Russian space probe to hit earth on Jan 15.

Phobos-Grunt is going to crash soon.

"As of Wednesday morning, the fragments of Phobos-Grunt are expected to fall January 15, 2012. The final date could change due to external factors," said spokesman Alexei Zolotukhin, quoted by the Interfax news agency.

I am pretty sad that it failed, every space mission that succeeds brings us one step closer to going to other planets. But - alas:

It said that 20 to 30 fragments weighing a total of no more than 200kg were expected to fall to Earth, with the spacecraft's highly toxic fuel burning up on entering the Earth's atmosphere.

news.msn.co.nz...
Most of Earth is water , so i assume it will end up somewhere in the oceans but in any case there is no reason to panic because the chance of one of those things actually falling on someone is very very very very low.
And yet i wonder how they calculated that only 200 kgs out of 13500 kgs of probe's weight will survive long enough to impact the surface though. Most of the weight is fuel, naturally. But i think that 200kgs estimate is a bit low.

If they are like the US they always show less to keep from panic ensuing the world. Well from my experience with the military but its truly anyone's best guess why they do it you know.

I wonder if LasVegas has a line on the impact point yet?

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge



a fragment weighing just 50g travelling at 15,000 mph would make quite a mess of someone's head.








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Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
...yet i wonder how they calculated that only 200 kgs out of 13500 kgs of probe's weight will survive long enough to impact the surface though.

One thing we are sure to survive reentry is the sample return capsule, built specifically for that purpose.
Drop test of a similar capsule.



Fortunate that the fuel pods are not titanium, will completely burn up from 100 to 62 km up. Back in 08 a reentering U.S. spy satellite had large amounts of hydrazine in titanium tanks which prompted them to strike the satellite from a Navy ship, kind of appropriately, the USS Lake Eire.

I am not a fear monger by all means but i have a concern or two....... Upon reading your thread i decided to do a little research and also with another thread in regard to revelations. Well here is an interesting piece i thought i would share with those like me who didnt know.

Now i am going backwards here to go forwards....
Hydrazine

Hazards Hydrazine is highly toxic and dangerously unstable, especially in the anhydrous form. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Symptoms of acute (short-term) exposure to high levels of hydrazine may include irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat, dizziness, headache, nausea, pulmonary edema, seizures, coma in humans. Acute exposure can also damage the liver, kidneys, and central nervous system. The liquid is corrosive and may produce dermatitis from skin contact in humans and animals. Effects to the lungs, liver, spleen, and thyroid have been reported in animals chronically exposed to hydrazine via inhalation. Increased incidences of lung, nasal cavity, and liver tumors have been observed in rodents exposed to hydrazine.[30] Limit tests for hydrazine in pharmaceuticals suggest that it should be in the low ppm range.[31] Hydrazine may also cause steatosis.[32] At least one human is known to have died, after 6 months of sublethal exposure to hydrazine hydrate.[33] On February 21, 2008, the United States government destroyed the disabled spy satellite USA 193 with a sea-launched missile, reportedly due to the potential danger of a hydrazine release if it re-entered the Earth's atmosphere intact

Hydrazine (antidepressant)

The other factor
Dinitrogen tetroxide

The reason for the post

Risk Roughly 7.5 metric tonnes of highly toxic hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide are on board, according to the head of Roscosmos.[3][13] It is mostly fuel for the spacecraft's upper stage. These compounds, with melting points of 2 °C and -11.2 °C, are normally kept in liquid form; if the probe is not rescued but they remain liquid they are expected to burn out during reentry.[13] NASA veteran James Oberg said the hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide "could freeze before ultimately entering".[3] If Fobos-Grunt is not salvaged, it may be the most dangerous object to fall from orbit.[3] However, the head of Roscomos says the probability of parts reaching the Earth is "highly unlikely", and that spacecraft would be destroyed during re-entry.

Phobos grunt

Forgive me for concern but hey

Originally posted by fiftyfifty

a fragment weighing just 50g travelling at 15,000 mph would make quite a mess of someone's head.

That's reentry speed, after atmospheric slowing, most pieces hit the ground around terminal velocity, usually from 120 to 240 mph. It will still leave a mark.

reply to post by Lee78


I here your concerns. I suspect they are counting on two things.
The dispersion effect and possible burning with such high speed reentry.

But still I'd feel better if they put a bullet into the tanks while in orbit.

Also that reentry capsule may not survive if it cannot free itself from the other debris early enough.

If they are like the US they always show less to keep from panic ensuing the world. Well from my experience with the military but its truly anyone's best guess why they do it you know. signature:

The secrecy and keeping the info as low profile as possible can be understood in some cases , but the chance of something like

a fragment weighing just 50g travelling at 15,000 mph would make quite a mess of someone's head.

this happening is,as i already noted, very very very vary low. If one takes area occupied by heads (and even add legs hands bodies and stuff) it is small fraction of area of Earth.
Average BSA is 1.7 square meters for adult, lets assume all 7 billion of us are adults. It is 11,900,000,000 square meters. This is 11900 square kilometers.
Earth surface area is 510,072,000 square kilometers.
Chance to get hit is roughly 1/42000. it is not exact since there will be scores of fragments, but since i doubt they all be in square meters league i"ll leave it at that.
Chances of being killed in car crash are higher.
And they do not know yet what area will be hit.

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge


And this is how the zombie apocalypse starts.

Just sayin'

Originally posted by Illustronic

Originally posted by fiftyfifty

a fragment weighing just 50g travelling at 15,000 mph would make quite a mess of someone's head.

That's reentry speed, after atmospheric slowing, most pieces hit the ground around terminal velocity, usually from 120 to 240 mph. It will still leave a mark.

I didn't think about that. Eyes to the sky and be ready to duck.

reply to post by beezzer

And this is how the zombie apocalypse starts.

Ha. I have a friend who enhaled his share of hydrazine so that explains his current behaviour. After all Phobos is horror in Greek mythology. Grunt sounds suspicially like ground.
So it is horror when it strikes the ground! Like Zombie horror movies.
And the Phobos-grunt started in 1999. If you turn it 180 degrees (because it is falling back to Earth and not going to Mars) it will be 666. Or the 1.
Ha? Am i good at this or what?

From Anatoly Zak, a really insightful analyst of Russian space stuff:

Unfortunately, we see again an accusation that some foreign power (hence the Unites States) possibly disabled Phobos-Grunt among other Russian spacecraft, and, unfortunately, it comes from much higher source than a previous one.

Those understanding Russian can read the original source here:

www.izvestia.ru...

...but I also included a summary and commentary here:

www.russianspaceweb.com...

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
Phobos-Grunt is going to crash soon.

"As of Wednesday morning, the fragments of Phobos-Grunt are expected to fall January 15, 2012. The final date could change due to external factors," said spokesman Alexei Zolotukhin, quoted by the Interfax news agency.

I am pretty sad that it failed, every space mission that succeeds brings us one step closer to going to other planets. But - alas:

It said that 20 to 30 fragments weighing a total of no more than 200kg were expected to fall to Earth, with the spacecraft's highly toxic fuel burning up on entering the Earth's atmosphere.

news.msn.co.nz...
Most of Earth is water , so i assume it will end up somewhere in the oceans but in any case there is no reason to panic because the chance of one of those things actually falling on someone is very very very very low.
And yet i wonder how they calculated that only 200 kgs out of 13500 kgs of probe's weight will survive long enough to impact the surface though. Most of the weight is fuel, naturally. But i think that 200kgs estimate is a bit low.

edit on 4-1-2012 by ZeroKnowledge because: (no reason given)

From what I understand 11,000 kgs of that weight is the fuel alone. The remainder will burn up upon re-entry and what does survive the event will be what ever is made of titanium which apparently is not much of this craft.

Originally posted by fiftyfifty
reply to post by ZeroKnowledge

 

a fragment weighing just 50g travelling at 15,000 mph would make quite a mess of someone's head.

 

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edit on Wed Jan 4 2012 by Jbird because: (no reason given)

Honestly if I threw a rock weighing 50 grams at your head it would hurt. We dont need the 15,000 MPH to make an impact. ( pun definately intended lol)

reply to post by JimOberg


Hey Jim, They quoted you in the article posted above. LOL.

Is Russia saying that they think we took this puppy down?

Ok, no (should read the article before posting Karen)