The Up-To-The-Minute Iran Situation Thread.

reply to post by SupersonicSerpent

Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran

This little revised version of 'Barbara Ann' first made its appearance during the Iran hostage crisis in the late 1970s. There were a few others that made the rounds as well. It was all really a very curious kind of thing because at that time, the nation was still coming down off the Vietnam war.

Even GI Joe was no longer a GI but rather, an adventurer with a camper van and hiking boots. We were a very anti-military, anti-war, anti-corporate society.

Funny how those things played out because the taking of the hostages stirred the country into anger... as well as helping the less military-inclined incumbent, Jimmy Carter, lose office to the more military-inclined Ronald Reagan.

Beyond that, the parallels between the election of 1980 and the approaching 2012 are spooky. We seem to be doomed to relive that piece of our history... I just hope this version ends as well as the previous one.

reply to post by ALOSTSOUL

I wonder how much the Saudis and other rich oil nations stand to profit from an embargo on Iran.

A whole lot, especially because oil will skyrocket to at least 150$ without a war and a minimum of 200$ if there's a war. Not to mention, the Saudis hate Iran for religious reasons and ``who's boss`` reasons.

Found this story interesting.

Russia concerned about Iran's uranium enrichment

Ya. I don't know why, but there's a lot of Iranians who hate Russia. If these people were to ever take control and have nukes, it would be dangerous to Russia... wouldn't surprise me that this is the new regime that NATO will put in place in Iran once they do their thing.

But we've heard it all before right.

Hmm not really. Iran has been attacked dozens of times in the last few years since Bush approved covert ops in Iran in 2007. Iran has been taking it again and again. Iran knows if they counterattack in any way, the warmongers will use that as a reason for war and Iran will be destroyed. But remember that this is a newspaper saying this, not the government.

Israel is pushing U.S. toward Iran war, Russian official says

Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Kremlin's Security Council, warns Iran could retaliate by blocking oil shipments from the Gulf.

Russia fears Israel will push the United States into a military conflict with Iran which could retaliate by blocking oil shipments from the Gulf, a confidant of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

"There is a likelihood of military escalation of the conflict, towards which Israel is pushing the Americans," Nikolai Patrushev, who heads the Kremlin's Security Council, told Interfax news agency.

He also said he believes Western countries are getting close to launching a military intervention in Syria, in an attempt to undermine Iran's regional standing.

In other news, water is wet.

Russian official: EU will suffer more from oil ban on Iran than U.S. will (Haaretz)

Ya think? The price of brent oil will go much higher than the price of US oil. And Europe actually imports oil from Iran, the US doesn't.

Report: Russian arms ship arrives in Syria port (AP)

Ooops. It was supposed to go to Turkey, not Syria... More anti-ship missiles to Syria from Russia?

Former UN inspector: Iran 'one year way' from having nuclear bomb material (Reuters)

Here we go :

U.S. sanctions China state trader for dealing with Iran energy sector (Reuters)

But good news :

EU IRAN OIL EMBARGO SAID TO BE LIKELY DELAYED BY SIX MONTHS

Hopefully. Everything (oil embargo + financial sanctions) will go hot in June. So war this summer.

Report: Iran agrees to discuss nuclear weapons charges

Diplomats say that after refusing to do so for years, Tehran agrees to discuss the topic during a visit by senior IAEA officials later this month.

Two diplomats told the Associated Press that the topic will be a main focus of talks set for January 28, during a visit to Tehran by senior officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Good news.

US alone against Iran oil

Turkey has announced that only a United Nations embargo on Iran oil is binding, joining China and India in opposing US sanctions on the Islamic republic. As the EU is seeking ways to postpone sanctions, a number of firms have already renewed deals with Iran

The United States is losing the fight to impose an embargo on Iran oil. The generally cooperative European Union as well as Turkey and the rising Eastern powerhouses such as China and India have failed to stand alongside the U.S. in its plans to implement sanctions on the Islamic republic.

Italian, Spanish and Greek companies have extended most of their oil supply deals with Iran for 2012, meaning the lion’s share of Iran’s supplies to the EU would likely be exempt from sanctions for at least the first half of the year.

Reuters quoted trading sources as saying Italy’s Saras, ERG and Iplom, Greece’s Hellenic, as well as Spain’s Repsol, have either extended or have not scrapped existing term supply contacts with Iran for 2012. “We kept our two-year deal with Iran,” said a trader with a refiner. “At the moment it is business as usual, but of course we are considering potential alternatives. Asking the Saudis for more crude is one possibility,” said a trader with an Italian company. Italy, Spain and Greece take 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of the EU’s imports of Iranian oil of around 600,000 bpd, according to the latest available data.

Diplomatic sources told Reuters the three countries, the EU’s most fragile economies, were pushing for a grace period of up to 12 months as an immediate switch to oil from other producers may prove too costly and painful for them. Some diplomats said when EU foreign ministers meet Jan. 23 to decide on sanctions, they will most likely agree on a compromise of six months for the grace period and no longer.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Report: Iran agrees to discuss nuclear weapons charges

Diplomats say that after refusing to do so for years, Tehran agrees to discuss the topic during a visit by senior IAEA officials later this month.

Two diplomats told the Associated Press that the topic will be a main focus of talks set for January 28, during a visit to Tehran by senior officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Good news.

This is positive. It seems to me the US want war no matter what Iran do. Thanks for keeping the thread updated.

ALS

NY times -- Dangerous tension with Iran

Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by ALOSTSOUL

 

Ya. I don't know why, but there's a lot of Iranians who hate Russia. If these people were to ever take control and have nukes, it would be dangerous to Russia... wouldn't surprise me that this is the new regime that NATO will put in place in Iran once they do their thing.

Russia has a very long relationship with Persia. Not all of it good. There have been a few wars, and very tense relations for a long time. Its only been recently that Russian and Iran have been close. IMHO, Russia is getting close to Iran for only two reason, money to be made and a big giant middle finger to the west. I dont think it has ever been a relationship of trust and mutual ambition.

U.S. official: Saudi Arabia says it has enough oil to make up for Iran (Reuters)

They are full of it. Can Saudi Arabia increase their production by 2.4 million barrels a day? I don't think so.

Russia says would be threatened by Iran military action (Reuters)

Japan PM distances himself from pledge to reduce Iran oil imports as part of U.S. push (Reuter)

+1

Iran welcomes Istanbul as venue for nuclear talks (AP)

Ahmadinejad: Development of nuclear weapons goes against Iran’s morals (Haaretz)

reply to post by ALOSTSOUL

One must keep in mind, as in the past, stepping-up and all out military intent will be dictated by local seasonal
weather patterns. This is not to be ignored, but included as a major variable in any military offence.

More on oil and embargos.

www.cbc.ca...
www.ft.com...
online.wsj.com...
mobile.reuters.com...

ALS