U.S Cattle Herds Drop to lowest since 1958 - More signs of food problems?

Hey, I saw this earlier today and thought it was something worth taking a look at. Im no expert, and Im not trying to fearmonger, but it might be time to buy some extra food. Or at least think about it.

It seems to me the signs are there that food prices are going to rise quite a bit again this year.

A record drought in Texas last year and rising feed costs prompted ranchers to cull herds, even as beef exports surged from the U.S., the world’s largest producer. Cattle futures are up 15 percent since the end of June, reaching a record seven times this month, and the Livestock Marketing Information Center says retail-beef prices that reached an all-time high on an annual basis in 2011 will keep rising through next year.

bloomberg

And also this, the story is a week or two old, but I dont think its irrelevant.

The statewide snowpack's water content was found to be 19 percent of the Jan. 3 average and only 7 percent of the average April 1 average. The snowpack is usually at its peak early in April before melting in the spring.

Mountain snow that melts in the spring and summer accounts for about 1/3 of the water for California's households, farms and industries reported the California DWR.

scientific american

Like I said, not trying to scare anyone... but it does seem like its getting more and more obvious that our food situation is far from ideal. I dont think were going to see famine just yet, but be sure of a higher grocery bill this year.


I got both these stories from here Stan Deyo.

Actually, this was on the news here in west Texas a few months ago. There has been so little rain that it was too expensive to feed large herds, so the ranchers had to sell of quite a few of their cattle, rather than have them starve to death.

This means that beef prices will go up even higher than they are now. Currently beef is expensive, but you can find sales if you shop around because of the temporary glut. I wouldn't get frightened about food shortages, but if you like beef, better stock up on it while it's on sale now, because later on, even ground beef will become ridiculous.

For those of you who like fast food, expect 100% beef burgers to be quite a bit pricier.

reply to post by osirys


All humor aside...
It's actually worse than what they are reporting.

I know several ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma that have already sold off most of their herds because of the drought.

The price of beef will skyrocket in the next 6 months.

Please prepare ATS!

I think it is important to understand supply and demand in statistics like this!

Supply does not equate to demand...let me post a link!

Supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics and it is the backbone of a market economy. Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers. The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing to buy at a certain price; the relationship between price and quantity demanded is known as the demand relationship. Supply represents how much the market can offer. The quantity supplied refers to the amount of a certain good producers are willing to supply when receiving a certain price. The correlation between price and how much of a good or service is supplied to the market is known as the supply relationship. Price, therefore, is a reflection of supply and demand.

www.investopedia.com...

I do not think this equates to food shortages or "problems"!

Hince correlation does not mean causation...statistics get weird sometimes!

Originally posted by jerryznv
I think it is important to understand supply and demand in statistics like this!

Supply does not equate to demand...let me post a link!

Supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics and it is the backbone of a market economy. Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers. The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing to buy at a certain price; the relationship between price and quantity demanded is known as the demand relationship. Supply represents how much the market can offer. The quantity supplied refers to the amount of a certain good producers are willing to supply when receiving a certain price. The correlation between price and how much of a good or service is supplied to the market is known as the supply relationship. Price, therefore, is a reflection of supply and demand.

www.investopedia.com...

I do not think this equates to food shortages or "problems"!

Hince correlation does not mean causation...statistics get weird sometimes!

edit on 27-1-2012 by jerryznv because: (no reason given)

Uhhh.... I'm thinking that you may have just disproved your own argument.

Here in Texas .... the relentless drought has caused many ranchers to sell their cattle off, as they could not afford to feed them.

What do you think will happen in the next year, or even 6 months, when all that beef was sold off in 2011 won't be available in 2012?
Do you think prices will go down?

Maybe it has to do with the fact there are 7 billion people on Earth!

reply to post by tvtexan

Uhhh.... I'm thinking that you may have just disproved your own argument.

Maybe...I don't think that is what I set out to do...but I have been wrong before.

My wife is an Animal Science major...and she thinks that there may be some validity to that region statistically...but globally...this is a small indicator!

For example...we are currently in Wyoming and the beef market here is up almost 20% from 2011...is that figured in with this new statistic?

Beef here is up...in that region down...by how much is for the statistical researchers!

ETA: Also mentionable...Texas (as great of a state that it is) does little to influence the beef production market globally...and although it does account for a portion of beef produced in the U.S...there is quite a influence from the Australian market that shadows the beef production in the U.S.!

There was a major cattle sell off last summer because of the drought in the south. You are about to see in the next few weeks, beef prices SKYROCKET. Fill your freezers now. I just wonder how Golden Corral is going to deal with it.

Sadly, the stars are aligning to ensure that I have to become a vegetarian. I've been fighting it for six months or so, but more and more things keep happening. It's a sad day when a hillbilly eats like a rabbit.

Obviously there is concern for the beef market in the states...seems that (according to this snippet) that it is good news for the Australian market...so prices up here in the U.S. possibly...I would think that as the price of bacon goes up to $7.00 lb. that we have more of a increase in food overall!

Through to quarter one 2012, Rabobank expects an increase in global beef competitor meat supplies. This will take place amidst a backdrop of uncertain economic growth. However, cattle prices are likely to reach record highs later next year as markets transition from a short-term supply bulge - primarily in the US where herds are diminishing due to drought - to materially lower supplies.

www.foodprocessing.com.au...

reply to post by osirys


Last I checked meat wasn't really a requirement to live and only serves to contribute to the cost of American healthcare. I'm pretty sure that the loss of beef wouldn't cause anybody to starve.

I mean, as it is, it only survives because of the incredibly high subsidies our taxes provide for the beef industry. It's not a cost effective nor viable industry nor is it remotely efficient water-wise.

In case your interested in projections...there is a decent bit of information about the business the U.S. does outside of our own market here...

U.S. farmers also may gain from increased shipments to South Korea, which reopened its market in 2008 to beef from cattle as old as 30 months. The two nations signed a free trade pact last year that will reduce import tariffs of as much as 40 percent over the next 15 years

journalstar.com...

reply to post by Cuervo


Not really a requirement, but a very good source of protein. Ive done hard labor jobs before, and dont think it wouldve happened without meat in my diet.

Good point nonetheless, like I said, it doesnt mean famine.

Another strange thing Ive noticed. Whenever a story breaks about how a certain food is in short supply, or the prices are going up... within the same week theres a story about how that food is bad for you.

Recently I read that Orange Juice was skyrocketing in price, then less then a week later there were stories about how the government was testing for contamination.

Misdirection perhaps? I might be speculating to much, not sure. Possibly unrelated, but odd nonetheless.

reply to post by jerryznv


Thanks for the post about supply and demand, its good to hear both sides of the argument.

Originally posted by osirys
reply to post by jerryznv

 

Thanks for the post about supply and demand, its good to hear both sides of the argument.

Absolutely...not a popular thing on a conspiracy site...but in order to evaluate this new "conspiracy"...we need all sides...whether they are popular or not!

Facts and opinions are something that needs some skepticism...I am not saying that this is not correct...but needs some looking into!