West Coast USA: Pay Attention, Cascadia May Be Ready to Rupture

Well guess what. Figures I'd be napping when after all this, the 5.6 goes down. Turns out my key station had come back up. I made my not-so-sure A2 based on stations all the way up in Washington, cause I didn't have the key station. And then went to sleep.

Well, as you may have guessed, I have analyzed data now from that station, and I would have indeed issued an A2 if I had that data at the time I made that post. It fits my hypothetical criteria. And believe it or not, if I had that data, I would have probably SAID to watch out further south than Washington.

Things definitely showed at my key station. So I may indeed have something on earthquake prediction. Something repeatable.

But more importantly, you people better pay attention to where that quake and the others in northern Cal are happening. Remember the purple path?



That 5.6 hit in the path, and near the end of the zone. Not good at all. Look at the quake in relation to the zone line. That, in addition to the quakes I pointed out here:



May be indicators that the zone is becoming unglued. They said it would start at one end. Well, we've got bigger quakes recently at BOTH ends. I don't know what else to say about it.

In a general sense, the haters can keep hating. The scientists, and pseudo scientists can keep denying me a fair shot with a reasonable set of tools, and laugh at me, mock me and dismiss me.

But I am one persistent son of a bitch. You will not keep me down.

ETA: And oh, things at the moment are not looking any better whatsoever. As in, it does not appear that quake satisfied the fault. Be warned.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thank you immensely for the heads up!! I was in Seattle in the heart of the destruction during the 6.8 and it was NOT fun. Probably on the top 3 most scary moments of my life honestly.

My bugout bag is always ready, but I have many friends who aren't prepared for any kind of natural disaster, especially my friends in LA

Thank you again for taking on this mission to keep others aware, much respect!

reply to post by TrueAmerican


B.O.B is by the door. Emergency cache full, water, cat food and crunchies on hand, batteries candles flashlights ready. Wrench at hand to turn off the gas.

Yeap

My thanks to you,T.A.! Because of this thread,I took some time to make sure our Bug Out Bags were in order!
(And because I did that,my husband is impressed by my "intuition" )

Seriously,I love these threads here on ATS and all the valuable input from everyone!!!!
(Nice to see some others here in this vicinity also!)

Take care,all.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican I w
would have probably SAID to watch out further south than Washington.

I don't know TA. I don't think I'd count that end of the prediction out just yet. Heres todays tremor map. Nothing down south, but up north got a sizeable cluster that possibly released the same amount of energy.



And I know exactly what you mean. Soon as I heard it was 20 miles deep 15 miles inland I thought a tear was starting. Instead of tremors from little chunks that were already close to melting and moving into the mantle, this was more west and in the transition zone. But just barely. Transition zone earthquakes are why I started the deep tremor thread. Staying on top of them worldwide looking for patterns in relation to the ETS zones and the locked zones.

Mike, in answer to your question, all I can say is I feel like Im living above a herd of dragons tied up but pulling hard on their ropes. Its a strange feeling.

ON EDIT: and the ropes beginning to fray.

Well the ocean temperature right now is about 45 degrees F (7.2 C) on the northern west coast, give or take a few. And it's colder the farther north you go. I don't suppose I have to point out what a nasty situation that would be if a tsunami decided to show up any time soon. Not only would people drown, but those trying to survive in the water would probably get hypothermia very quickly.

I don't understand why the USGS doesn't issue some kind of advisory or something. Why does it take some amateur like me to point out these patterns? Why are they so afraid to go out on a limb and be wrong?

As far as I'm concerned, the whole west coast USA is on red alert. And Vancouver, you are in no better position either.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


TA - because of mass panic that might follow - and then if nothing happens - when they are more sure of something, no one pays attention :-) - That is why They inlisted you lol - not official, but folks pay heed and they have a clean chin - Nice call BTW IMHO - been watching - seems very unsettled. Don't get to post much anymore but am forever watching. Keep up the good work!!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Well the ocean temperature right now is about 45 degrees F (7.2 C) on the northern west coast, give or take a few. And it's colder the farther north you go. I don't suppose I have to point out what a nasty situation that would be if a tsunami decided to show up any time soon. Not only would people drown, but those trying to survive in the water would probably get hypothermia very quickly.

I don't understand why the USGS doesn't issue some kind of advisory or something. Why does it take some amateur like me to point out these patterns? Why are they so afraid to go out on a limb and be wrong?

As far as I'm concerned, the whole west coast USA is on red alert. And Vancouver, you are in no better position either.

edit on Mon Feb 13th 2012 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

TA I will be the first to tell you I no nothing about earthquakes! but for us clueless people on here what warning signs should we look for?

reply to post by Anmarie96


Enlisted me?

:shk:

Far from it, my dear.

PuterMan has me pegged for being some kind of "company man" now, and nothing could be further from the truth!

So I've talked to a few up at USGS and some other sub networks. Big whoop. One guy helped me with this tool set. And that's it.

But before we get too far off track:

This 5.6 MUST be considered part of the short time period I have been pointing out all along. When looked at in that context, it has a whole new meaning. And USGS, you better get on the ball please. Issue an advisory. How many more quakes are going to have to happen directly on the upper lip of subduction, in such a short time, for anyone to give a crap up there?

And SkipperJohn, read the thread. The warning signs are there. Vital Signs.

Originally posted by skitzspiricy

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by zworld

 

Zworld, I originally was thinking you meant Trinidad as in Trinidad and Tobago. Took me a while to figure out you meant California. Then it made a great deal of sense.

I was going to say the exact same thing.

Was thinking, how did they feel it all the way over there?....Ahhhh There's a Trinidad CA.

edit on 13-2-2012 by skitzspiricy because: (no reason given)

reply to post by zworld


Ahhhh...you beat me to this. I am really glad so many others are now looking at all of this. I am dealing with things at home right now, so have not had time to keep up on things. I even wonder if it may be related....but that is for another thread.

Remember how I was saying I had noticed patterns some time ago? Yin-yang with the deep tremors. Whenever I see a big cluster on one end, expect an answer on the other. Well, here is an excellent case-in-point. Over 230 deep tremors build in the Sound on the Northern end....and then BAM, a 5.6 lets lose on the South.

If those tremors continue, I would be looking for more action. I see it like a big 2x4 strung out along the coast that has a small nail through the middle to hold it in place. Slowly pull one end nice and steady with even force and eventually the other end is going to let lose. Make sense?

If you want to try and get a better idea of what is going on real-time with the energy being released, try looking at these spectographs.

Actually, by the looks of THIS one, I would say they haven't stopped....and I expect to see more action down South very soon. Perhaps off-shore this time, or even off-shore Southern oregon.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican


Well, as you may have guessed, I have analyzed data now from that station, and I would have indeed issued an A2 if I had that data at the time I made that post. It fits my hypothetical criteria. And believe it or not, if I had that data, I would have probably SAID to watch out further south than Washington.

Things definitely showed at my key station. So I may indeed have something on earthquake prediction. Something repeatable.

But more importantly, you people better pay attention to where that quake and the others in northern Cal are happening. Remember the purple path?

That 5.6 hit [color=009999]in the path, and near the end of the zone. Not good at all. Look at the quake in relation to the zone line.

. . .

May be indicators that the zone is becoming unglued. They said it would start at one end. Well, we've got bigger quakes recently at BOTH ends. I don't know what else to say about it.

In a general sense, the haters can keep hating. The scientists, and pseudo scientists can keep denying me a fair shot with a reasonable set of tools, and laugh at me, mock me and dismiss me.

But I am one persistent son of a bitch. You will not keep me down.

[align=center][color=009999]YEA!!!YEA!!!YEA[/align]

Soooooooooooooo, what do YOU think about the line of moderate quakes that starts abot Australia at the

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 5.1 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

And goes now down toward Tonga to

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 5.2 - TONGA

Do YOU think that there is 0.000000000000000000000% connection between them?

I don't know if the

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 5.0 - SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS

would be part of that sequence, or not.

Sure is an interesting line--TO ME.

.
.

Originally posted by westcoast
I expect to see more action down South very soon. Perhaps off-shore this time, or even off-shore Southern oregon.

Im going with 20 miles off Cape Mendocino near the southwest corner of the Gorda plate. Im thinking this was a transition zone EQ leading to locked zone event, like what occurred recently off Vancouver Island, only a southern version. And a bit bigger. 48 hours.

That's interesting, the cluster tremors one end and a shake the other. Im keeping my eyes open for that pattern.

A little Mag 3.0 near the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ)
USGS event page

ETA: You're good, zworld. 25 miles west of Petrolia.


Second Edit: I just wanted to give a direct link to the Aftershock Warning released by the Northern California Seismic Network. This probability report was originally referenced in an article linked by ATS member ignant, in a post found here.
Just wanted to make sure people interested in Cascadia saw this.


On last edit: Here is a thumbnail showing continued unrest near the southern end of the CSZ (as of 5 minutes ago). FYI, the motion shown is very, very small--nanometers

Originally posted by Olivine
A little Mag 3.0 near the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ)
USGS event page

ETA: You're good, zworld.

25 miles west of Petrolia.

Thanks Olivine.

But smaller than the transition zone EQ. So not the exact prediction. I think there will be another further out on the Gorda plate, same latitude. But bigger than the 5.6, or same size. A Shallow depth. 48 hours.

This time if the above occurs, it will be where I believe the initial rupture point will occur for the 'big one', which I think will be out a ways past the locked point on the outer edge of the plate. The reason that point interests me is because of the clockwise rotational movement of the Gorda Plate. Though the greatest stress is felt at the MTJ, that back edge is the least secured.

ON EDIT: This is what UC Berkeley says about the EQ yesterday.
seismo.berkeley.edu...

Shakemap from the 1:07 PM (PST) February 13 Mw 5.6 event near Eureka, CA. The maximum instrumental intensity for this earthquake is VI. The moment tensor solution, determined at Berkeley, indicates normal faulting, which could be due to bending in the subducted plate.

"Bending in the subducted plate. Is that like folding a t-shirt......just kidding. Never heard that term before, the bending of a plate. Not sure what it means. has anyone experience with this bending of the plate thing?

Wow guys...if I am reading these graphs right, it looks like there is a whole lot of tremors going today..pretty much non-stop. Looks to be near the sound again.

spectrograms

Okay, so I see THIS as the possible REAL Southern end of the Cascadian subduction zone. Looking at that theory, these current quakes coincide with the Northern Cal and others. Granted, this is an active area, so it could simply be a coincidence...but I dunno. Keep an eye on this area too.

Originally posted by westcoast
Okay, so I see THIS as the possible REAL Southern end of the Cascadian subduction zone. Looking at that theory, these current quakes coincide with the Northern Cal and others. Granted, this is an active area, so it could simply be a coincidence...but I dunno. Keep an eye on this area too.

I think these quakes are connected no matter what via transmission of P and S waves, but the connection between the southern section of the soon to be extinct Farallon plate (westcoasts of Mexico and Costa Rica) and the northern section (CSZ) Im guessing is broken/melted into the lower mantle by now, so a physical connection wouldnt be happening. Of course, I dont know that for sure, but pretty sure.

And talking about the CSZ, below is an interpretation I did when trying to understand the forces at work in the CSZ. This is a possible scenario for the big one. The rupture begins far out to sea at the southwestern most point of the plate and tears in a curve to the northeast, separating forever the Gorda and Juan De Fuca plates. This energy causes the JDF to rupture at is meeting point with Gorda, and tear all the way to central Vancouver Island.

The arrows show direction of movement. The arrows in the JDF rupture zone also indicate the width of the tear. The Gorda I think is not only going to completely decouple from everyone else, but shatter as well, and it is unclear what the width would be.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
The Japan 9.1 is not only a warning, but a hard lesson learned. Unknown, deeper, dormant fault extensions could indeed rear their ugly head, and add another order of magnitude to what is currently thought possible.

Oh, you mean like THIS 5.6, TA, right on an unknown fault extension?


earthquake.usgs.gov...

Yeah, kinda like that, TA, but it's ok, pay that fool no mind.

The mere fact that 5.6 occurred, at this very time, in the context of the other Cascadia activity, on an unknown fault extension- should be reason enough for concern.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Just thought I'd throw this one in here too: My sister, who IS NOT a psychic, never has dreams about apocalyptic BS, and who does not frequent any sites or media that might give her a nightmare, told me that she had a dream about a big earthquake in the Pacific Northwest. She said that it was throwing the vehicle around that my niece was driving so that they could get to our parents house. She said that it really spooked her because she could vividly see the telephone poles and wires being thrown all around . . . This is not a prediction of any sort . . . I just thought it was interesting coming from her . . . I, nor she, ever expected that to come out of her mind and mouth.

I have always kept an eye on the USGS site and ATS of course and really had no major stress about it, but this activity really seems a bit more unusual than in the past, although; I am no expert.