Saints won't have Sean Payton when they face Cowboys

Saints won't have Sean Payton when they face Cowboys

www.dallasnews.com

New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton was suspended without pay for the 2012 season by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell , and former Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was banned indefinitely on Wednesday because of the team's bounty program that targeted opposing players.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Thus ends my watching of the NFL....

The Thread guidelines state their has to be a conspiracy angle for this to be posted here...

Well here it is...

First off in 2009 me and my roommate played a nasty game call the play... it was the cardinals versus the Raiders...

we started calling the plays taking turns calling them... for the rest of the first and other three quarters... We based it on the mathematics we felt existed due to it being a rigged game (read up on game theory)

we only between the two of us missed three plays.... three...

Now speed up to the cutler incident, when the Bears quarterback forgot he was a man and walked off the field....

He was not hurt, bribe went through my mind...

Recently, due to injuries suffered by non-professional wanna-bes, sports teams have wussed out... No offense you do not want your child hurt, do not let them play... simple...

If you as a parent decide the fleeting glory of childhood football is more important then your child... well enjoy the consequences...

The League is dealing with old injured players suing them because they decided to keep the paychecks... now having blown their money and with no glory left...just saying

Then we come to this... the Saints are accused of putting bounties on opposing players...

It sound like a conspiracy to me...
A)the Saints aint the only team doing it
b) it makes the division they are in weaker
c)legally make sit seem the league is 'doing the right thing'

My last point was the last game the saints or 49er's played... It seemed like big point shaving.. (yes I called my friend and we got the last quarter I missed 3 he missed two)

like politics it is rigged and this is the final straw for me....

www.dallasnews.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Aside from the morality of the issue at hand, I for one am happy to hear this news. That being said I do have a bias to the topic as I'm a Buccaneer's fan...Go Bucs!

reply to post by ripcontrol


from the main article

The NFL said payoffs went to 22 to 27 defensive players for inflicting game-ending injuries on targeted opponents, including quarterbacks Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. “Knockouts” were worth $1,500 and “cart-offs” $1,000, with payments doubled or tripled for the playoffs.

All payouts for specific performances in a game, including interceptions or causing fumbles, are against NFL rules. The NFL warns teams against such practices before each season, although in the aftermath of the revelations about the Saints, current and former players from various teams talked about that sort of thing happening frequently — although not on the same scale as the NFL found in New Orleans.

Yes they had one great season.... they won a superbowl...

Here is the kicker...

The league has something in place for this already... they are called refs with flags... Late hits are punished.. immediately and well guess what... there was only one I recall during that season...

next you have this group of guys who are paid to guard you... They are Linemen.... they protect the QB from the defense... as well as the rb's...

So what I am left...

A conspiracy.... I just cant seem to ferret out if it is over money or if it is pretty boys crying...

My gut is that it is over money... look at manning and denvers behavior...


adding in this edit...
My other little thing here is that these guys are paid millions ... millions to play a game... they do so of their own free will

I really do think this is about money but I have to go find a friend who warned me about the last lockouts the NFL had.... he said something over season extensions argument...

reply to post by ripcontrol


The conspiracy is that the home team never goes to the superbowl.

Originally posted by ripcontrol


we started calling the plays taking turns calling them... for the rest of the first and other three quarters... We based it on the mathematics we felt existed due to it being a rigged game (read up on game theory)

we only between the two of us missed three plays.... three...

I am interested in this. Could you please supply a little more information on this "Game Theory".

reply to post by ripcontrol


I'm interested in your theory as I believe there is some substance to your claim....I'm interested in hearing more about it in detail...meaning how can I make some money off it!




Rigging games wouldn't be unheard of either.. after all there is proof of it in both baseball and soccer off the top of my head. Based on that alone who is to say the same thing doesn't happen in other sports.

Game theory

Game theory is a method of studying strategic decision making. More formally, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers."[1] An alternative term suggested "as a more descriptive name for the discipline" is interactive decision theory.[2] Game theory is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology, as well as logic and biology. The subject first addressed zero-sum games, such that one person's gains exactly equal net losses of the other participant(s). Today, however, game theory applies to a wide range of class relations, and has developed into an umbrella term for the logical side of science, to include both human and non-humans, like computers. Classic uses include a sense of balance in numerous games, where each person has found or developed a tactic that cannot successfully better his results, given the other approach.

Modern game theory began with the idea regarding the existence of mixed-strategy equilibria in two-person zero-sum games and its proof by John von Neumann. Von Neumann's original proof used Brouwer's fixed-point theorem on continuous mappings into compact convex sets, which became a standard method in game theory and mathematical economics. His paper was followed by his 1944 book Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, with Oskar Morgenstern, which considered cooperative games of several players. The second edition of this book provided an axiomatic theory of expected utility, which allowed mathematical statisticians and economists to treat decision-making under uncertainty.

Long story short, technically you should be unable to predict the outcome of equal matches with that accuracy.... Well if you alter the playing field by changing a constant....like say point shaving or game rigging.... you end up with a mathematically predictable model....

my friend who is a little smarter then me just combined our knowledge and started calling the plays.. we didnt put anything down on paper but it made sense....

we made a lot of customer in the restaurant mad at first then they started it themselves.... just not as accurately...

reply to post by ripcontrol


Is there a general formula/equation to this game theory that is easily applicable to football?

Doesn't matter, Cowboys suck. They'll need alot more than Saints minus Payton to stand a chance.

Lived in Texas my whole life but damn they make it hard to be cowboys fan. My 2 cents. Get rid of Jerry and they may stand a chance. His glory days or over (although he did just build us a badA stadium) Now he just micromanages and hurts the team. Jason Garrett hasn't impressed me much either.

As far as the bounty program. Nothing new. In highschool and college you get helmet stickers for knocking dudes out. Unfortunately stickers don't appease the egos of nfl players

Now...More importantly. Manning to the Broncos?!?! wtf! and Tebow to the Jets?!

Originally posted by ripcontrol
Game theory

[Long story short, technically you should be unable to predict the outcome of equal matches with that accuracy.... Well if you alter the playing field by changing a constant....like say point shaving or game rigging.... you end up with a mathematically predictable model....

my friend who is a little smarter then me just combined our knowledge and started calling the plays.. we didnt put anything down on paper but it made sense....

we made a lot of customer in the restaurant mad at first then they started it themselves.... just not as accurately...

OK ... so how you would account for point shaving or game rigging?

reply to post by Ericthenewbie


no, because we got hit with diminishing returns because at the end of the we where amateurs.... we combined gut instinct , on site observation and what we knew about football... he would call a ply I would mostly agree with him 9/10 ths the time...

(you have to track this better for formulaic results and predictions)

As long as the mods dont object and re-move the thread ...

The idea is described as bet on number two...

your fantasy football calculation program(stats runner) should be good enough just do a few years of the past first... go play by play instead of game by game...

measure the results of the stats versus the actual game....

you should notice a significant drift from stats to reality I can explain more if yall want...

the overreaction here by nfl did piss me off...

It is merely highly refined statistical probability....


note this is the more numbers approach and differs from the psychic feel we worked on... but we agreed we where calling numbers from observations, per what a skeptic would see... then from the ether....

reply to post by underduck


ok there are several ways but the best place to start is this...

I am me... my roommate at the time my friend is a former coast guard, former nuclear medicine tech, and most important former prison guard...

I can smell a crook nine tenths the time and well, he babysat them...


what your referring to is different

I am assuming you want a formula you can wager on...

Predictioneer

it is a book on amazon

Knowing what will happen around the world can be awfully useful. Forewarned, after all, is forearmed, whether the questions of the day are about business, national security, or our day-to-day lives. The Predictioneer’s Game provides a reliable way to anticipate the future, one you can experiment by using the online version of the game’s program on my website. Suppose, for instance, you want to work out likely future developments in Iran. You can build a data set and test it just as I have done.

We all know that Iran’s Ayatollahs faced a pretty stiff challenge following that country’s June presidential election. As I predicted in February 2009. the Qum clerics, sometimes called the Quietists, are quiet no more and Iran’s Supreme Leader is facing the first real political challenge since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Iran is in for more challenging times in the months to come. You might wonder, what is likely to happen to relations between Iran’s and Iraq’s Shia-dominated governments now that the U.S. is withdrawing most of its forces from Iraq? How will the evolving relations between Iran and Iraq shape the interests of the United States in the region? These are some of the questions I try to answer in The Predictioneer’s Game.

I conclude that if the U.S. fully withdraws, then Iran and Iraq will form a strategic partnership and Iran might even intervene militarily on behalf of Iraq’s Shia government to put down a rising political threat from the pro-Baathist, anti-American, Sunni Vice President of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi. Hashimi’s power is predicted to increase markedly while Prime Minister Maliki’s declines if President Obama decides not to maintain 50,000 American troops in Iraq. If, however, he chooses to keep 50,000 or more troops in Iraq after August 2010, then Iran and Iraq will not forge a strategic alliance, Hashimi’s growing power will be contained, and Maliki will remain in charge. And in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei’s power will continue to decline while the military, the moneyed interests and the Qum clerics will become the backbone of a more moderate, more pragmatic Iranian regime.

Predicting the future--whether you are concerned about Iran or about how best to settle a family crisis--is not all that mysterious. If people do what they think is best for themselves--and who doesn’t--then, with game theory’s help, we can anticipate what they will do. Working out other people’s incentives means also working out how altering their costs or benefits can be used to change their behavior and that, after all, is the essence of predictioneering.--Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Youll have to construct a mathematical model and test it on the past games and season... Try and refine it till you give up and decide that it impossible... then go back and add in the point shaving... the above book will cover the model quite well... you need an accurate version of driving factors for the owners...


the whole thing is why this was in ATS not BTS.... no offense but I saw it as a control measure... This punishment is not a punishment, but a league alteration... it weakens the saints side so the other division has better numbers and more chances to win and be stronger...

reply to post by Rexamus


everyone is saying the same thing...


Look at the detriot lions... they have a rep no for being the dirtiest team...

I know in HS they did the same thing....

reply to post by underduck


as for a second answer....

past history....

I do not feel I answered your question appropriately and i do not know why... let me fumble around here a few minutes and try to translate it...

Statistically... performance anomalies... this is when you make your statistical constructs....


I feel you deserve a math answer while I mention an art...

First develop your instinct up till you can call it 80% of the time accurately...

Practice Practice....

set runs and practice...



remember when you look back through try and outline interested parties... and who they influence, where, and how

League-
Owner-
Management
Fans
players
coaches
refs

when someone is cheating, performance anomalies appear... look back through tapes and games, and use all publicly available info... dont forget that every ref is not new... neither are coaches...

Refs can push a game in a direction of one of the performers is doing to well or is off script... demoralize a teammates team during a time when a palyer will not play ball

(watch ealier wrestling from 80s to 90s) thats the I wanted to add earlier

the whole set should enable you to construct an accurate view of what is going on...


I am expecting a scandal anytime that will point to this activity.. the words will be that it is limited to the busted team....

what will be going on is that owners will have cut deals to improve sells... with each other...

Make sure you include this factor...Teams sales and performance and play types...

example : think of the miraculous reception

reply to post by ripcontrol


Speaking of the Lions and HS. I played against Matthew Stafford in HS. Beat us by three in the semi finals

reply to post by ripcontrol


This is fascinating to me. I think I understand the basics of what you are talking about. I have a friend who works at Fermilab and is familiar with Game Theory who I am going to run this by when I get some data together. Basically you are saying, take a large set of data going back as many years as possible and start to look for anomalies and patterns. I didnt think to include the owners and "interested parties" like you pointed out.

Thanks for the info. This will be an interesting project.

reply to post by underduck


make sure you pick up the book from the library or half price books... I got mine for 8.31 (half priced special)

you might be able to get along with your experiment quicker... he suggest a different tact in negotiations... and one that does not require all knowledge be present...

great video...

The nfl in court said what?????

The fix is in ... Amazon

Professional sports in America: it’s all about fair play and the goal of winning championships. At least that’s the spin. But could it be a massive showbiz operation filled with greedy owners, crooked referees, and coddled players, all with the unstated goal of grabbing as much money as possible?

Author Brian Tuohy provides a full-sourced saga of the corruption that has infected the storied histories of the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, and NASCAR.

With reality obscured by a complacent and often complicit sports media, The Fix Is In shines a light on a hidden history of clandestine arrangements between television networks and sports leagues, all against a background of drinking, drugging, and crime.

and..

The 30 greatest sports conspiracies of all time

In The 30 Greatest Sports Conspiracy Theories of All Time, long-time TV sports statistician and self-professed skeptic Elliott Kalb examines the most notable conspiracies in sports history, from Major League baseball, the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA, Olympics, NASCAR, the horse track and the prize ring.
Separating fact from myth, Kalb attempts to determine which of these long-held conspiracy theories hold water, and which ones fall flat under scrutiny. Ranking the conspiracies from 1 to 30 and the likelihood of each conspiracy from 1 to 5, Kalb boldly asks:

and another site..

is the NFL rigged

For years, I have heard people saying that the NFL has a few teams it favors, and a few teams it dislikes, and that the league has instructed officials to help favored teams, and pick on disfavored teams. I had written this off as sour grapes from the fans of losing teams, but what they say seems more believable all the time. If it is true, game rigging would be very easy. A few missed calls here and a few bogus calls there would be all it would take.

In the divisional playoff game between the New York Jets and the San Diego Chargers, I don't think the Jets were ever called for holding, though I saw offensive linemen with two fists full of blue jersey several times. They had gotten away with the same against the Cincinnati Bengals just one week before that. Pass interference being called or not called is another thing that frequently leaves me scratching my head.

and...

Ask above top secret

extra research- (nfl is fixed...)


and
The 10 plus games.....

Two interesting things occurred prior to the start of the NFL's 2010 season. In the first, the company that determines television ratings, Nielsen Media Research, conducted a study to determine the most popular teams in the NFL.

The top five consisted of the Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chicago Bears, the New York Giants, and the Green Bay Packers.

The second took the form of a little covered court case. In it, a New York Jets season-ticket holder and lawyer named Carl J. Mayer sued the New England Patriots over the Spygate scandal.

blah blah blah...good stuff ... but

This does not mean league rules have to be followed in that game. If a team cheats, if referees miss calls, or if the game is outright rigged, you the ticketholder have no recourse. You paid to see a football game, and you saw a football game.

then jump down some more

If your ticket doesn't entitle you to a fair game, how much right does the fan watching at home possess? Couldn't the league manipulate games to create more interest in its product in the very way "reality" TV programs do?

This is exactly what I argue is possible. There is no law preventing the NFL from fixing its own games.

If, as the employer, the NFL orders its employees (referees, coaches, or players) to conduct themselves in certain ways during certain games, no law is being broken.

reply to post by ripcontrol



an ATS thread...

a lot of material from this thread on how NBA was fixed
Are professional sports predetermined?




more the fix is in...

trick shot quarterbacks....


calling it crazy seems interesting....



author the Fix is in...


So I went to the authors website

Home- the Fix is in

How much of your life have you spent watching televised sports, attending games, talking about sports, listening to sports radio, checking websites for updated scores, and then taking in SportsCenter or another highlight show at the end of the day? How much of your thoughts have been consumed with the upcoming game? How many nights have you stayed awake wondering how your team blew that huge lead? How often have you reminisced about that impossible comeback win as if you played in the game? How much money have you emptied out of your pocket on tickets, DirectTV packages, bets, jerseys, hats, trading cards, autographs and overpriced beers over the course of your lifetime?

What if all of that time, emotion, and money has been wasted on a lie? What if the action on the field isn’t what it appears to be? What if you, and millions others like you, have been duped – outright lied to – by those franchises you hold so dear to your heart, all in the name of making an easy buck?

it appears that the fix is in...