160 in 2012...

One more sign to watch?

One more "coincidence"?

man...you are crazy...go watch some tv...it will do wonders!

on a more serious note...has it reached the point of undeniability for all the people who wanna say this is normal? or will that moment only come after they're dead?

reply to post by GLontra


Scary stuff.

I want to know what is causing this increase. (don't we all.)

Hang on to your seat I think we are headed for a bumpy ride folks.

reply to post by GLontra


Not saying it is normal, not saying it is abnormal. It is several years of data only though. For a proper view of this, you would need to look at year on year records for several thousand years minimum - volcanoes work on geological time frames.

For all we know, this may actually be a very quite era for vulcanism and this uptick could still be way below what we should consider as "normal". Equally, we may be heading for a very active period.

Basically though, you cannot make a statement like that with any degree of accuracy given the few years worth of data included.

I can tell you up front that I don't need statistics, here in Chile we have had more eruptions the last 2 years than my whole lifetime (38 by the way) that I can remember. And just last week we have a yellow alert on another volcano (Volcan Llaima) so it looks like we will have a pretty eventfull year.

If it's not earthquakes, it's volcanos!!

These sorts of short term searches are prone to sampling issues. There are scientists that have studied this material for decades and have decades of material on which to rely.

www.volcano.si.edu...

This is in reference to large eruptions.

The frequency of these events has remained impressively constant for more than a century, and contrasts strongly with the apparent increase of smaller eruptions with time.

Finally, we plot below the record since reasonably comprehensive reporting of global volcanism began in the 1960s. Note that the number of confirmed erupting volcanoes has leveled off between 50 and 70 per year through the past four decades, and a linear regression line through the data indicates that volcanism has been virtually constant.

This issue has been raised many times in the last year and every time it boils down to not looking at the big picture.

reply to post by stereologist



Look, this is why I'm not going to discuss "long term data". Because I know you're going to use the good old argument of "it appears to be increasing because in the past it was underreported, and only recently all the minor eruptions started to be properly reported".

I won't go into that trap.

This thread is entirely based on SHORT TERM data. And this is what I want to discuss here.

In the year 2006, volcanic events were reported as accurately as in 2011. In 2006, the internet already existed, and the world population was already over 6 billion people.

So, the increase in volcanic events in 2011 and 2012, compared to 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 is a REAL PHENOMENON.



So, explain that to me:


Why in 2011, exactly the year before 2012 (THE YEAR OF THE MAYAN "PROPHECY") there was such a sharp increase in volcanic events, compared to the previous five years?

And why the first quarter of 2012 appears to indicate this year will be even more active than 2011?

WHY???

Is it just one more "coincidence"???

reply to post by GLontra


I know it's off-topic, but what Mayan prophecy would that be? Also how does volcanic activity correlate to that prophecy?

reply to post by GLontra


It is five years of data. That signifies neither an upturn (entirely possible) or anything else for that matter. All it shows is that there has been more activity for a very short period of time.

What i do not get is why people fail to grasp that geological time scales have no consideration of humanity and human time scales.

This has nothing to do with under reporting or anything like that, it is simply far too short a period to make any valid claims on.

Realistically, to study a volcanoes life cycle, you have to look at all data available on past eruptions and then theorise from that point. 5 years worth of data equates to about 2 seconds of a volcanoes life.

Put another way, would a judgement of you based on a 2 second study of your comments produce a realistic portrayal of you as a person? Of course it wouldn't (although some may argue otherwise).

Like i say, i come down on neither side of this argument really but to get a proper understanding, the whole picture has to be taken into account.

reply to post by GLontra

This thread is entirely based on SHORT TERM data. And this is what I want to discuss here.

That is why this is useless.

In the year 2006, volcanic events were reported as accurately as in 2011. In 2006, the internet already existed, and the world population was already over 6 billion people.

Irrelevant.

So, the increase in volcanic events in 2011 and 2012, compared to 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 is a REAL PHENOMENON.

A useless piece of information. The increase is not unusual. It fits well within the variance observed for these geological processes over time.

Why in 2011, exactly the year before 2012 (THE YEAR OF THE MAYAN "PROPHECY") there was such a sharp increase in volcanic events, compared to the previous five years?

It's meaningless. There is no sharp increase when viewed in terms of the processes themselves.

Your claim here is that if you look at a random process you can see things if you place blinders on yourself and restrict yourself to examining artificially limited subsequences of the data.

That is what you are doing.

For the rest of us that want to see the big picture we can see that volcanic activity is sporadic. We also see that mixing small and large events is probably not meaningful. We also see that over decades time there is "virtually constant" volcanism. We also see that this rise is typical of the decades chart.

reply to post by stereologist


But don't let facts get in the way.........

I won't answer any post from stereologist in this thread any more, since he thinks he can choose which data is "relevant" and which data is not.

If the DATA don't fit his beliefs, he says it's not relevant.

The FACTS are in the way of the nay-sayers. A global, worldwide, surge in volcanic activity in the year of the predicted "Armageddon". The only thing they can do is to deny and ignore the FACTS, ot to say that FACTS are "not relevant".

The simple fact is that what is being done here is cherry picking by:
1. restricting the data
2. by avoiding the conclusions of those that have a great deal more evidence
3. by mixing different volcanic events together

This certainly is a good example of, "Garbage in, garbage out."

In addition to the garbage out we have the claim of a predicted armageddon.

Sorry, there are no such predictions exception from new age hoaxers.

reply to post by GLontra


while i agree that mom has woken up and is about to stretch, yawn and shake all the fleas off...i do agree with stereologist that looking at a small sampling of years isn't a very scientific way to make a "hypothesis".

forget charts and graphs...all i need is the connection i have with mom to know she is no longer sleeping and is about to start kickin...but if you're going to use science to back your argument, you do kind of have to be scientific about it...

reply to post by ICEKOHLD


The significance of 2011's surge in volcanism depends entirely on the long-term standard deviation of global events. If the long-term year-on-year standard deviation is small, then the recent increase may very well be significant. Conversely, if the long-term standard deviation for volcanism events is large (35, for example), then the increase seen in 2011 is less than 3 standard deviations more than the recent average number of events and not significant until more data is collected over a longer time.

This is science after all.

Best regards,
Z

2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 = FIVE years.

Why 2011 could not be a "calm" year just like the five previous years?

And why 2012 could not be calmer than 2011?


But let's wait and see. We have a long year ahead. Sooner or later, or dear skeptics will have to face some very hard facts.

Well, the problem is: it seems that even if we have a huge event in 2012, with very serious global consequences, like a "volcanic winter", for example, the skeptics will STILL say that it has "nothing to do with the Mayan calendar" and with all the predictions made, and was "just a coincidence".

That's how the mind of our "skeptics" work: if nothing happens, they are right, if something very rare and very huge happens, that was just a "coincidence".

reply to post by GLontra


now i can agree with that! again...i truly do believe that things are about to start getting crazy but it has very very very little to do with anything mayan...all i have to do is go outside alone...sit...and listen to mom...she isn't happy with us, as a species...no charts or graphs necessary...

reply to post by GLontra

2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 = FIVE years.

Why 2011 could not be a "calm" year just like the five previous years?

And why 2012 could not be calmer than 2011?

Are you stating that your expectations do not match what happened?

This sort of speculation assumes that there is a pattern in volcanism.

But let's wait and see. We have a long year ahead. Sooner or later, or dear skeptics will have to face some very hard facts.

The same has been stated thousands of time to date. If we follow the success rate of previous such claims we would have to conclude that this is just another failure.

Well, the problem is: it seems that even if we have a huge event in 2012, with very serious global consequences, like a "volcanic winter", for example, the skeptics will STILL say that it has "nothing to do with the Mayan calendar" and with all the predictions made, and was "just a coincidence".

That's how the mind of our "skeptics" work: if nothing happens, they are right, if something very rare and very huge happens, that was just a "coincidence".

So this is your response to having been shown to have made a flawed argument.

This claim is as flawed as the volcano claim.