Quake Watch 2012

i believe if they look closely ,,
they,,
will find a newly, fractured seam, forming,,,
it was two new fracture points
hits,,,
a) 6.2 and
b )6.5
connected by a new split,, X long by a width of ?
in the face of the "shelf",, where it rises in towards shore,,,
at least thats my prediction,

Me.

Originally posted by bcccl

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1
reply to post by bcccl

 

Looking at the location on Google Earth, I was wondering just how this would be felt, as it appears to actually have been an on land quake, near populated areas.

Are you close to the epicenter?

the epicentre was in valparaíso, which is two hours away. the last two in march were more wobbly, the first one especially was short followed by fluid movement not unlike being on a ship at sea. i have lived in chile for over twenty years and the last few have been the most active in memory, the 2010 one in particular really hit home that we are living at the mercy of nature.

Next to having our own local major earthquakes, my biggest fear has always been of tsunamis hitting our shores, and unfortunately our biggest risk here in New Zealand, is from a megaquake generated off CHILE!

Three of the larger historical tsunamis to reach New Zealand (in 1868, 1877 and 1960), with heights of 5 to 10 metres, have resulted from major earthquakes off the western coast of South America. The Aleutian Islands and Alaska are also potential sources.

Peru–Chile tsunami, 1868

In August 1868, an earthquake of about magnitude 9.0 offshore from the Peru–Chile border generated a devastating tsunami. The earthquake and tsunami killed thousands of people along the South American coast. Spreading across the Pacific, it became the largest recorded distant tsunami to strike New Zealand, affecting many ports and causing substantial damage on the Chatham Islands and Banks Peninsula.

Chile tsunami, 1960

The most powerful earthquake of the 20th century was of magnitude 9.5, off the coast of Chile on 22 May 1960. It generated a tsunami that killed several thousand in Chile and across the Pacific, including 61 people in Hawaii and 199 in Japan.

In the late evening and early morning of 23 and 24 May the first of many tsunami waves began arriving at New Zealand’s east coast. The tsunami caused wild fluctuations in the water level along the coast for several days, damaging boats and harbour facilities.

In the North Island, at Napier, waves that reached 4.5 metres above high-tide level damaged a footbridge over the Ahuriri estuary, wrecked many pleasure boats and swept others out to sea. At Scapa Flow the waves inundated beach homes and boat houses. At a seaside campground at Te Awanga, north of Hastings, eight people were washed out of their tents, and waves battered cabins.

Further north at Whitianga, the waterfront road and the airport were flooded, and a number of small craft were washed out to sea. During later fluctuations the sea retreated from the shore, exposing the wreck of HMS Buffalo, which had sunk in 1840. Some people ran out to the wreck to collect relics, but were forced to retreat when the sea returned.

At the port of Lyttelton in the South Island, the tsunami came in at 2.7 metres above the tide level of the time, damaging boats and electrical gear. A hotel and several houses were flooded, and 200 sheep drowned.

Unfortunately for me, for many years I have had very vivid dreams, that revolve around massive waves submerging my surroundings, and causing devastation...

I guess that I shouldn't worry greatly though, given that we should have at least 12 hours or more of warning.

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1

i think we zealanders and chileans are in for more of this, the pacific ring is very active as of late. at least our countries are more or less prepared for this stuff, in chile we are raised to expect quakes and our building codes reflect this. on a personal note, the 2010 (and in your case the christchuch quake, i imagine) was an eye-opener to quakes as a destructive force rather than something you brush off, it really was awe-inspiring and humbling.

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1unfortunately our biggest risk here in New Zealand, is from a megaquake generated off CHILE!

haha, sorry about this. i also was afraid of being swept away by a giant wave as a child, especially on vacation at the coast where one could hear the waves at night. terrifying thought, even to this day!

Originally posted by bcccl

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1unfortunately our biggest risk here in New Zealand, is from a megaquake generated off CHILE!

haha, sorry about this. i also was afraid of being swept away by a giant wave as a child, especially on vacation at the coast where one could hear the waves at night. terrifying thought, even to this day!

Of course you'll have far less time to react if there's another big one over there, so please take care and be prepared.

Really, I shouldn't worry about what 'might' happen, as I've survived around 10 near death experiences since age six (4 near drownings, poisoning with only 20 minutes left to live if I hadn't been rushed to hospital, a steel pole popping my eye out and leaving me 30 stitches, as well as numerous motorbike and car crashes, that I don't know how I survived).

Always make me shake my head when I hear about people that only have one accident in their lives, and it kills them.

Oh, and to stay on topic, I've also been thru 2 x 7.1 mag quakes (1968 and 2010), plus the 2011 Feb 6.3 killer quake here in Christchurch.

7.0


earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 7.0 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 07:13:50 UTC
Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 05:13:50 PM at epicenter

Location 5.600°S, 147.200°E
Depth 202 km (125.5 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances

130 km (81 miles) N (10°) from Lae, New Guinea, PNG
156 km (97 miles) ESE (104°) from Madang, New Guinea, PNG
204 km (127 miles) ENE (75°) from Goroka, New Guinea, PNG
430 km (267 miles) N (360°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 35, Nph= 35, Dmin=382.2 km, Rmss=1.04 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=1
Source

West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00m2m431

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1

to be honest i'm less worried about life/limb than material damage. the 2010 quake shook the place up to the point where the main pipe to the water tower fractured and began to drip, then gush, and eventually the staircase ceiling collapsed under the weight; it was sheer luck that no one was under it when it did, which would have been a stupid way to die. anyway, it was a nightmare to fix and i'm not looking forward to a repeat performance, as you can imagine.

Mag 6 plus from 3/20 til now

reply to post by berkeleygal


Okay, a stupid question! Is this normal as everyone is saying? Are we seeing this because there are more stations reporting and more comms to communicate with or is there any sort of uptick happening?

And as I said on the 7.0 PNG thread, I ask because I am interested not afraid!

reply to post by wiser3


I dunno, sometimes I post stuff here just for the archives.

I do know those two 8's in Indonesia were not normal.

Originally posted by wiser3
reply to post by berkeleygal

 

Okay, a stupid question! Is this normal as everyone is saying? Are we seeing this because there are more stations reporting and more comms to communicate with or is there any sort of uptick happening?

And as I said on the 7.0 PNG thread, I ask because I am interested not afraid!

Is more information coming in: Yes

Is this normal activity : Yes? um ........

Is there an uptick occurring : Hell Yes

Originally posted by berkeleygal
reply to post by wiser3

 

I dunno, sometimes I post stuff here just for the archives.

I do know those two 8's in Indonesia were not normal.

Two 8's indeed was not normal

reply to post by dreamfox1


Excellent dreamfox1, thanks for posting here

Should end up a bit less than 7 mag going by past events.

Magnitude mb 5.5
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Date time 2012-04-17 08:51:23.0 UTC
Location 31.72 S ; 176.87 W
Depth 2 km
Distances 2940 km E Brisbane (pop 1,843,392 ; local time 18:51:23.9 2012-04-17)
921 km NE Tauranga (pop 110,338 ; local time 20:51:23.9 2012-04-17)
892 km NE Whakatane (pop 18,602 ; local time 20:51:23.9 2012-04-17)

Source parameters not yet reviewed by a seismologist
EMSC

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by wiser3

Observations

Since 2004 we have had several major earthquakes round the ROF.

Banda in 2001 (9.1), Chile in 2010 (8.8), Japan 2011 (9.1)

In each of these areas aftershocks are likely for a decade or more. Why would anyone be surprised about larger earthquakes in these areas?

As John Vidale pointed out stress gets transferred to other areas. Are these quake in other areas. Yes. So why the surprise? I would just clarify that these are still in the same region.

How many of you remember the 1960 earthquake? I have a vague memory of it that is all, but I remember Mexico 1985 better. Our lifetimes and attention spans are so much shorter than the cycle of Earth. In my short lifetime of 64 years (in a few days) seismicity has gone from high to low to high again. It will go to low again even possibly in my lifetime. People born in the 1970s or later have no concept of the earlier pattern and there was little communication to convey it.

Exactly the same can be said of climate change. It happens, and in longer cycles than we perceive so when we see a slice of time changing up or down it is OMG something is happening,

There is NOTHING unusual about the current seismicity. It may be outside of your experience, but that is all.

To go back to B1 bombers again, a few of those could ensure secure earthquake proof buildings in many areas, but humanity is so wrapped up with "me me me" and what profit "me me me" can make that it in general it does not care about the rest of the world. Of course I am not applying that to all you good folk, but in the places where it matters and something could be done, it does apply.

There will be more major earthquakes in the years to come. That is guaranteed. Is this unusual? No, all just a part of the planet we live on.

M5.6 - L'Esperance Rock, New Zealand
2012-04-17 08:51:26 UTC 451 EDT

reply to post by PuterMan


Well then Happy Birthday in a few days.

I don't remember the 1960 quake but I clearly remember the 1964 Alaska earthquake on Good Friday. In 1975 I got to see Anchorage and lots of Alaska. I remember the street in one area was like a "dry bayou" or a very deep ravine that followed the street. There weren't even steps up to the tourist shops from the sunken street.

I also saw the aftermath (many years if not a decade later) of the Mexico City quake.

Consequences don't disappear in a short period of time.

Now, we have a constant information feed on quakes. Prior to the net, we had to rely on television or radio or newspapers and they would only report the REALLY big ones.

reply to post by Trexter Ziam


Thanks

but I clearly remember the 1964 Alaska earthquake on Good Friday.

There you go see, I don't remember that one being reported at all. The world was a quiet place back then! NOT!

reply to post by PuterMan


Good to see you're awake PuterMan.

Any chance that you've got an updated list showing the energy released comparisons for say 2010/2011 and for the same periods to date?

Say 2010 to April 17th and 2011 to April 17th.

Appreciated if you can provide.

reply to post by PuterMan


I do understand and not so much suprised but curious/interested!

What some may not realize is that none of you consider where you are/were right now/when the quakes happened!

I was born in Zambia (1959) and in 1969 family moved to Namibia, here we don't quite have, and have never had, the same coverage of events such as these compared to most of you who grew up with and are used to decent coverage via MSM/WEB etc.

I have been a member on ATS since sometime in 2009 and its only since then that I have managed to glean a much larger amount of info regarding these happenings!

One of the first BIG events I can remember as a child was the Neil Armstrong moon landing, we sat glued to the radio, fascinated!

Still learning, everyday, thanks to all of you and ATS!