Last poll before Iowa caucus vote has Paul in 1st

Source

The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

In the last poll before the Iowa caucus vote, Ron Paul shines in first place once again. Ron is pretty much guaranteed a win, but the only thing that worries me is them taking the votes to an undisclosed location for 2 weeks without oversight ?

Please feel free to contribute to this thread also and the last poll was actually the Des Moines Registar poll.

www.abovetopsecret.com...


It addresses some of the same things.













Go Ron Go!!

reply to post by The_Zomar
While I would love to agree that a Paul win is effectively assured, there has been a big push for Santorum and his surge does appear to be a reality.

The vote count being moved off-site does cause me some worry, as well - especially since there has been so much open admission that most of these people are vehemently opposed against a Paul win, pounding into Iowa's head how terrible it would be for them if he did, etc. They're basically CALLING for vote fraud and doing everything short (so far) of openly manipulating the results.

All I am hoping is that Santorum pulls the warmonger vote from Romney, effectively pushing Ron to first place. I really do hope that Santorum does not overtake Ron though. What is fascinating is that santorum has always been in the single digits, he is the flavor of the week apparently, just as they had planned.

The media is the only reason why Santorum is surging in the polls, the media has a great deal of influence over most of the population. If they say Bachman is surging in the polls then she magically will, or any other candidate for that matter.

Also, who are they polling for these polls? Who does polls over the weekend? Seems pretty bogus to me that Santorum would magically surge over the weekend.

reply to post by The_Zomar


You have left out some key informaiton it seems.

Ron Paul is dropping in both support and favoribility...rather significantly. A -4 in support and -8 in favorability....ouch.

www.publicpolicypolling.com...

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

It just baffles me how you see this information as confriming a guaranteed win for Ron Paul

Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by The_Zomar

 

You have left out some key informaiton it seems.

Ron Paul is dropping in both support and favoribility...rather significantly. A -4 in support and -8 in favorability....ouch.

www.publicpolicypolling.com...

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

It just baffles me how you see this information as confriming a guaranteed win for Ron Paul

edit on 2-1-2012 by OutKast Searcher because: (no reason given)

edit on 2-1-2012 by OutKast Searcher because: (no reason given)

I am going to have to agree with you.

As a Ron Paul supporter I would like to think fellow supporters would look at all the data,reflectively. Blind faith in polling is left to be desired. This is a very close race,and could easily see Dr. Paul finishing 3rd.

Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by The_Zomar

 

You have left out some key informaiton it seems.

Ron Paul is dropping in both support and favoribility...rather significantly. A -4 in support and -8 in favorability....ouch.

www.publicpolicypolling.com...

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

It just baffles me how you see this information as confriming a guaranteed win for Ron Paul

edit on 2-1-2012 by OutKast Searcher because: (no reason given)

edit on 2-1-2012 by OutKast Searcher because: (no reason given)

The only truth in this thread so far.

It will not suprise me if Paul comes in with 10%-12% of his per usual hardcore loyalist worshipper base. The truth is out on a lot of his terrible positions and he has nobody to blame but himself and the fanatic fanbase that insisted, by whining like babies, that he get more MSM coverage. He should have played it cool and silent like Santorum and swelled support at the end, then he at least would have got one victory out of the election before his terrible record destroyed him in NH.

Here's a scathing testimonial by an extremely rare level headed Paul supporter.

Source Mande Wilkes

What if they’re so enthusiastic about Paul that they alienate rather than invite?

That’s the single most significant unknown factor in the Iowa game – whether and to what extent Paul’s fierce fans will, in trying to coax others to their candidate, actually end up confirming suspicions about Paul. The suspicions about Paul, in case you haven’t heard, revolve as much around his base itself as his own views.

In a race where, just days before the caucus, the majority of voters remain undecided, caucus debates are likely to determine the winner. I’ve long argued that Paul’s supporters are often his greatest liability, precisely because they’re so gung-ho about their candidate

She basically is afraid the Paul supporters are going to lose the election for him. I agree with her fears, the final nail in the coffin will be how revolting the rabid fanbase will be when unleashed in the actual caucus rooms. Can you imagine arguing with a pack of these people who are convinced Ron Paul is better than the second coming of Jesus?

Originally posted by TinfoilTP
Here's a scathing testimonial by an extremely rare level headed Paul supporter.

Source Mande Wilkes

What if they’re so enthusiastic about Paul that they alienate rather than invite?

That’s the single most significant unknown factor in the Iowa game – whether and to what extent Paul’s fierce fans will, in trying to coax others to their candidate, actually end up confirming suspicions about Paul. The suspicions about Paul, in case you haven’t heard, revolve as much around his base itself as his own views.

In a race where, just days before the caucus, the majority of voters remain undecided, caucus debates are likely to determine the winner. I’ve long argued that Paul’s supporters are often his greatest liability, precisely because they’re so gung-ho about their candidate

She basically is afraid the Paul supporters are going to lose the election for him. I agree with her fears, the final nail in the coffin will be how revolting the rabid fanbase will be when unleashed in the actual caucus rooms. Can you imagine arguing with a pack of these people who are convinced Ron Paul is better than the second coming of Jesus?

What the hell did you just say? 2nd coming of Jesus? I have friends who are millionaires, and some who are poor. They are the most level headed people I know, and most support Paul. The smartest people I know and have talked with agree Ron Paul is the best option. Its clear that you have a fake dislike for Paul.

CNN has him here saying he's after Rick Santorum now, then RP calls Santorum a liberal

reply to post by capone1


To me it's clear you need a more diverse field of friends. Every one of your friends are convinced, when in Iowa itself at best only 20% were convinced hours before the voting.

Originally posted by ModernAcademia
CNN has him here saying he's after Rick Santorum now, then RP calls Santorum a liberal

Santorum needs to come back asking why paul was snuggling up to Barney Frank with his Soros defense cut committee. The NH primaries are going to get real nasty and Santorum is getting a huge boost in funding.

Source

A senior Santorum adviser tells CNN the campaign raised more money in the last week than they raised on-line the past six months, adding that fundraising is between 300% and 400% higher on a daily basis than it was just ten days ago.

If anyone believes Santorum has more support than Ron Paul they need to take a step back from battlestar galatica and take a look at the real world. Santorum? Really? His events garner about 12 supporters. He went to a buffalo wild wings and only turned people against him. Santorum doesn't stand a chance against Paul. The iowa caucus will be louder than words.

Gingrich just handed off his voters, and since they were voting for him it is doubtful they will turn to Paul, expect the 10% he had to go to Santorum. If they were with Newt then they probably did not like Paul or Mitt and Santorum is trending.

Gingrich: 'I Don't Think I'm Going to Win' Iowa

Read more: www.foxnews.com...

Originally posted by TinfoilTP

Originally posted by ModernAcademia
CNN has him here saying he's after Rick Santorum now, then RP calls Santorum a liberal

Santorum needs to come back asking why paul was snuggling up to Barney Frank with his Soros defense cut committee. The NH primaries are going to get real nasty and Santorum is getting a huge boost in funding.

Source

A senior Santorum adviser tells CNN the campaign raised more money in the last week than they raised on-line the past six months, adding that fundraising is between 300% and 400% higher on a daily basis than it was just ten days ago.

edit on 2-1-2012 by TinfoilTP because: (no reason given)

No, Paul needs to ask chickenhawk Santorum who's going to fight the war he would like to start. I'm not worried about it though, Santorum won't last through 2-3 caucuses/primaries. In fact I wish he would stay in the race longer in order to drain some of his RINO cash. He's worth a good joke at least. Same as Bachman except her campaign left for Paul. Who wants to make a bet that Bachman drops out after Iowa, and Santorum drops out after New Hampshire?

Ron Paul will ride easy street throughout the caucuses and primaries. I don't know if there are enough confused people anymore for another Obama or Romney win. Seems like a lot of people are waking up.

Originally posted by freedom12
Please feel free to contribute to this thread also and the last poll was actually the Des Moines Registar poll.

www.abovetopsecret.com...


It addresses some of the same things.

Go Ron Go!!

edit on 2-1-2012 by freedom12 because: (no reason given)

The Des Moines Registar is indirectly owned by Romney so they don't have too much credibility on 2012 election issues. PPP is much more accurate, and Ron is sitting in 1st.

If all of Santorum's supporters came into the subway at ames, iowa the Fire Marshall would say "sure no problem, thats fine...we still got some seats in the back"

Just looking for info, do you guys in the USA have "exit polls"? Would just like to see who people have voted for, it gives a pretty accurate reading. I dont trust TPTB at all in this vote, a third party independant exit poll will help flush out fraud

I hope Paul wins tomorrow, but I'm calling it now.

The Paulbots here on ATS and elsewhere have been repeatedly bringing up their concerns regarding the off-site vote counting.

If Paul doesn't perform well, you watch the Paulbots claim voter fraud to here and high heaven with the vote count location being the cause.