Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by JustMike


I don't know much about trees, so I'll pass on those questions. Yes, it would be good to find thicker sediments to trace longer timelines of earthquakes. I'm not sure of the limits, and more data would firm up or contradict the clustering theories.

The finer layering with each turbidite layer has been taken to mean separate bursts of shaking during the minutes of rupture of an M9 earthquake, but I don't think that is right for some technical reasons.

reply to post by PuterMan

Agreed, I've never seen any reports that suggest an M9 with an epicentre in Cal is either likely or possible, but I have seen ones that talk of 8-plus.

Here's one from the LA Times (Oct 8, 2010): San Andreas fault capable of magnitude 8.1 earthquake over 340-mile swath of California, researchers say [Updated].

It refers to a report from the journal Geology, and then goes on to say:

Now, according to U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones, it is entirely possible that all 340 miles of the southern San Andreas could be ready to erupt at any time. Such a scenario would trigger a magnitude 8.1 earthquake, said Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, a calculation with which Jones agreed.

"All of it has plenty enough stress for it to be ready to go," Jones said. "The biggest implication of [the report] is that it increases the likelihood that when we do have a big earthquake, it will grow into the 'wall-to-wall' rupture."

(Plenty more in the report but due to T&Cs I've only quoted a small chunk.)

So, while your statement from last May turned out correct in one respect (as there was no mag 8 or bigger in Cal in the ten-month period you referred to), it doesn't mean there can't be one. But a mag 9? I have no idea where people drag those ideas from. Like you, I have never seen a shred of evidence that there's anywhere in Cal capable of producing something that massive. If it's out there I wish someone would let us know!


reply to post by JohnVidale

Many thanks for the clarification, John. I see what you mean now. At least, I hope I do!

And thanks also for passing on that query about the trees. It will be interesting to see what the response will be.

Best regards,

Mike

Magnitude mb 5.2
Region VANUATU
Date time 2012-03-13 23:16:24.0 UTC
Location 17.73 S ; 167.11 E
Depth 60 km
Distances 1804 km NE Brisbane (pop 1,843,392 ; local time 09:16:24.4 2012-03-14)
1198 km W Suva (pop 199,455 ; local time 11:16:24.4 2012-03-14)
127 km W Vila (pop 35,901 ; local time 10:16:24.4 2012-03-14)

EMSC

Hey I just registered to post this. I don't have rights to make a new thread. Is anyone aware of explosions in Boston? Apparently a big 115kvolt transformer blew tonight and large parts of the city are without power.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 6.8
Date-Time

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 at 09:08:37 UTC
Wednesday, March 14, 2012 at 07:08:37 PM at epicenter

Location 40.899°N, 144.923°E
Depth 26.6 km (16.5 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

234 km (145 miles) S (169°) from Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan
292 km (181 miles) E (80°) from Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
347 km (216 miles) ENE (67°) from Morioka, Honshu, Japan
736 km (457 miles) NE (36°) from TOKYO, Japan

This one is a bit shallow.. will see if anything comes of this.



Low threat level according to NOAA
ptwc.weather.gov...


No tsunami threat issued for Hawaii
ptwc.weather.gov...


Updated notice for Pacific
ptwc.weather.gov...


As noted below, advisory issued for North-Eastern coastal regions of Japan - possibility of tsunami about .5 meters (1.5 FT)
www.jma.go.jp...


As noted 3 posts down
Waves: "Expected time expected reach height 6 p.m. Eastern Hokkaido Pacific coast: 40 50 cm Hokkaido Central Pacific coast at 6 :40 p.m. Pacific coast Aomori Prefecture 50 cm 6 :40 p.m. Iwate Prefecture, 50 cm 6 :40 50 cm"

reply to post by BeyondPerception


EMSC have just come in with it as a mag 7.

It was kind of a long time coming. I had expected something slightly larger even.

Location in Google Maps

The 4 data sets are as follows:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
USGS 2012-03-14 09:08:33, 40.700, 145.200, 6.8, 10.0, Off E. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
EMSC 2012-03-14 09:08:35, 40.948, 144.796, 7.0, 5.0, Off E. Coast Of Honshu Japan
USGS 2012-03-14 09:08:56, 40.700, 145.200, 6.8, 10.0, Off E. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
JMO 2012-03-14 09:09:00, 40.700, 145.200, 6.8, 10.0, Sanriku Oki

The double entry for USGS above looks like it may just be double reporting trouble

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 18:12 JST 14 Mar 2012

******************Headline******************
Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IWATE PREF.
*******************Text********************
Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:

PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IWATE PREF.

***********About Tsunami Forecast************

Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters. Attention advised.

******* Earthquake Information ********
Occurred at 18:09 JST 14 Mar 2012
Region name SANRIKU OKI
Latitude 40.7N
Longitude 145.2E
Depth about 10 km
Magnitude 6.8

www.jma.go.jp...

reply to post by mrmateo


Welcome to ATS and in particular to Quake Watch.

Here you will find some of the best information about earthquakes on the Internet. Why do I say that? Because the members who frequent this thread, and those who lurk and occasionally stick their heads up into the firing line on the whole produce excellent work that is based on facts.

You will find some of the alternative geophysical theories on this thread: Geophysics which is hosted by Zenius who you will also see on this thread.

Anything of a speculative nature to do with Yellowstone / Fracking / Arkansas / Bird Deaths / Hudson Bay / Life / Death / Resurrection / the Economy / Politics / Religion etc you can post on the thread hosted by Robin Marks/Eric Blair: Robinesque Ruminations

Volcano stuff you will find on Volcano Watch and last but by no means least the giant Yellowstone thread is a BIG read all about the Park that has passed page 700.

These and more ATS links, and links to many external sites you can find in my signature block and in the signatures of others.

Never be afraid to ask a question about earthquakes or related issues. We will always try to answer, and no one gets ridiculed here because of a lack of knowledge on what is a complex and multifaceted subject.

Is anyone aware of explosions in Boston?

In short no I personally am not aware and I am wondering what relevance this has to earthquakes if any? If there is some earthquake related aspect to this event please advise.

Waves: "Expected time expected reach height 6 p.m. Eastern Hokkaido Pacific coast: 40 50 cm Hokkaido Central Pacific coast at 6 :40 p.m. Pacific coast Aomori Prefecture 50 cm 6 :40 p.m. Iwate Prefecture, 50 cm 6 :40 50 cm"

www3.nhk.or.jp...

GeoScience says 7.4.

reply to post by murkraz


EMSC have just dropped it to 6.9 Mw.

I guess GeoScience have it wrong if JMO are also saying 6.8

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by murkraz

 

EMSC have just dropped it to 6.9 Mw.

I guess GeoScience have it wrong if JMO are also saying 6.8

People on the MeSO tool have just said this.

[March 14, 2012 18:54] evacuation advisory: tsunami warning, Mutsu City, Aomori, Iwate and Kamaishi, Iwate Prefecture, city, Ofunato city, rikuzentakata city, town, and YAMADA fudaimura both in coastal residents to activate evacuation.

5.9 aftershock just registered by JMO and EMSC. Waiting for USGS details.

USGS came in at 6.1

Magnitude 6.1 off the east coast of Honshu. Japan

Location in Google Maps

• Date-Time: Wednesday, March 14, 2012 at 10:49:24 UTC
  Wednesday, March 14, 2012 at 08:49:24 PM at epicenter
  
• Location: 40.799°N, 144.770°E
  
• Depth: 9.5 km (5.9 miles)
  
• Region: OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
  
• Distances:
  243 km [151 miles] S [173°] from Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan
  278 km [173 miles] E [82°] from Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
  331 km [206 miles] ENE [68°] from Morioka, Honshu, Japan
  719 km [447 miles] NE [36°] from TOKYO, Japan
  
  
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 14.1 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 3.9 km (2.4 miles)
  
• Parameters: NST=528, Nph=535, Dmin=191.5 km, Rmss=0.81 sec, Gp= 65°,M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
  
• Source:  Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  
• Event ID:  usb0008gui
  

Derived from Data Source: USGS
Powered by QVSData

5.9 was mb, 6.1 is Mw, JMO is 5.9 Ml

reply to post by murkraz

People on the MeSO tool have just said this.

[March 14, 2012 18:54] evacuation advisory: tsunami warning, Mutsu City, Aomori, Iwate and Kamaishi, Iwate Prefecture, city, Ofunato city, rikuzentakata city, town, and YAMADA fudaimura both in coastal residents to activate evacuation.

Why would these people be giving a warning timed @ 18.54 when the tsunami such as it was was due to hit @ 18:40

From your own post:

Iwate Prefecture, 50 cm 6 :40 50 cm"

6:40

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by murkraz

 

People on the MeSO tool have just said this.

[March 14, 2012 18:54] evacuation advisory: tsunami warning, Mutsu City, Aomori, Iwate and Kamaishi, Iwate Prefecture, city, Ofunato city, rikuzentakata city, town, and YAMADA fudaimura both in coastal residents to activate evacuation.

Why would these people be giving a warning timed @ 18.54 when the tsunami such as it was was due to hit @ 18:40

From your own post:

Iwate Prefecture, 50 cm 6 :40 50 cm"

6:40

Not sure. I just pasted it assuming they knew their stuff.

Looks like another, a 5.7. EMSC is saying 2km depth for a 5.9 (USGS: 6.1) and 5.8.

reply to post by murkraz


Yes I flagged the 6.1 above.

I note that EMSC has two quakes 9 seconds 8 minutes (Thanks justmike) apart Same or differable? Different reference numbers. Different events therefore as not 9 seconds apart

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2012-03-14 10:57:39, 40.744, 144.824, 5.8, 10.0, Off E. Coast Of Honshu Japan
2012-03-14 10:49:24, 40.796, 144.834, 5.9, 10.0, Off E. Coast Of Honshu Japan

That 5.8 appears to have an automatic moment tensor on EMSC of 6.3

www.emsc-csem.org...

Since USGS have 6.1 and the tensor solution is not in yet, maybe there will be a big increase.

The same people have the 5.9 as a 6.5, against GFZ 6.0

www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by PuterMan

Hello Puterman,

looks to me like they're different events. The site still has them listed as two events, but as I read their times (HH:MM:SS) they are over eight minutes apart, not nine seconds. I'd agree though that both are located close enough to the (EMSC) mag 6.9 to be considered as aftershocks of that event.

Regards,

Mike

www.ustream.tv...

There appears to have just been either a 6.2 then a 6.3, or just a 6.3. Seismograms went crazy.

reply to post by mrmateo

As Puterman pointed out, this thread is mainly to consider matters relating to earthquake activity, rather than other goings on.

There is a small thread about the Boston transformer explosion and you can find it here. However, I didn't find any particular references to quakes. Some suggest solar effects (if anything beyond normal failure occurred) but that's about all.

But if you have any queries about quakes -- or info you'd like to share, this is a good place to post.

Regards,

Mike

Magnitude mb 5.5
Region NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Date time 2012-03-14 12:04:56.6 UTC
Location 36.24 N ; 141.71 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 186 km E Tokyo (pop 8,336,599 ; local time 21:04:56.6 2012-03-14)
102 km E Hitachi (pop 186,307 ; local time 21:04:56.6 2012-03-14)
96 km NE Hasaki (pop 39,209 ; local time 21:04:56.6 2012-03-14)

EMSC

reply to post by PuterMan

Puterman, you've doubtless got the data to hand for this query: could you confirm that in the region where this latest run of quakes has happened off the Japanese coast, it is highly unlikely that there is a fault (or related subduction zone) that would have sufficient pent-up energy to produce a really major event anytime in the near future?

I expect this to be the case (ie, the energy for another ~M9 just isn't there), but would like some confirming data to hand if we start seeing comments/threads on various boards that might pop up in the coming hours or days, "warning" of another mag 9 in that particular fault region...

Many thanks,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Duh!! So they are!

Obviously my mathematical powers are at a low ebb this morning!!

Thanks for pointing out the error.