Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by Doodle19815

I've been checking online news reports and things don't look too serious, considering:

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia, April 11 (Reuters) - An 8.7 magnitude earthquake struck off Indonesia on Wednesday, sending residents around the region scurrying from buildings and raising fears of a huge tsunami as in 2004, but authorities said there were no reports suggesting a major threat.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage in Aceh, the Indonesian province closest to the earthquake.
........
"The electricity is down, there are traffic jams to access higher ground. Sirens and Koran recitals from mosques are everywhere," said Sutopo, spokesman for the agency.

But Yudhoyono said there were no signs of a disaster.

"There is no tsunami threat although we are on alert," said he said at a joint news conference in Jakarta with visiting British Prime Minister David Cameron, who said Britain was standing ready to help if needed.

"The situation in Aceh is under control, there's a little bit of panic but people can go to higher ground," Yudhoyono said.

(Bolding mine.)

Full report at AlertNet.


So, they might have dodged the bullet this time.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Good news! Thanks Mike. I kept picturing the Japan Tsunami and was scared for the people over there. I am glad this is playing out better than Japan.

reply to post by Doodle19815

Yes, it's great news, really. And in the report I've cited above, it also says:

One expert told the BBC the Wednesday quake was a "strike-slip" fault, meaning a more horizontal shift of the ground under the sea as opposed to a sudden vertical shift, and less risk of a large displacement of water triggering a tsunami.

Source: AlertNet article (as referenced in my previous post).

So, there we go. A strike-slip movement, most likely. Ergo, far less chance of it producing a major tsunami.

Query for anyone who has the data: I've been following the recent discussions about how "quiet" the world has been in the past several days in respect of quakes. And now we get two mag eight-plus quakes within a few hours.

So, does anyone happen to have data that shows whether a similar situation existed before the last really big Asian quake of 2004? Or others, for that matter? I seem to recall that before the March 11 2011 Japan quake, things were pretty normal worldwide. But before the Asian quake? I don't have the data right here. Okay I could search it out, but perhaps someone has the data available and could comment?

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

So, does anyone happen to have data that shows whether a similar situation existed before the last really big Asian quake of 2004?

I intend looking into that and have said so on westcoasts thread about the quake.

reply to post by yourmaker


No not really. It is a big release.


reply to post by SpaceJockey1

Though I predicted a 7+ for the time period, I certainly didn't conceive that an 8+ was in the offing!

Still a good call.

On the other hand have been saying we could get a megaquake 8.5ish this year as the final gasp of the cycle.

The total energy of the 8,2 and 8.6 is the equivalent of an 8.665

Does this mean there will be no more in the 8+ this year? I believe if does purely on gut instinct of course and please note I am a total failure at gambling!!

I can't believe I've been so busy I nearly missed this event. Thanks to a certain member who has a trusty fb page to keep me informed.
Westcoast's thread unfortunately seems to have been turned into a bit of a circus. So I gave up following it and came here. I'm surprised that the info seems so sketchy.
I look forward to Puterman's answer to Mike. Thanks to you both.

reply to post by PuterMan

Thank you. I was hoping you would...

It would certainly be interesting to find out.

(I've edited out my next question -- that was here -- as you've already answered it. )

Mike

reply to post by zenius

I'm surprised that the info seems so sketchy.

Probably because I started a thread 4 minutes after Westcoast and it got zapped so I ended up on hers. Actually it is not so bad once you get past kennvideo.

reply to post by JustMike


Very quick response is no there is no similarity.

Back with a graph in a mo.

OK, I only hold mag 5 data for world wide quakes that far back but on the principle that we had very few or no Mag 5 quakes recently then the data should show some big gaps for the idea to hold good. Unfortunately it does not

The graph is the daily count of all quakes for each day from 2004-300 to 2004-360 (Boxing Day or St Stephens)

You might argue that the first 30 days was busier than the seconds but there are no days with no mag 5 quakes - not even 1 in the full 60 days.




Back again. I have got quite a long one here you might like to see (CHART OK?)

This is the same data but with the magnitude equivalent for the day added in. So each day the energy is summed and then converted back to a magnitude.

reply to post by PuterMan

Very good of you to get that data up so quickly. Many thanks!

It seems, then, that we probably cannot infer a great deal from the recent lull, at least in respect of bigger, Asian region quakes. But it's better to be able to exclude an idea than have it running around and leading us nowhere special.

And now I must go to lunch...

Best regards,

Mike

Global CMT has the big shock at just 8.0. So the aftershock was probably in the 7.6 range, maybe less.

Of course the first thing I did was open up monitoring on Yellowstone after this big quake. It seems lately YS is responding more to triggered seismicity. I wonder if at some point something changed at the park? Cause it definitely lit up with a few quakes after the 7+ in Mexico, and the big quake before that. But this big one in Sumatra, like the one in Japan, didn't seem to affect the park much. Seems like they have to be coming from the south to have any affect- just something I have been noticing.

And all my readouts are still full of S-waves, bigtime...

Is the lull over yet?
Did I miss anything?

There was at least one one couplet of quakes before things got back to normal. Glad no big wave. These quakes may be a remnant of 2004 as the region resettles.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Global CMT has the big shock at just 8.0

Linkypoo please Meesta. I do not see it here. earthquake.usgs.gov...

Geofon have 8.6 for the main one and 8.0 for the second

GeoAzur mainshock 8.7

reply to post by PuterMan


Although I believe everything is connected, there are no obvious patterns showing. Maybe when we can monitor stress build up we'll have better luck?

Originally posted by zenius
reply to post by PuterMan

 

Although I believe everything is connected, there are no obvious patterns showing. Maybe when we can monitor stress build up we'll have better luck?

I would love to win millions so I can sit and do this all day long. No wait I already do that. I mean have the money to have the equipment to play with it all day long.

I am trying to get round to the stress project world wide but they will insist on having more earthquakes to distract me that need to be blogged etc.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

According to the theoretical P-wave travel times map for today's (m 8.6) Sumatra quake, most of Nth America (including YS) is in the P wave shadow zone.

Could that be a factor in these Indo region quakes not having any apparent triggering effect around YS?

EDIT to add: however, the theoretical P wave travel times map for the March 11, 2011 Japan quake shows the US was not in the shadow zone.

So, I'm flummoxed on that one...

I know that some Alaska quakes remotely triggered events in YS, but as for these others? I would have thought they might (especially the huge Japan quake), but it seems very hit and miss for some reason.
(End of edit)

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Very possibly, and that was a very astute answer!

Star for you, for even thinking about it. I can confirm YS is not in the S-wave shadow zone though, that's for darn sure. I got mega S-waves at YS still, even now from that big quake, or its aftershock. Could be that it takes compressional (P) waves from a southerly direction headed north, and from a much closer distance to initiate triggering. I dunno exactly, but that is an excellent question for a scientist I know. I will ask, and see if they have any opinion on that.

EDIT: Actually, given what John Vidale said when I asked him if refracted and/or reflected waves could eventually end up in the shadow zones with really big quakes like this one, and he said yes, that there were multiple phases of the waves that would end up in the initial shadow zones eventually, as they bounced off of several deep earth layers, and were redirected.

I've been making a few predictions lately and think I may be on to something. It involves how animals know how to leave an area of seismic activity. My correct short term predictions seem to have a pattern. It's not the toilet flushing hard or the sink draining fast persay. It may be me just noticing it.

I think there is some sort of magnet anomaly created before the quake that follows the magnetic field around the earth. The quakes I sense seem to follow close to this N/S magnetic field. I sensed the last two quakes for different reasons but they both happened and they were around the world from me. I had a weird feeling before Haiti too and most times around Indonesia. It seems that the correct predictions I sense only follow this pattern. It may have something to do with me living near underground running water too. Maybe the fluctuation of these lines of the magnetic field is somehow felt. If the lines of declination are offset that may have a little influence in other areas also but I/m close to straight where I live I still can't figure out how animals would narrow it down further though, maybe they just travel east or west to get away from it just to make sure. The buck says "Hey guys, lets go on a sight seeing trip to the east of here". Same thing might happen with volcanos


There is only a few hours advanced feeling of these quakes. 2 to 6 hours max. There is no way of knowing how far around the globe either. I am not certain that this is the reason but it seems to be more than just a coincidence. Mounting pressure or pre-quake activity is sensed? Not sure if it's even real and have no way of testing this hypothesis.

Or I could just be spending too much time studying my awareness of things and be going a little KoKoo

reply to post by JustMike


qvsdata.wordpress.com...

Third video Mike. The shadow zone is NOT devoid of seismic signals.

reply to post by rickymouse


Go talk to Mike on the alternative earthquake predictions thread. I don't have the link just now but I am sure you can find it.

I am sure there are energies given off before a quake. You don't stress that much material without there being some sign.