Latest Polling Average for Iowa...Romney and Paul are tied for first...Santorum surging.

Looks like Romney is pulling back up to the front. Paul had a lead a week ago...but it is slowly and steadily declining.

Anything can happen in 5 days...but the trend right now is Romney moving up and Paul moving down.

Santorum continues to surge as well...as I said in a thread yesterday...he may surprise a lot of people.

www.realclearpolitics.com...




It's going to be a close one in Iowa...possibility of a 3 way close race for first.

Should be exciting...I'm looking forward to it.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


That line chart is very exciting for me!

All of the other candidates are erratic with big ups and downs, whereas Pauls is a steady increase from the beginning to now. Paul supporters are loyal, and they don't bounce around a lot, while all the other candidates are trading support back and forth. If this trend continues, which it should, then Paul will be the very clear frontrunner by the end of January, and the GOP will have an extremely difficult time not endorsing him as their guy.

So Ron Paul is on the steady decline for now, eh?


But if he wins, and he will, Iowa's caucus will be discredited.


All of the excuses will come out, like they have been.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher
Come on, Tuesday! The suspense is killing me.

I will say that CNN poll skews things a little since it was republican-only without including any dem or indy votes (haven't been made aware of the others yet to see if that issue extends), but even then I can imagine party insiders frothing at the mouth over Paul getting 22% of actual republicans (jinkies!).

reply to post by getreadyalready


I like the graph too...gives a nice visual of the trends in the race.

But Ron Paul's line is declining at the moment...that is not a good sign 5 days before the first Caucus.

It's so volatile right now...I don't think anyone can accurately predict what is going to happen in Iowa.

All it means to me is that there is still no clear front runner...that is all i can gather from these numbers.

Support isn't volatile for the Paul campaign unless he picks up on soft establishment support, Paul's main base of support will always be steady and rising.

reply to post by eLPresidente


Right now he is on the decline...that is just what the numbers are saying. Who knows what will happen tomorrow...no one can say. Like I said...it is very volatile right now.

It's not up to me or you if the Iowa Caucus is discredited if Ron Paul wins...that is up to the media. The Iowa Caucus is all about the media...Ron Paul is accepting that by participating in it.

I know one thing...the "winner" of the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday will be no closer to winning the nomination because no delegates are awarded at the Caucus.

reply to post by Praetorius


At this point, and this close to the Caucus...they should be skewing their polling toward registered Republicans.

I believe all the precincts already have their lists of registered Republicans..so any non-Republicans will have to change their registration at the Caucus. The way the Caucuses are set up...they can't register a large amount on the night of the Caucus.

So polling Republicans only at this point is a good polling strategy...not perfect...but better than polling everyone.

Originally posted by eLPresidente
Support isn't volatile for the Paul campaign unless he picks up on soft establishment support, Paul's main base of support will always be steady and rising.

Everyone has their main base of support right now.

Right now the only ones that matter are those that haven't decided yet...and they are very very volatile...likely to change their vote even on the night of the Caucus.

Like I said...no one can predict this one...it's too close.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Yep, that little down tick at the end is not a good sign, but what encourages me is that his up and down ticks are less dramatic than the other candidates, and overall his trend is slow and steady upward. I'm sure a big push is underway from now through Tuesday, and only one poll really counts!

I think, by the end of January, it will be a clear 2 person race between Paul and Romney.

reply to post by getreadyalready


I honestly don't know what will happen come the end of January.

I think Romney will still be in it...because he has been steady at the top the whole time.

But Paul has made ground in Iowa, Santorum is coming out of nowhere in Iowa too, and Huntsman has abandoned Iowa to focus on New Hampshire...which is what McCain did in 2008.

It sure is a crazy crazy race.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Romney isn't making any mistakes. He is going to be in it to the bitter end. His campaign is professional, he is likeable, and he is middle of the road. I don't think he can beat Obama, because he isn't different enough, but he is a very polished candidate.

Huntsman is a great guy, but I don't think he will ever have the fundraising or support of Paul, Romney, or Obama. He will drop out after Florida, and hopefully he will endorse Paul and get a nice VP or Cabinet position!

Gingrich is the company man. He will do whatever the GOP tells him to do, and he will hang around to be the guy, or the spoiler, or play whatever role he is ordered to play.

Bachmann may drop out after Tuesday, and Santorum is just the next guy to spike and fall off. He isn't going to get the nomination, but apparently he is playing the spoiler role for Ron Paul for now. He spiked and Paul dipped. Hopefullly that little blip doesn't grow!! I think Santorum will be gone after Florida as well, but who knows. His religious pull is pretty big, and he is a likeable guy. He might stick around and between him and Newt, they might just pull enough away from Paul to make Romney the main guy. I hope not!!

I wouldn't trust the polls. They plan on going off to their secret hide out to count up the votes. We seen how the worked out before. Check out black box voting on youtube from the 08 elections if you don't know what I'm talking about.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher
Hmmm. I suppose that makes a decent bit of sense. Thanks again.

reply to post by getreadyalready


That's a fair and reasonable analysis.

But still...everything seems so up and down...I wouldn't be surprised if it all gets mixed up one more time before it all gets sorted out.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


We could still have a dark horse enter the race like a Palin, or a Glenn Beck!! That would toss everything on its ear!

reply to post by getreadyalready


Wouldn't that be something.

I could see Palin entering...I don't know about Beck, I honestly haven't been paying attention to him lately.

I don't claim to be an expert in all the machinations and nuances of US politics, but, as far as I can see, the biggest problem for Ron Paul fanboys is that he occupies a niche amongst the Republican candidates because of his uber-Constitutionalist and extreme libertarian stance.

Surely, once some of the other candidates for the Republican nomination drop away, such as Bachmann or Gingrich, then the lion-share of their supporters will endorse a more mainstream candidate like Romney, rather than - for want of a better phrase - a left-field kook like Paul ?

reply to post by Sherlock Holmes


I think you're wrong about that. The Tea Party and the OWS are proof that anti-establishment is very vogue at the moment.

Also, a mainstream Republican has no shot at picking up the Independents, 3rd parties, Blue Dog Democrats, and disenfranchised democrats, so a mainstream Republican will be a fish in a barrel for Obama. It will be a landslide Obama victory.

An anti-establishment niche with support from all the disenfranchised and independent voters is exactly what we need!

Originally posted by getreadyalready
I think you're wrong about that. The Tea Party and the OWS are proof that anti-establishment is very vogue at the moment.

It may be very vogue, in terms of publicity, but I'm yet to see any indication that there's widespread popular support for their ideologies. While I'm not so sure about the Tea Party, OWS just come across as a very small, whinging minority suffering from extreme Entitlement Syndrome. They would have to have over 300,000 ''occupiers'' to even make up 0.1% of the American population.

Originally posted by getreadyalready
Also, a mainstream Republican has no shot at picking up the Independents, 3rd parties, Blue Dog Democrats, and disenfranchised democrats, so a mainstream Republican will be a fish in a barrel for Obama. It will be a landslide Obama victory.

Like I say, I'm not entirely sure of all the ins and outs of US politics or the nomination procedure for elections, but won't most of the voters at the Republican primaries be genuine Republicans ? As I understand it, non-Republicans can register for the party to vote, but how many ''average Joes'' will actually do this, as opposed to those who are already registered because they have an affinity towards the party and its ideology ?

As Republicans are largely conservative, they must generally favour a more ''traditional'' candidate, such as Romney or Perry. I just don't see how Paul could get an equal share of support from the other candidate's support bases as they eventually drop out of the race, one by one.

Originally posted by getreadyalready
An anti-establishment niche with support from all the disenfranchised and independent voters is exactly what we need!

I could see that having some support on a national level, but I'm just questioning how he's even going to make the last two in the Republican race, let alone achieve the nomination.