The Next Economic Bubble: Immigration

Today I would like to discuss a very important and controversial topic that plays a key role in our economic and cultural paradigm.

Immigration

My only caveat to you is that I am not interested in discussing the politics behind illegal immigration. There are plenty of other threads for that. I am here to pass along information that I have received and wish to discuss the facts/theories surrounding that information in particular.

All that being said, let begin by telling you that I work in the foodservice/hospitality industry. Over the years I have worked with many Mexican immigrants. Of course, each person is different individually, but as a whole the Mexican people are a very honorable and respectful culture. To do what I do, I have a crew of 6 Mexican women (legal immigrants) varying in ages and states from within Mexico.

Today one of the girls was talking about how she had just sent money to her Mother in Mexico and was excited that by the end of the year she will be able to go home. This came as a shock to me because this individual is very important to our operation and would not be replaced easily.

So we began to talk and I asked her why she was going home. She said that over the years she had been in America she had earned quite a lot of money. Not vast wealth by American standards, but over time the money she remitted back to Mexico kept adding up. Last year she had taken a trip home to Chihuahua and was able to take a small portion of the money she sent to her Mother and buy a large 4 bedroom home for her family, including her parents.

She paid cash! No need for financing and had enough leftover so that she could work 10 hours a week at her uncle’s café and still live quite nicely for the rest of her life….and then be able to pass the house along to the next generation.

I was then informed by the girls that all except two had done the same thing! They sent their money back to Mexico and bought homes with very small portions of the savings. I guess housing is nice, cheap and in many areas there is either no property tax at all, or very little. This one girl in particular told me that the taxes she paid on this home were only 300 pesos for a year!

Anyway, they proceeded to ask me if I had noticed that immigration was slowing down, and many others were going back to Mexico. Of course, immigration has been slowing down since 2008, but I thought it was cyclical.

They said that many immigrants are having problems surviving in this American economy, as we all are, and that there is no point in staying here to work their lives away when many people have remitted enough money back to Mexico to live good lives without laboring endlessly.

Although Mexico has a different economic structure, it is much easier to live there I guess. It is easy to find a job that you can work 10-15 hours a week. The price of food and other items are very low, and the people exchange goods and services for other’s goods and services if they do not have the funds. In most areas there is no need to even own a car since the local markets and jobs are right there within their communities. America is no longer as advantageous for immigrants as it once was, even though some Americans believe they are only here for social handouts by the government.

Needless to say, I think we can all be jealous of that easy-living type of lifestyle!

They continued to tell me that if things keep going the way they have been in America, we may see larger numbers of immigrants returning to Mexico, more so than we have already seen, in order to live a simpler, better life. In many cases, that was their plan to begin with.

Now this may not be new information for many of you, but I think there are some consequences that ensue that may be detrimental to our already fragile economy.

Let’s say that the American economy continues to falter and larger numbers of immigrants begin to go home. Not only have they already sent billions of dollars (possibly trillions in pesos) into Mexico, but they will take whatever wealth they currently have here and take it with them. That is a large amount of economic activity that will be stripped from our economy.

Next issue would be the void these people leave in the workplace. Now I know that some people will make the claim that this would be a good thing…that Americans could easily fill the void, but I disagree. In the best of times, we have around 4-5% unemployment even with a large immigrant section of workers. If we took away potentially millions of workers, there would be a large void that we could not replace instantly. This would have a dramatic effect on many different industries, and businesses would drop like flies.

Another aspect of this is the skilled vs. unskilled worker debate. Most immigrants are classified as “unskilled” labor. This could not be further from the truth! They are very skilled in their respective fields and we would be hard-pressed to continue business as usual without their particular skill sets. By the time we could have replacements up to speed….it may be already too late to hinder economic repercussions.

So my point in talking about this is that we may have another economic “bubble” in our future to worry about, and that is the immigration bubble! This is a bubble that we would be able to easy deal with over a period of time, but if the economy continues down the current road, people may begin to go home at even greater rates and propel an already fragile state into a steeper spiral.

What do you think ATS? Could our economy be negatively effected by massive amounts of immigrants going home? With more and more people reaching retirement, do we have the human resources to fill the void?

I like your way of thinking and I appreciate you taking the time to post this, as it does bring up a lot of key factors in regards to our American economy.

I only have one issue with this theory.

You make it seems as though it is a crime, to work here make good money here, and that money be considered of higher intrinsic value to another country.

I agree that the thought of immigrants coming and making decent pay that could go to an American citizen or at least national, and then just shipping that money off to a lower valued area seems wrong.

However we fail to even initiate the fact that the money we are paying ourselves with is just putting us further into debt, as Americans, it really doesn't affect Mexico or it's citizen, yet they can go be kings and queens in a land that has little money.

Welcome to global economy.

I agree, but we are still just arguing over money, which is valueless, when the dollar means nothing, are you going to care then?

reply to post by sheepslayer247


Could be the nail in the coffin, but the void left could be filled by the unemployed potentially all though it really depends on the scale of which this starts happening.

In the UK we have alot of east european immigration and it's exactly the same here many of them I've worked with have been sending money back buying land houses etc for when they eventually go back and the talk among most of them is that everyone is starting to bail out and go home.

This should have all been foreseen though but no doubt it hasn't even been thought about and will be the reason for them to lay on more hardship over the coming years.

Apparently, these Mexican immigrants who the huge majority are in here ILLEGALLY, just so hapen to 'trick-and-milk' our system twice. First they drain our system dry receiving more support and assistance then LEGAL tax-paying citizens, then they take our money and spend it in MEXICO instead of using it here to stimulate our economy

We need to get REAL TOUGH on illegal immigration. They do NOTHING GOOD for this country in the long run.

NOTHING GOOD, and its GOT to STOP!!

reply to post by sykonot

You make it seems as though it is a crime, to work here make good money here, and that money be considered of higher intrinsic value to another country.

I hope I didn't say anything to give that impression. I believe people have the right to earn money and do with it as they please. It's rather ingenious what the Mexican people are doing when you take exchange rates into account.

It's not a crime, and I envy the fact that some Mexican people my age (30's) have put themselves into a position to retire in Mexico.

All these years people have been giving them crap for being illegal and all that, yet they may be the ones smiling in the end.

reply to post by HangTheTraitors


I said in the OP that I did not want to get into this sort of discussion. If you would like to discuss the specifics of what was outlined in the OP I would be glad to do so.

Otherwise, I bet you can find an illegal immigration thread to suit your fancy.

Originally posted by HangTheTraitors
Apparently, these Mexican immigrants who the huge majority are in here ILLEGALLY, just so hapen to 'trick-and-milk' our system twice. First they drain our system dry receiving more support and assistance then LEGAL tax-paying citizens, then they take our money and spend it in MEXICO instead of using it here to stimulate our economy

We need to get REAL TOUGH on illegal immigration. They do NOTHING GOOD for this country in the long run.

NOTHING GOOD, and its GOT to STOP!!

Originally posted by sheepslayer247
reply to post by HangTheTraitors

 

I said in the OP that I did not want to get into this sort of discussion. If you would like to discuss the specifics of what was outlined in the OP I would be glad to do so.

Otherwise, I bet you can find an illegal immigration thread to suit your fancy.

Yeah pull the reigns on that guy please! LOL What was that all about! Damn

Let’s say that the American economy continues to falter and larger numbers of immigrants begin to go home. Not only have they already sent billions of dollars (possibly trillions in pesos) into Mexico, but they will take whatever wealth they currently have here and take it with them. That is a large amount of economic activity that will be stripped from our economy.

Hmm this is essentially the same message as HangTheTraitors, is he your alter ego??
So immigrants, aka anyone in the US for that matter, have to stay and spend every last dime away until they die or go bankrupt or the economic capitalist system will collapse? Am I getting this right? I thought the contribution for our hard work through taxes and consumption was enough to sustain the economy. Apparently its not enough! Saving money or to send money elsewhere is akin to economic homicide...

reply to post by Emeraldous

So immigrants, aka anyone in the US for that matter, have to stay and spend every last dime away until they die or go bankrupt or the economic capitalist system will collapse? Am I getting this right?

No. I am talking about the economic effects that may ensue if immigrants pulled out their cash and go home en mass.

I am not saying that they HAVE to keep their money here. I am simply trying to discuss another aspect that could have a profound effect on our economy. They have the right to do what they wish and I am in now trying to posit otherwise.

Since many immigrants have sent large amounts of wealth home, they possibly may have the means to get up and leave when they find it advantageous...which I am ok with. If a few million decided to go home at once, would that have a profound effect on our economy and leave a void not easily filled?

Originally posted by sheepslayer247
reply to post by Emeraldous

 

So immigrants, aka anyone in the US for that matter, have to stay and spend every last dime away until they die or go bankrupt or the economic capitalist system will collapse? Am I getting this right?

No. I am talking about the economic effects that may ensue if immigrants pulled out their cash and go home en mass.

I am not saying that they HAVE to keep their money here. I am simply trying to discuss another aspect that could have a profound effect on our economy. They have the right to do what they wish and I am in now trying to posit otherwise.

Since many immigrants have sent large amounts of wealth home, they possibly may have the means to get up and leave when they find it advantageous...which I am ok with. If a few million decided to go home at once, would that have a profound effect on our economy and leave a void not easily filled?

You are worrying for nothing. Jobs will quickly and easily be taken by others. We have millions of unemployed people all across the USA. As for having a profound effect on our economy, they already have but in a negative way. It has cost us billions in education, cheap housing, food stamps, medical and whatever for many. I don't understand why you are so worried.

Originally posted by sheepslayer247
reply to post by HangTheTraitors

 

I said in the OP that I did not want to get into this sort of discussion. If you would like to discuss the specifics of what was outlined in the OP I would be glad to do so.

Otherwise, I bet you can find an illegal immigration thread to suit your fancy.

I see your point, but most Americans will not. They cannot! They are so ingrained within the American dollar culture that they see nothing else but dollar signs, bigger cars, houses, digital TVs etc.

Strangely, I was discussing with my lady friend this afternoon how in my travels in Mexico I learned the way genuine Mexicans view life. Money is not necessarily their goal, they enjoy themselves with far less goods and services than the typical American. One of the most surprising thing about Mexico is that this relaxed way of living IS the way of Mexico. It always was. They don't take a day off to go to the beach, they take a week, whether that is staying at a decent hotel or camping.

It is the present generation of the old "manana" image of the "lazy" Mexican dozing under a saguaro catus mixed with the ability to climb out of that poverty hole but not so far as to forget to enjoy themselves. Many Americans are starting to see this "back to the hills" concept as exactly what they need to do to the escape the American rat race. We are relearning that alternate lifestyle. Many Mexicans never lost it. They simply moved away from it for awhile to earn their "freedom." It is simply easier and more productive for them to return to it with less of a "grubstake" than for them to attempt to slug it our in the US. The average American hasn't it so easy to return to the hills where the long arm of all sorts of government still reaches.

That said, there are many, many bad and undesirable things about Mexico, but for many immigrants, illegal and legal and even ex-pat American's, Mexico, Costa Rica or some other southern climes are about the closest thing to heaven as you can get.

America has all the potential labor it needs to fill those jobs left behine. Contrary to what you claim they are NOT that skilled to any degree. The problem is that resident potential labor force thinks it is entitled, and most of it can make more money staying at home on welfare ADC (Aid to Dependent Children) rather than working and paying for child care. --And that situation is not their fault but of government (not necessarily politics).

I live in central america and believe me for every 30 year old that is thinking of going home there are probably five 18 year olds dreaming of going to the US.

Many legal immigrants have no desire to leave the US. I have also met more than a few that thought their saving would last them the rest of their lives but after a couple of years they realize that they miscalculated or they realize that they have been spoiled by the standard of living and end up going back to the US.

And last, but not least, the ones who just can't manage money and have been working on their plan for 20 years but haven't saved a dime.

reply to post by sheepslayer247


An immigration bubble would be hard on the geriatrics, but to young Americans, IT WOULD BE A GODSEND!

We would have the ability to find affordable housing easier, lower unemployment and maybe even be able to start families. If the geriatrics decide to "fix" this bubble by a new wave of mass immigration, then the only solution is mandatory euthanasia.

I am sorry but I am about fed up of the geriatric scumbags actively cannibalizing their own childrens future so you fat slobs can continue to live beyond your means. Baby Boomers are the worst generation of Americans ever. Heck worst generation of humans ever.

Could our economy be negatively effected by massive amounts of immigrants going home?

It would be for a while, but eventually the businesses would recruit and advertise for different groups to replace them (old people, students) and we would benefit with less competition for resources, and be able to use our tax money for us instead of bailing out immigrants.

Just a quick reference for you, the uk was flooded by polish migrant workers a few year back, now they all seem to have gone home after earning some cash (and the polish economy tripling in that time) In way, i have nothing but respect for the polish workers that came here - They worked like dogs for low wages. Though in other ways i didn't respect them because they made my father redundant in the work force. Its a two way street and immigration may benefit business but it seriously damages mr average.

But, to spin your question on its head, If all those mexicans decided to up and return home, how would that effect the MEXICAN economy in the long run? You seem to forget that as country's economy grows, they go through stages.

3rd world - little to no economy, people farm for food etc.
2nd world - Manufacturing base. Secondary industry of making good and exporting.
1st world - Tertiary industry - Little to no manufacturing base, economy is based around buying of goods/service.

So, if they all went home tomorrow, would the price of food remain the same over 10 years? Would there economic process go forwards or backwards? By what you've said, they don't tax there citizens very much and that would lead me to believe there is very little investment in terms of infrastructure.
Would a country supposedly full of the "wealthy" really be rich?

reply to post by sheepslayer247


First of all that was a well thought out and written piece of information props to that.

I don't like lumping all the people in the same boat either. I'm sure there's alot of good people on both sides of the immigration problem affected by this, and several other people stole my thunder by voicing what I was thinking as I read your post.

Things have always been less expensive in Mexico they use to advertise for years retire cheap in Mexico. However Mexican laws are stricter for people doing so:

For Instance: They want us to be able to provide financially for ourselves should we go down to be citizens:
If we marry it must be a proven love match and we still don't get the right to vote in their elections.
And we should at least be knowledageable enough in conversational Spanish there.

Is that too much reason for us to require similar laws. Aside from the providing financially thing for them. There should be happy alternative to that for them and us.

reply to post by 1loserel2

Is that too much reason for us to require similar laws.

I could agree with those stipulations, except for the "love" thing. Being able to provide for yourself and communicate are all criteria America would love to be able to enforce onto immigrants into the US.

But I still have to wonder if a mas "exodus" of immigrants at one time would be detrimental to our economy in any way.

Originally posted by sheepslayer247
But I still have to wonder if a mas "exodus" of immigrants at one time would be detrimental to our economy in any way.

It would in the short term, but I don't see it happening. Even though making enough to build and maybe start a business back home is a popular plan, not everyone is going to be at a point where they can do it, at the same time.