Mex, NM, CA, WA VOLCANOs AWAKENING, Scientists warn new data proves 'MegaQuake' likely

Originally posted by JohnVidale
reply to post by MamaJ

 

Nothing in the ongoing earthquakes is more than mild indication of normal fluctuations in activity. In terms of level of alert serious enough to take action, the only recent changes are to the long term rates.

We had a workshop in Seattle last week, and POSSIBLE changes to the hazard map include bumping up the chance of the Cascadia-wide M9 by 20-40% by taking account of the fact that it hasn't happened since 1700AD (from 1 in 500 per year due to the observation of 20 quakes in the last 10,000 years to 1 in 300 per year). Also possible are bumping up the chance of an M8-8.5 in southern Cascadia (well south of Portland) due to Chris Goldfinger finding evidence of such quakes in the offshore turbidites (sands), dropping the danger more than 100km from the coast due to the observation that the waves in the Japan earthquake last year attenuated more quickly than expected with distance.

No cosmic changes to risk, in the scientists view.

Hi John,

A few questions for you, if you don't mind.

I know that bedrock loses its consistency over the seasons due to temperature change from a damp and cold winter, to a hot summer. Is it possible with the recent strange weather we've been experiencing (Its been on and off summer weather to freezing cold day by day here, literally 80F one day, 40F the next) , that it could contribute to releasing the NA plate from Cascadia, causing this "mega quake" sooner rather than later? I ask this because the escarpment I live near has broken off several times this year due to this, which has not happened since I've been living here (26 years). I'm not sure if the earth at that depth acts the same.

Also, I have heard that strong EQ's can trigger other strong EQ's in other fault lines. If so, would the Cascadia subduction zone, if released, affect any other major fault line in the US? Like Madrid? Or even affect Yellowstone's caldera?

Thanks!

We think the action in earthquakes is too deep to respond to any annual cycling in the near-surface properties. Maybe the loads from a big snowpack or annual variation in ocean currents could trigger tiny changes in the timing of earthquakes, but even that is a stretch.

Earthquakes can trigger nearby volcanoes, and volcanic activity can trigger earthquakes, but the frequency of such triggering is small. So an M9 in Cascadia could push a Cascadian volcano into action, but probably it won't. Similarly, it could trigger big earthquakes in the crust, such as on the Seattle fault or the South Whidbey Island fault, but that is even less likely.

Originally posted by JohnVidale
We think the action in earthquakes is too deep to respond to any annual cycling in the near-surface properties. Maybe the loads from a big snowpack or annual variation in ocean currents could trigger tiny changes in the timing of earthquakes, but even that is a stretch.

Earthquakes can trigger nearby volcanoes, and volcanic activity can trigger earthquakes, but the frequency of such triggering is small. So an M9 in Cascadia could push a Cascadian volcano into action, but probably it won't. Similarly, it could trigger big earthquakes in the crust, such as on the Seattle fault or the South Whidbey Island fault, but that is even less likely.

In your personal experience, do you feel there are precursors appearing recently that would point to the subduction zone slipping any time soon? Are there even precursors?

reply to post by Ryanssuperman


I've seen nothing alarming. The recent M3-4 earthquakes near the Oregon coast could indicate a little action, as could the Eureka M5.5 and off-Vancouver Island M6, but they don't raise the odds much. Similarly the recent 60km deep events under the Puget Sound are fun to watch, but hard to lose sleep over.

There are a variety of potential precursors (in the sense that they might raise the odds of big quakes) - slow elip episodes, big quakes on the perimeter of the locked zone, even volcanic activity, but nothing significant has happened recently. And we have no assurance of seeing precursors, even were a big earthquake impending.

Just as a person with some experience living 25 miles from the summit of Mt Rainier, I can definitely say that this is one very awake volcano- an accident looking for a place to happen. I know of a 4.0 quake a few years back that I was in myself, remember the pre earthquake noise. The bad part for Seattle is they have a very very inadequate highway system, limiting the ability of the region's 5 million inhabitants to escape by vehicle. On the north and south sides of the region are 2 rivers, both fed by Mt Rainier's glaciers and snowpack. To the west, Puget Sound and the Cascadia fault. To the east, is, of course, Mt Rainier, with it's weakest side towards the metro area. I have personally travelled all over that region, by car and on foot, having hiked the Wonderland Trail around the volcano, and having personal friends in the area, who's land I have watched go up and down for many years. The lahars from this volcano reach Puget Sound, so no one is safe if this one decides to blow.

If I am correct, the last time the Cascadia slipped, the land dropped by 6 feet, as evidenced by ancient forests- or what's left of them. The danger in the Cascadia isn't so much how big the quake is, but how long it will last, as it rips up through the western region. It won't be a quick event. Again, escaping this tragic event could be tough, with the road system the state has.

The New Madrid fault I know less about, but I have seen it firsthand, and I believe it has the capacity to do as much or more damage than the Cascadia, given the populations along that region now.

Yellowstone is the one that concerns me most, were it to go, the world would definitely be depopulated in a major way, of all species. Even way up near the Canadian border in North Dakota, there is a layer of ash from Yellowstone that can be readily seen near the Missouri River at any place. This layer is from a foot to several feet thick, depending on where one is. I have seen and have pictures of fault lines in the same region, so this area is not immune to its own siesmic activity, and now with all the oil frakking going on, I am really starting to wonder if they really know what they are doing to the earth.

Just thought I'd comment on this from a personal experience point of view, having travelled at least a couple of the regions extensively and lived at a couple more for several years.

Peace!
SK

Before the magma comes to the surface.. there is always a quiet time as the buildup occurs.. watch for the quiet.. because if you're only watching for the background harmonics.. you won't know about the eruption until IT ERUPTS

MT RANIER Volcanic Heat Signatures:




MT RANIER Quake Swarms:




MT ST HELENS Volcano Uncorked:




DR BRAND Preparing for PNW Mega Volcanic Eruptions:




YELLOWSTONE SuperVolcano Eruption will Exterminate America via Toxic Ash Instantly:








WA - Significantly Increased Seismic Activity!:

Yep, No doubt about it.

Being alive is definitely going to kill us.

Hi, the news says that a Eq has taken place in chile 7,2 says the USGS, and 30 kms deep. no damage yet informed, and the chilenian services says it was 6,4.

www.lanacion.com.ar...

www.europapress.es...

*Madison Wi*
around 11:00 am today there was a brief earthquake

Those with TV's and time, the history channel is just now starting a program called Megaquake 10.0

just FYI

Fantastic thread with really great videos, I almost never post in the earthquake threads but this one got me good.
I feel I know a lot more now than I did just a couple of hours ago.
S&F and many thanks for the informative piece you provided to us all here.
Regards, Iwinder

Thanks everyone for the information and links. To me, growing up in Wyoming, I guess I got over the "fear", so to speak (the "worry" maybe?). More or less curious about all this more than worried, anymore.

So, that out of the way, I couldn't help it... the sarcastic kid in me just thought this was the best reply ever.

Originally posted by jimnuggits
Yep, No doubt about it.

Being alive is definitely going to kill us.

So much classier than the usual jerk-hole responses around here of "why all the fear mongering?" Good reminder that if it goes, it goes. Not like we can put our foot on the edge and keep it from sliding like some carpet. (although, it would be awesome if we had tech to release the tension gradually, maybe causing a couple years' worth of lower than 2.0 baby rumbling.)

Looks like Chile's 5.1 M and 7.2 M have woken one more monster...

reply to post by BiggerPicture


Cool video!

Thanks for sharing.

Originally posted by eriktheawful
reply to post by BiggerPicture

 

Cool video!

Thanks for sharing.

I'd like to second that.

reply to post by BiggerPicture


Very nice! Thanks for the vid!

Cheers,

Cascadia *New Info*- Most Violent Shaking Will Occur Inland on Deep Part of Fault

Originally posted by antmax21
reply to post by samlf3rd

 

Not sure why you mentioned FOX News?...
FOX news has their own opinions just like we do here. Many have predicted a Mega Quake is coming...but when is the answer?...

That is a lot of locations CA, NM, WA, MEX...According to that 188 Day Theory ...the circle is moving upwards towards Western USA. Which would make sense with these locations .....but we cannot predict Quakes. As for Volcanoes erupting, that is something we have a better idea on predicting. Prior to Mt. St. Helen's the activity of gases being spewed became more frequent and larger gave a better idea of when it may be erupting. Yet you cannot pin point an exact time...

I don't know of anything going on in NM...we have very little, rather small, seismic activity here...and it is somewhere between infrequent and rare....if there had been any kind of activity in the state, it would already be going around like wildfire...we get bored out here...any news is something to do...and today...nothing to do so far....

I'll check anyway.....but I think it is just fear tactics...last ditch attempts to keep us in chains....I never wore their chains of fear...I ain't going for it now! It is a beautiful day and very possibly the first day of the rest of our lives....they can go jump in a lake, I say...or a volcano...whatever they want!

Everything seems business as usual at USGS for the last 7 days and also for the last 8 - 30 days.

What's funny, though......is that the last eq in NM was only 22 miles from where I live! But it was just a 2.9...and it was on 3/18...no one must have felt it because I didn't hear anything about it.

"You can just smell that Sulfur, comin' up"

Kinda disturbing considering residents in quite a few states in US are complaining about a lingering, building smell of sulfur.

A natural source of spring water, in the middle of a barren, desolate place. Now, this is normally very still water. Would you believe what is causing this, is an earthquake 2000 MILES AWAY?! (In Oaxaca, Mexico 7.3) This is what happens to the water underground, that far away.

Apparently 300,000 especially scientists knww something was gonna go down after smells of sulfur for some time, back then and fled, ahead:

At least 300,000 people reside in Ensenada. Among other things discussed was that they leave the city as soon as possible. It has been revealed to us that in fact many of the foreign scientists working at the CICESE and other well-connected individuals in the Baja California elite have left Ensenada