Model on food prices and social unrest predicts crisis in 2013

It looks like the new era starting after Dec 21 2012 is going to be a bit harsh.

“...consistent with bubble and crash market oscillations.” The next bubble is expected by the end of 2012."
also....
"And the projected time until the next food price bubble is about a year.” The results will be dramatically higher prices than encountered thus far.

"These videos illustrate the correlation between increasing costs of food and worldwide food riots, especially from 2000 until the present day." -----

necsi.edu...

And since we all know that TPTB heavily manipulate all financial markets, it could be that the "crisis" is planned:

"Our analysis shows that dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and corn to ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following, as well as shifting assets between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns."

necsi.edu...

When a market is positioned to move sharply, all it takes is a little nudge to cause the general investing population to jump aboard and ramp prices up to bubble levels.
Since NESCI presented the above study at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the pump is being primed.

reply to post by doug r


I do not fear hunger nor food prices, as I have ancient technology that it seems has been lost!
I can use a piece of lead to gather meats of all flavors and I can put these pods in the dirt and they spring forth with food, out of the ground!!
Yes, hunt and garden and never worry again, simple as that, it really is.
With true social unrest come deaths, just avoid the first few months of this and you should be good.
For this I have more ancient technology, A Mason jar!

(Edit)
Got you a star, gratz on your first thread.
It's nice to see an opinion from the members, although I lurked for a long time before I opened my opinion.

Welcome aboard, this is a particularly solid first thread. (Actually, it's more solid than many of the threads here.)

This is another case where I wish I had more information.

necsi.edu...

The model they created looked at food prices from 2004 to 2011.

There was a big jump during the last half of 2007 through 2008. The modellers said this was due to speculators and ethanol. Apparently the economic and political situations weren't considered significant enough to be included.

In 2009 and 2010, food prices fell below the model's predicted level. In the second half of 2010 it jumped up again to the previous hugh level. In 2011 prices fell back to below the prediction. The claim now is that food prices are too low and will jump up again soon.

It sounds like they're saying food prices go up and down and it's getting time for another "up."

While we can't stand much more bad news, this doesn't seem unnatural or the results of a conspiracy, just bad timing.

Carry on.

with true inflation at 8.3% i have no doubt the FPI will be on an uptrend unseen before, especially when you factor a few things into the equation as possibilities. one being an eminent turmoil in the mideast, the EU looking ahead at rough seas, the weather effects (droughts\floods) from our current and future CME blasts from solar flairs, the eminent rising fuel prices, the dollar loosing value and so on.