Quake Watch 2012

I am sick. I am not going to die. I just wish I could. I finished watching all eight seasons of Monk. Still to ill to engage the world, I found an earthquake movie. So, being it's Saturday night. Let's all go to the Drive In.
Once I live in a town where they had a drive in and a tornado hit it. The movie Twister was due to be played later in the evening. A guy on his way to the drivein, and as he was driving, he looked out his passenger window and saw a twister on his way to the movie twister. It's true. I saw that tornado front come in and hit our town.

Oh our first film is from the 1970s. The Day The Earth Moved!

www.youtube.com...

And if you don't like my first selection- bugger yourself- just kidding. You can always watch Moses save L.A. from the monster earthquake.

www.youtube.com...

Damn, now that I found Earthquake '74 I'll watch that first.

Lest I can eat now. miserable day.

reply to post by ericblair4891


Oh our first film is from the 1970s. The Day The Earth Moved!
actually looks really good
great now i get too share your pain. lol

ill get the popo,,,,,corn,, ,,,lol

nice pick

Other than the second week of last month and a couple of 6+'s for May, things have been exceedingly quiet, to say the least. Even given some prime solar & planetary arrangements this month, still no 7+'s for around six weeks now.

OR...are we lulling ourselves into a false sense of security, and things are actually building up to something BIG to happen in the second half of the year...maybe not enough energy being released of late???

I'm starting to feel that we are going to be rattled by a mega-quake similar to last year's Japan one, that's going to cause much anguish.

I'll finish by saying that I had a very vivid Volcano dream that was on an island resort somewhere in the Pacific, and people on the beach area were trapped between fast moving lava flows that had blocked off a large section of the beach. I really hate these sort of dreams.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

I'm starting to feel that we are going to be rattled by a mega-quake similar to last year's Japan one, that's going to cause much anguish.

Tell me, why is it that no one is interested in the other scenario that I have been putting forward that it will overall be quieter this year with one Mag 8.5 (which we have had) ~120 mag 6 and ~16 mag 7.

Oh of course, silly me. No doom. Ah well, never mind. So far we are statistically bang on target for my predictions.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by SpaceJockey1

 

I'm starting to feel that we are going to be rattled by a mega-quake similar to last year's Japan one, that's going to cause much anguish.

Tell me, why is it that no one is interested in the other scenario that I have been putting forward that it will overall be quieter this year with one Mag 8.5 (which we have had) ~120 mag 6 and ~16 mag 7.

Oh of course, silly me. No doom. Ah well, never mind. So far we are statistically bang on target for my predictions.

Heh heh

Well...at the rate things have been going up till this point, even YOUR predictions are not looking too good. At the current rate we might be struggling to even get to the low 2001 levels which are inline with your predictions above.

So far we've only had 5 x 7 mags five months into the year, so might struggle to break 12 at this rate. Likewise there's been only 43 x 6 mags, so looking like even breaking a 100 for the year will be an effort.

PuterMan do you really believe that after a 10 year upward trend, that this year we're going to see numbers drop to 10 year LOWS, as the trends are currently showing?

I mean it would be really good to see this result eventuate, especially as it would throw a spanner in the works of the 2012 'end of the world' doomers.

Let's hope that 9.2 you predicted near Chile doesn't come to anything!

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

Let's hope that 9.2 you predicted near Chile doesn't come to anything!

No you predicted it, I just drew the red dot to match what you saw in your dream.

I make it 54 mag 6 quakes - see here - so how come you get 43? If it was possible to just use that figure of 54 as the base then that would give 129 for the year.

ETA: Sorry forgot to answer your question. Yes I do believe this year will end up being substantially quieter over all. I believe that the total energy output of for the year of Mag 5+ (in other words those that I count for my annual report) will be no more than 850 Petajoules which puts it on a par with 2007 which was 824 PJ. Currently we are at about ~650 PJ

Counting what we have now and what I think we still have to come:



2007 had a very high Mag 5 count @2095 which was only exceeded in the decade by 2011. We have ~650 Mag 5 so far but I am allowing 1800. My 850 energy allows for slightly larger quakes in the range as we have seen this year but the values above are based on 7.5. 6.5 and 5.5 respectively.

Of course Mother Nature does not give a toss about statistics so....................I shall probably be wrong.

Puterman, or anyone who knows better (a long list indeed), could you tell me the magnitude of this latest earthquake? I was just assuming the small earthquakes you can see at the top were about 1M. So, I was concerning myself with trying to figure out the siemos scale. It looks different than others I watch. You complain about magnitudes. I am annoyed by all the various forms of online webicorder. Shut up now.



I would guess the quake is 1.9M.

I am going to look for an article on the 9.5 in 1960 in magnitude compared to other earthquakes. Hold on...

Had to edit, there was another one...

www.scientificamerican.com...

Edit. Now I'm wondering if it was a 4.6M near Oaxaca. But there's two signatures. Ug, this is why I don't like watching new, and different siemos. They all have issues such as cultural noise and transmission. nuff


Edit. I answered my own dumb question. There were three quakes near Oaxaca.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by SpaceJockey1
I make it 54 mag 6 quakes - see here - so how come you get 43? If it was possible to just use that figure of 54 as the base then that would give 129 for the year.
*snipped*
Of course Mother Nature does not give a toss about statistics so....................I shall probably be wrong.

Thanks for the reply PM. I got my 43 x 6 quakes from: WIKIPEDIA Not sure what they left off as they list each individual quake below, but then on a list on the right-side of the page, I see that they show 55 x 6 quakes, and then when you count them month by month, the total comes to 48! Damned confusing & obviously not reliable.

You're right about mother nature..and I think she will begin heating things up again from next month, and end up exceeding your low numbers & energy predictions for the year

Magnitude mb 6.3
Region SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
Date time 2012-05-28 05:07:22.0 UTC
Location 28.23 S ; 63.15 W
Depth 582 km
Distances 366 km N Córdoba (pop 1,428,214 ; local time 02:07:22.6 2012-05-28)
311 km SW Presidencia roque sáenz peña (pop 81,879 ; local time 02:07:22.6 2012-05-28)
121 km SE Santiago del estero (pop 354,692 ; local time 02:07:22.6 2012-05-28)

EMSC

Just adding the revision and USGS stats.

Magnitude 6.7

Monday, May 28, 2012 at 05:07:23 UTC
Monday, May 28, 2012 at 02:07:23 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 28.061°S, 63.077°W
Depth 588 km (365.4 miles)
Region SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
Distances 52 km (32 miles) NNW of Anatuya, Santiago del Estero, Argentina
117 km (72 miles) ESE of Santiago del Estero, Argentina
249 km (154 miles) SE of San Miguel de Tucuman, Tuc., Argentina
838 km (520 miles) NNW of BUENOS AIRES, D.F., Argentina
earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

I see that they show 55 x 6 quakes, and then when you count them month by month, the total comes to 48! Damned confusing & obviously not reliable.

I think the probably the most accurate count of USGS published Mag 6+ quakes can be found here

That list is generally up to date with 24 hours of any event. (The delay is to cope with changing figures. Once I think it is settled I will publish it.) I then check it's progress during the 30 days on the list and then each quake is checked against the final ANSS value about 6 to 12 months later. Months or individual entries are marked ‡ where the ANSS check has been done.

UPDATE to post by PuterMan


And here is one for you.

Magnitude 5.7 Mw New Britain region. Papua New Guinea 16-May-12 (b0009qsw)

A fall from grace for this Mag 6.0



ETA: And a small upgrade to Chile 6.2 > 6.2

UPDATE to post by PuterMan because of the erroneous editing times fiasco


Duh! ETA: And a small upgrade to Chile 6.2 > 6.2

ETA: And a small upgrade to Chile 6.2 > 6.3

Past it's 2 hour 4 hour sell by date so can't change it. It really is time this site got that sorted. It is either 2 hours or it is 4 hours but let us have the facilities agreeing. Not 4 hours but only allowing 2.

I can't find any summary on the Italy quake of 20/05/2012 on USGS, perhaps there is one, but I'm going off USGS in a big way.

Heres my summary, aftershock map and timeline graph
Pianura padana emiliana, Italy 5.9ML 20/05/2012 02:03:52
screenshot of the interactive map (theres a 5.9 buried in there somewhere)

In memory of

- Nicholas Cavicchi, 35, resident of San Martino (Ferrara) and killed while working in factory in Sant’Agostino
- Ansaloni Leonardo, 51, resident of Reno Centese (Ferrara) and killed in the same factory as Mr. Cavacchi
- Gerardo Cesaro, 59, resident of Moline.
- Tarik Naouch, 29, residing in Crevalcore. Mr. Naouch was killed in the Ursa factory in Ponte Rodoni di Bondeno
- Nerina Balboni, 103, got a heart attack when she was buried partly by debris
- 37 year old German woman died of a heart attack in Bologna
- Anna Firs, an elderly woman of 86 years got sick at the time of the earthquake and perished in a hospital because of a heart attack later. Anna Firs lived in Vigarano Mainarda.
earth quakereport.com

This morning, there was a 5.2 one felt all over Tokyo and Kanagawa.

reply to post by muzzy


The Italian quake is definitely there because I looked at it this morning.

here you go

Is it just me or has northern and central California been really really quiet for the past couple of hours? I don't think I've seen it without quakes for this long... I keep refreshing, expecting to see at least a mag 1.0 in the usual places...

I got the feeling that we're goina have a big quake in the next week. I have nothing more than a feeling. Getting too quiet again.

6.2 mag just hit south of Fiji...PM the last couple of days has bumped up the 6+ number average

I take the above back for now as USGS has it at only 5.9

Magnitude 5.9
Date-Time

Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 03:33:26 UTC
Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 03:33:26 PM at epicenter

Location 22.010°S, 179.489°W
Depth 605.4 km (376.2 miles)
Region SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
Distances

450 km (280 miles) WSW (257°) from NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
3165 km (1967 miles) WSW (256°) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.4 km (8.3 miles); depth +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
Parameters NST=510, Nph=596, Dmin=537.7 km, Rmss=1.03 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=3
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb000a1kl
/ex]

edit on 28-5-2012 by SpaceJockey1 because: Update

Northern Italy just wobbled

Magnitude
5.8
Date-Time
Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 07:00:03 UTC
Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 09:00:03 AM at epicenter
Location
44.814°N, 11.079°E
Depth
9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Region
NORTHERN ITALY
Distances
40 km (25 miles) NNW (330°) from Bologna, Italy
60 km (37 miles) E (88°) from Parma, Italy
71 km (44 miles) S (175°) from Verona, Italy
149 km (92 miles) NW (313°) from SAN MARINO
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 12 km (7.5 miles); depth +/- 4.1 km (2.5 miles)
Parameters
NST=400, Nph=401, Dmin=210.4 km, Rmss=1.32 sec, Gp= 25°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000a1mn