Which SHTF Scenario Is The Most Probable One and What Is Your Plan When It Happens?

Just like the title says - which SHTF scenario you find to be the most probable one and what is your plan when it happens?


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reply to post by survivaloftheslickest

If such things happen I guess I am going to have to wing it. There no point in worrying about hypothetical scenarios that are unlikely to happen.

The most probable right now are a disease/virus outbreak or a war.
I dont really have a plan because I can always think on my feet but its good to stock up on non perisables, water, tools, flint etc..

I am well prepared for just about anything that is man-made. If a comet slams into the Earth, well, I will just put my head between my legs and kiss my ass goodbye.

reply to post by survivaloftheslickest


My plan is to continue doing what I'm doing now through self-reliance, and be as independent of this fragile system as possible, not only to prepare for the EVENTUALITY of some catastrophe, but because freedom is the most precious thing a man can possess.

What type of catastrophe might arise is meaningless, just as what might go wrong with a vehicle is meaningless; many always keep the various tools that one might need to fix their car available. This is only basic logic.

While it's "fun" to plan for doomsday scenarios it is more unlikely than nan-made ones I believe.

I believe (and I have been around 46 years, prepped for 25 & seen a few things) that the biggest threat is another great depression, economic collapse world wide and/or world war 3.

I think your right mwood....

The main thing is to just keep on livin...if you have things you use and need on hand, than you can get through about anything. If it would be long term, than a few preps are in order, but even a few hundred $$ now on the basic needs will go a long way in a major event.
The hardest thing...depending on what the event is, will more than likely being able to stay under the radar of those around...and if your leaving once a event has happened, you might wanna really think it through. It all depends on what has happened.

Trick is to get food stored away now, so when the SHTF all you'll need is gas, batteries, and whatever supplies for heating. As the herd raids Walmart like a Black Friday gone wild, the gas stations and and bottled water mfgs should be all clear.

Well, I grew up a bit of a redneck, spent some time in law enforcement, I think whatever the situation...I'll do what humans do best and adapt.

If that doesn't work, then I meet the inevitable destiny sooner than later.

The most likely is a nuclear disaster from warfare where the many hundreds of power plants go off line and melt down due to an EMP. The resulting radiation will literally end human life on the earth. Think of Fukushima a thousand times over and around the entire world.

What do you do. Nothing. Time would be to short so I would be more concerned about where I would be going when I leave here, and since I know where I'm going. I'm all set.

The most likely scenario?

Complete economic collapse, and the attendant social upheaval. Following along with that would be total infrastructure breakdown, power outages, water shortages, etc...

My humble opinion? Gather a small group, family and friends, and if a place is large enough, hunker down. Not up in the back of beyond, but a little farmhouse or something similar, out of the way... Plant your garden. Dig your well, if you don't have one already. Make sure you're as self sufficient as possible. Don't move around. At least while things are unsettled... As things, one way or another, settle out, then begin to move about.

Keep your head. Take no foolish risks.

1) weather disaster. I'm on the East coast and hurricanes AND blizzards happen. these are short-term events, tho power might be cut off for weeks in a real catastrophic one. fairly local impact.

2) economic meltdown/civil breakdown. since I work for the gummint I might end up one of your FEMA guards. if there is no gummint I'm probably screwed.

3) NBC attack (Nuclear/Biological/Chemical, aka weapons of mass destruction) personally I'm probably too close to D.C. to get out of this one. good time to find a pen pal in Idaho. 'local' attack (al Quaeda) would be bad enough; mass attack (Chicoms, Russkies)...end of western civilization as we know it. Hey, we had a good run.

4) New Madrid or other quake / geological event with national impact (Yellowstone). I fear long-term degradation of the System with this one. may never recover, in our lifetime. and we think things are bad now?..

reply to post by survivaloftheslickest


Since your introduction spoke of your interest in this topic, I would like to hear your answers to the questions you posed. What scenario(s) do you find most likely? Why? What have you done so far to prepare? What is your plan at this point?

Looking forward to hearing more. And by the way, welcome again to ATS! I'm sure you'll find lots of interesting information here.

Originally posted by Open2Truth
reply to post by survivaloftheslickest

 

Since your introduction spoke of your interest in this topic, I would like to hear your answers to the questions you posed. What scenario(s) do you find most likely? Why? What have you done so far to prepare? What is your plan at this point?

Looking forward to hearing more. And by the way, welcome again to ATS! I'm sure you'll find lots of interesting information here.

edit on 12/10/2011 by Open2Truth because: grammar misshap

I think I would agree with the economic collapse. However, there is so much happening right now, that any factor can be the decisive one, even the one we least expect. It's like a convergence of misfortunes, a conflagration. I don't think we can prepare ourselves 100%, but I do think we need to prepare both our inner and outer worlds.

reply to post by survivaloftheslickest


World War leading to a nuclear fall out where very few survive.

For anything else, there's Mastercard. (ok...just joking)

I am pretty much prepared for anything else though. Plenty of everything to last for a very long time. Economy crashes, NWO, worldwide virus, electric grid failing or alien invasion.

And if we all die from an (ELE) ex: asteroid slamming well...nothing I can do about that one really.

How about you, Survivaloftheslickest? How prepared are you?

I think I would agree with the economic collapse. However, there is so much happening right now, that any factor can be the decisive one, even the one we least expect. It's like a convergence of misfortunes, a conflagration. I don't think we can prepare ourselves 100%, but I do think we need to prepare both our inner and outer worlds.

good point re convergence.
scenario; blizzard shuts down D.C. / northeast, bad guys set off a wmd during cleanup. double whammy, with panic as we wait for What Comes Next.
I think few people realize just how fragile the system is these days. very, very little margin for error. one seemingly minor event at right time/place could have hugely assymetrical impact.

i see the USA consolidating Global hegemony on money/finance matters with the USD not only the accepted Reserve Currency...also the Petro Dollar until at least 2015

i see a very tightly controlled population under a gestapo like DHS in tandem with State NGs and FEMA

i see the use of the USD $ far more used and accepted than the Euro € worldwide...

the USD will be the accepted means of exchange based on the military might of the 10,000 nukes and the uncounted Atomic Munitions that are not accounted by any international agency...

the low yield, tactical weapons that are pinpoint accurate will cause most of the world community to use the USD even though it technically is bankrupt and would reasonably belong in the hyperinflation category... and therefore unacceptable, except the threatened use of force if the Nations do not accept It as having Value.




my longer range goal to survive this SHTF scenario, is to have this residence hooked up like George Ure's compound...in that it produces enough electric from Solar, that the utility is required to buy the excessive power production... thus helping to pay the annual taxes on the property (~$250 mo.)


with less actual payments of actual money, we will have more resources to apply to 'other' things...things needed to overcome unseen events or even getting blackmarket supplies while we are in the several year crisis

Where I am living the most likely scenario would be a hurricane hitting Florida. If its bad enough then I'd get out of dodge. Grab some basic gear and go to family up north.

As far as economic collapse, Im not worring about it to much right this second. Yeah, the head lines are scary but Im not buying into it just yet. To me all this bad news is starting to remind me of what happened after 9/11 where every day we heard "Terrorist threat" for at least 3 years in a row. Yeah things are pretty bad right now and I hope they dont get worse but Im making moves to be more self reliant anyways on a day to day basis. My biggest fear would be to invest all this money into something and then nothing happens, especially when I could use that money for other things now. Im just keeping things pretty simple for right now.

reply to post by survivaloftheslickest


id, say total collapse for either, poor economy, or a pandemic. either way im leaving the city amd hiding out in the wilderness if possible, ill either, try to head in to the rocky mountains, or the okanogan. both have what i think seems like good survivial conditions, plently of water, plants, and animals, and the okannogan has very good year round tempreture. the catch is they are both very far away, so it will be difficult

I dont think there is an answer. Mankind is no dummy...we have been around a long time and WTSHTF most dont fair well. which is probably nature running its course. My question comes to me. Do I have enough grit to make it through anything...I hope so...Dad taught me to hunt. Grandpa taught me how to garden. Army taught me how to react to being hunted and hunt mankind.

First Sgt always said "stay flexible" ....we dont have a built in crystal ball but we can see trouble coming from a long way away... the secret to playing chicken is knowing when to flinch..The line at the gas station will be as long as the line at walmart...sorry dude!!

Look at what happened when Russia collapsed.. The Mafia's took over to keep some sort of rule. Thats what would happen here. I expect. That means being submissive to an even more evil than we have now but it would keep anarchy away for the most part.

When it comes time to flee to the hills there could be check points. Anybody traveling out would be noticed.And stopped and robbed.or worse. That said would it be better to go off afoot with a picnic basket and be unnoticed?
If its a natural disaster people will pull together quickly...but if its man made it will be every man for himself for a long while till people pocket together..Anarchy will abound and disease and that my friends is a really big fear to carry around