Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - Game Theory Predictions

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses math - game theory - to predict the future.
I'm just presenting this for those who may be interested. I have no opinion on this.

I'm really only finding his prediction about Iran for the recent future. I can't find anything about 2012 or anything else. So if anyone does find other predictions he's made ... feel free to add to this thread. He claims a 90% accuracy rate. But I'm not sure about that since we haven't seen all his work and only the 'hits' have been released.

Word Press - de Mesquita Predicting the Future with 90% accuracy

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory, and is also the director of New York University’s Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy. He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using an unpublished and proprietary computer model based on game theory and rational choice theory.

19 Minute Video on how Bruce Bueno de Mesquita does his predictions
This is kinda dull to start with (honestly) but it explains how he makes his predictions which he claims are 90% accurate. The last 7 minutes or so he goes into his predictions for Iran. Shows charts and game theory info ... He comes up with that if the world let Iran alone, there would be LESS of a chance of Iran getting a 'bomb'. (I disagree). He has Iran with weapons grade fuel - not a bomb - by 2011. He has Irans president as in office but a 'non player' in Iran by end of 2011.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita the 'new nostradamus'

Forecasted the second Intifada and the death of the Mideast peace procedure, two several years earlier than it occurred.

Defied Russia specialists by predicting who would succeed Brezhnev The model identified Andropov, who nobody at the time even considered a possibility, he says.

Predicted that Daniel Ortega and the Sandanistas would be voted out of office in Nicaragua, two decades prior to it occurred.

Four months just before Tiananmen Square, said China’s hardliners would crack down harshly on dissidents.

Predicted France’s hair’s-breadth passage of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty.

Predicted the precise implementation of the 1998 Beneficial Friday Agreement between Britain and the IRA.

Predicted China’s reclaiming of Hong Kong and the precise manner the handover would take place, 12 a long time earlier than it occurred.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - wikipedia

Predictions on Iran and 'the bomb'
New York Times - can game theory predict when Iran will get the bomb?

It means that Iran won’t make a nuclear bomb. By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent months — the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions, Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge — are masking a tectonic shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.

I'm thinking this is a miss ...
May 2011 predicton

Some other Middle East countries won’t see riots in the streets or experience governments under siege, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has a track record of accurate predictions. And Iran is unlikely to go nuclear, he tells Newsmax.TV.”

On the daily show in 2009

Very Interesting Indeed. Last night a documentary on History HD in the Netherlands was about the similarities between Bruce and Nostradamus. He told almost the exact thing as he told on TED. His predictions about the Arabian empire are sure worth following. good post, thanks!

I wonder if he has any u.s. government contracts.

Originally posted by deadeyedick
I wonder if he has any u.s. government contracts.

Actually he says yes. From what I've been reading, SUPPOSEDLY this fella has been called in by our government, by the CIA, etc, to give them a few briefings on what his game theory predictions have to say about Iran and everything.

reply to post by FlyersFan


I remember that his predictions said that the best solution that could happen in iran is that if we don't interfere in their quest for nukes.That was on a discovery ch show a few years ago.

He actually told he is working for the CIA since the eighties.
Yes, he told that NOT interfering in Iran's nuclear project would calm down the pressure there.
He also claims that N-Korea could be a threat if we keep looking down on them; i.o.w show them the same respect as we do onto others.

He is certainly an interesting person, I've seen a few of his interviews and although I'm a bit skeptical he seems to have a solid understanding of what he's talking about. He's going to be on The Colbert Report tonight, I'll definitely be tuning in to see/hear what he's got to say because regardless if he's correct or not it sure is entertaining to me!

I watched it.he was asked about the elections and did not mention Ron Paul.He did say that everything that was said in the interview about the election was his opinions and not that of game theory.