MSNBC: Maybe ET is just avoiding us.

This is a interesting article.
www.msnbc.msn.com...
Basically some believe that mathematically speaking if alien were real they would have found us by now.

Hair, who presented his research at the Mathematical Association of America in Boston earlier this month, based his approximation of what he considered to be extremely conservative estimates for how long it would take a society to muster up the resources and technological know-how to leave its home world and travel to another star.

Even at the relatively sedate pace of 1 percent of light-speed, the aliens would arrive at their nearest neighbor star in about 500 years. (Light travels at about 186,000 miles per second.)

Figure another 500 years to build new ships, set out again, and so on and so on, and the calculations show that civilizations starting out from the oldest stars in our galaxy would have had epochs of time to reach us by now. So where are they?

"They've either passed us by, or they stay around their home star systems and contemplate their navels," Hair said.

There could be several reasons why we’re not listed in intergalactic Yelp. Perhaps most important is that we don't have anything aliens need.

I don't want to copy and paste the whole article I have included the link.

In my opinion I don't think we are alone, in the universe. I'm think that aliens may send probes around our planet just like we send our satellites around other planets.

I always had a question on what would would draw aliens to this planet specifically. Out of the Trillions of Planets
Billions of Galaxies they just happen to choose earth. I'm not a believer in the whole new age cult like stuff "They Made Us stuff."

Anyway it's a interesting read.

Edit: Forgot to include the link

Perhaps they have discovered another, closer civilization, in the completely opposite direction. However, I believe wholeheartedly they found us thousands of years ago. I believe it's only a matter of time before they reveal themselves to us.

I think this is pretty much correct.

At the moment, we either have nothing they need, or they don't need to ask us for it so they don't, and keep their heads down .

About the Alien probe in orbit idea- The Rendlesham forest UFO incident, involved some markings on the craft being copied in a note book, as far as I remember, they got a mathematician to analyse the symbols, and he believed it described a probe, placed in an orbit around earth .

They are already here my friend, read Richard Dolan's - UFO's and the national security state, proves it in my opinion.

If I were an ET, I don't know that I would come to this planet either. Nothing but a bunch of nut jobs fighting over things that don't truely belong to them, they belong to us all. Maybe they are sitting in space eating popcorn, or whatever they eat, sitting back to watch the show. Or maybe they will wait until we have exhausted all options and are ready for peace, before they come. Very exciting thoughts and ideas.

Originally posted by DivineFem
If I were an ET, I don't know that I would come to this planet either. Nothing but a bunch of nut jobs fighting over things that don't truely belong to them, they belong to us all. Maybe they are sitting in space eating popcorn, or whatever they eat, sitting back to watch the show. Or maybe they will wait until we have exhausted all options and are ready for peace, before they come. Very exciting thoughts and ideas.

I think they're waiting for us to go nuclear. Makes perfect sense, they've done it during WW2. Since now we have many more nukes than many decades ago, there should be much more of them for a deactivation show. IMO

reply to post by DivineFem


Earth is like a reality show to aliens, ha. If I was from an advanced civilization, I really dont think I would be interested in the virus that is called humanity either.

For anyone who hasn't read up an awful lot about it I seriously suggest you check out the 'Ancient Astronaut Theory' even if only more closely. Even though it is a theory it has answered a lot of science and archeology's great questions for me, especially in regards to the origins of mankind and its intelligence.

But hey, thats just me.

If you wanna argue over videos and images that could easily be faked then go ahead. If you wanna look at real evidence then the best place to start is the AAT in my opinion.

-Tech

I agree with Stan "The Man" Friedman, in that the aliens are waiting for us to get our s#!t together before they say hello. Let me preface this by saying the NWO is scary, but if there are many other planets out there, with life thousands of years more advanced than us, I have to believe there is some kind of galactic UN. So, we humans, who have yet to realize that color, religion and some imaginary lines on a map are really holding ourselves back in that regard. Once we as a planet come together and realize that things we do in western hemisphere affects things in the eastern hemisphere, and vice versa, and put aside our petty differences to work together as one species I think we will see ET make itself known to all. Right now, governments who MAY have found wreckage of a crashed "flying disk," or MAY have had some kind of contact with ETs, are keeping all this secret so they can "win the war" of ideas and nations and have their systems be the predominate ruling systems of the planet, but this is very counterproductive IMO.

Originally posted by sicksonezer0
reply to post by DivineFem

 

Earth is like a reality show to aliens, ha. If I was from an advanced civilization, I really dont think I would be interested in the virus that is called humanity either.

reply to post by IamAbeliever

I believe it's only a matter of time before they reveal themselves to us.

yep - another 1000 years or something, i (hope) but dont think they will show up in the next 500years because we know nothing, act stupid and there is really no point to get in contact besides we would have something "special" and in this case (if theyd know that) theyd allready showed up...on the otherhand they could find out about our "special" thing in the next two minutes and show up...

I agree with Tech. It may be controversial, but so have a lot of theories in the past that turned out to be true (Round Earth Theory).

The idea that it was in fact aliens that created us in their image, rather than a magical man in the sky who created a woman from the rib of the man, seems to me to be the more logical theory.

As hokey as it sounds, I think Roddenberry got it right in his musings.

They are (or should) leave us be and allow us to develop for the most part on our own, unhindered or influenced by them to a certain technological point without direct knowledge of them. It makes sense (assuming benevolence) that they wouldn't want to parent us, but rather have us go through the trials and errors to gain wisdom before hitting the stars.

Alternatively, maybe earth is unique in regards to the only planet ever to support such life..but that sounds highly unlikely to me. That would actually make me consider the prospect of a deity (infinite possibilities and none favor life except for this...then sure...a deity influence, but wow, what a pointless creation for the vast universe and only 1 planet in play.)

reply to post by dymiox


I couldn't agree more. I believe that when we stand on the brink of an all-out nuclear exchange we will have mass sightings worldwide. And with the coming showdown with Iran we shouldn't have to wait much longer.

Originally posted by Hessdalen
i (hope) but dont think they will show up in the next 500years because we know nothing, act stupid and there is really no point to get in contact

We know plenty of stuff. Who knows what we have that they lack, in regards to knowledge, resources, or other.
You may find that an alien race may find our cooking methods to be amazing and universally spectacular..or our ability to weave stories.

Point is, its hard to say what an alien race would find valueable...they might dismiss our latest hot fusion reactors, but marvel at our spork invention..

But, lets say its info they did find worthy...they wouldn't have to come down and take it...a simple scan of the documents is all that is needed (can be done from the moon frankly, grabbing it off the net) and voila...they can make it themselves.

I wouldn't think aliens are waiting for us to learn something cool before introductions..I think it is dictated by certain technological milestones...be it lightspeed drives, wormholes, or planet buster weapons, etc..things like that which effect the space outside of our planet.

Originally posted by IamAbeliever
reply to post by dymiox

 

I couldn't agree more. I believe that when we stand on the brink of an all-out nuclear exchange we will have mass sightings worldwide. And with the coming showdown with Iran we shouldn't have to wait much longer.

More depressing...imagine if and when we don't. everyone's finger on the button, and no UFOs at all..nothing to stop us or make us reconsider.

reply to post by Blahable


This fellow, Hair, supposedly did some "research" to support his theory?--.

I guess he never, never ever heard of or then had cause to consider the possibility that the world-widely known phenomena common called UFOs in about every language is evidence oforexactly what he suggests would happen?

Sometimes, the people of Science make me afraid. As the world turns, so Science in general is coming around to seeing the sunlight after gradually exiting the dark ages.. And as it comes by degrees to them, they will apply their filters before sending it along to us that already know what they must prove to themselves.

reply to post by Aliensun


Please keep in mind, a UFO is not an ET (well, it may be, but then its not a UFO, its an ET spaceship or some such...aka, then we know what it is).

UFOs are a dime a dozen..most being simply misunderstandings (chinese lanterns, venus, etc etc etc)..so since there is no solid proof of anything alien about them, they must be ignored from the studies. (else, why not also suggest ghosts are ETs?)

If scientific hypothesis's included every claim under the sun without proof, we would accomplish nothing (some guy said he made a perpetual motion machine with magnets and popsicle sticks).

They maybe so far advanced that they just see us as just a slightly more evolved ape. Sure we have some somewhat creative inventions and primitive culture values... but would any of this have value to a race that could be a million or many more years beyond us?

Are we just annoying little ants crawling on the surface? Best just to avoid entirely?

Even if the Universe is teeming with life, there's still a damn good chance most of it won't find each other.

For starters, there has to be something alerting them we're here. For us, that's a bit easier, as we did after all, literally broadcast our presence, but even now, our tech is such that we are doing more with signals that never leave the Earth. If others out there followed a similar progression, that means a very tiny window for those signals to cross, and we'd have to have been at a certain level of tech to even see those signals. If the signals came 200 years ago, and went, well, we missed it. If they come 100 years from now, we may not even be looking for such a "primitive" signal, etc.

I don't think this guy's calculations consider just how BIG space is. Even at light speed, from most stars (and not all stars are going to have Earthlike planets around them, or other life sustaining kinds), it would still take many lifetimes to get here. Without some kind of FTL technology, alien visitation is a fantasy.

However, since there is evidence we're being visited, then maybe there is an FTL loophole after all. There are simply way too many unknown variables, for this guy's math to even be remotely considered as an accurate indicator of this.

reply to post by Soapusmaximus


Love your avatar pic! Made me snarf coffee through my nose as I was taking a sip when I saw it! Ha!

On topic:

I'm afraid Hair is having to make a lot of assumptions here. That figure of only 500 years to the next star at only 1 percent of the speed of light (and let's face it folks: how many would willingly volunteer to board a ship, knowing that you will die, your children will die, etc, etc, until many generations down the road make it? That of course is assuming an alien's life span is under 100 years, and no sort of "suspended animation"), that star would have to be as close to their home planet as Alpha Centauri is to Earth.
That's a big assumption. While that situation will be due to the amount of stars in our galaxy, and not exactly evenly spaced, what is to say that these aliens didn't evolve on a planet who's nearest star is 30 light years away? Much longer trip.
And would you make that trip if there was no known planets around it? Especially habitable ones?
What if there are plenty of stars close to their home world, but the nearest one with a habitable planet is 300 light years away? At only 1 percent of light speed (which relativistic effects are non-existent BTW, you have have to go a lot faster to get that).

UFO's aside, I think that Hair there fails to consider a lot of things, especially if you look at Drake's equation:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

en.wikipedia.org...

You could keep expanding upon that equation, after the fraction of "did the civilization live long enough to try and communicate", by adding even more fractions (thus lowering the number even more), things like:

Have they developed space travel?
Have they developed interplanetary travel?
Have they developed interstellar travel?
Have they survived running into a more advanced race than THEM?

I like the "They're going in the other direction." idea in this thread. For all we know, they're all on the opposite side of our galaxy, zipping about and having fun, not having even reached this far.

Or their already here. They landed, started to give us a big "Hello" and then got whipped out by cable TV and Burger King!! hehehehe.