Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

reply to post by RumET


Thank you RumET. I am much older and wiser now so have no fear of mother nature. In-fact from the age of 7 i got into natural science and am now studying towards a Bachelor of Science degree.
I absolutely love the weather and am quite excited about the potential storms. But a part of me is still a little scared as i have young children, but i am always prepared for the worst all the time.
My children know how much i am into the weather and i think that helps them to stay calm too

reply to post by reg


Yes. Basically the lower the number the worse the weather. The weather that brings you nice sunny days are usually associated with a higher pressure i.e.1050mb. The lower the number the worse the weather. The lowest recorded pressure worldwide ever was around 820mb. The lowest ever in the UK was 925mb.

wow, wow, wow, wow, wow !!!

I dont suffer from "Little Country Syndrome". I live in the UK. A fairly big country in the grand scheme of things.
I appreciate the warnings etc.

All I was trying to do was calm people down. Sometimes posts/threads on here can scare people. I am not saying bad weather isnt coming, all I am saying is, here in the UK and especially the North, we are used to it. We deal with it. We had a power cut a few years back, lasted a few days, we lit some candles, and looking back, it was good fun.

If the worse should happen, and the entire North part of the UK is blown into Norway, I will say sorry.
I wasnt having a dig (a go) at anyone, all im saying is (Like other places on earth) we (you) learn to deal with the cards you are dealt, be it weather, or whatever.

This isnt a peeing contest people. Bad weather is coming. Last year was VERY VERY bad. So far the weather has been better this year. fingers crossed.

Peace out, to all.

Shauny xx

ps:
I was right slap bang in the middle of the one last week, I posted this:

Originally posted by shauny
I am right in the middle of where this is going to hit. I will (if I can) keep you posted. If its REALLY bad I will take some video and post it. I hope its not THAT bad. I have to sons at college tomorrow.

In this thread: www.abovetopsecret.com...
Nothing bad happend "REALLY". So I wont be holding my breath, or rushing out to buy food and water and candles just yet.

I have not once had a personal go at anyone, and I am not going to start now. I am giving my opinion.
I sit here, and I love ATS, and to be fair, its disaster after disaster. ELENIN anyone?
So you will forgive me if I dont panic.

ps: OP. Thanks for the heads up non the less.

Originally posted by TiocfaidhArLa
(as its 3.27am I haven't read the whole thread but thought I would add a little)
Situated on the NW coast of Ireland I have been watching these 2 storms closely. Now it must be said they COULD turn out to be catastrophic, especially the 2nd of them but the charts in the opening post are updated every 6 hours or so and as of now the first of the storms is downgrading with each run. Any chart more than 5-6 days out is commonly known as an FI chart ( fantasy island).
These charts are computer models and subject to change as an event gets closer. There are around 5 commonly used and referenced computer models and each one differs in its inturpretation of data and forecasts it's programmed probable outcome.
As an event comes closer the models begin to fall in line and when there is enough agreement that is what you get in your weather forecast. The UK met office and the Irish met office use different models for reference and hence at this stage their forecasts are different for both events.
The first storm will more than likely be a storm alright but at this stage nothing cataclysmic. Care should be taken and unnecessary travel etc avoided.
As for the 2nd storm well at the minute that's a whole different matter entirely. If, and it is a big if this far out, the storm went as forecast on the latest charts it would be biblical ! Wind speeds are literally off the charts as is pressure. Isobars are packed to tightly the look like one big blob. Chart watchers with many years experience have never seen anything like it even on FI charts.
IF it happened as now forecast the distruction and lose of life would be serious.
I am sure the the OP will furnish this thread with charts as they become available. In my experience the vast majority of these storms downgrade and/or shift course northwards. Maybe just maybe this is the one that won't. Only time will tell. Keep checking back here. I too will keep you informed of both storms progress.

Absolutely right here with this explanation. Currently trying to catch up after a whole 24hours without the net. Looks like a slight down-grade on the models at present for both storms. Currently looking at gusts of 60-70mph for Tuesdays storm and potentially 70-90mph for Fridays storm. Will revert back once i've reviewed the latest model outputs!

Gosh...only been away 24 hrs, and it seems the storm has changed course and speeded up and landed here!
No wonder the pressure is easing off the real storm...it's all here.
Whatever happened to the friendly banter, and factual discussions in between?

Going into lurking mode

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by shauny


If the northern part of the UK was blown into Norway I'd be highly upset. I rather enjoy the long, mountainous country. Having angry and confused Scots running all over it would be a true disaster rivaling Hurricane Bawbag. Just to lighten things up a tad. In other news, seems the foreca(s)ts weaken the low somewhat. Though it's still a very potent low, Mew. And to the Science Person who was afraid of storms as a child. Congratulations! Perhaps you can use science in the future to guide unwanted and destructive forces of nature places they can rage harmlessly on.

Originally posted by RumET
reply to post by shauny

 

If the northern part of the UK was blown into Norway I'd be highly upset. I rather enjoy the long, mountainous country. Having angry and confused Scots running all over it would be a true disaster rivaling Hurricane Bawbag. Just to lighten things up a tad. In other news, seems the foreca(s)ts weaken the low somewhat. Though it's still a very potent low, Mew. And to the Science Person who was afraid of storms as a child. Congratulations! Perhaps you can use science in the future to guide unwanted and destructive forces of nature places they can rage harmlessly on.

I am not going to bring myself to your level with a reply.
But "Bawbag"..........

It seems from latest models that the Thursday /Friday storm has flopped. Very technical term I know. Next run in the morning should tell whether this is a computer blip or a complete rethink of the storms power and course. Hurricane Carmen disappeared for 72 hours before resurfacing and slamming into us here in Nov '10 so I wouldn't write this storm off yet.

Originally posted by TiocfaidhArLa
It seems from latest models that the Thursday /Friday storm has flopped. Very technical term I know. Next run in the morning should tell whether this is a computer blip or a complete rethink of the storms power and course. Hurricane Carmen disappeared for 72 hours before resurfacing and slamming into us here in Nov '10 so I wouldn't write this storm off yet.

Indeed. This response from the ECM has puzzled a few. Myself included. Other models are still predicting it though.

Personally, i have a feeling that the ECM will pick it up again tomorrow. I find it strange that the model shows the LP on Wednesday, but not of Thursday, then over the North Sea of Friday. I think there is data missing or something not right with the model...

Need to go but i'll post an update in the morning!

reply to post by jrmcleod

Do you have sources of these models please?

Originally posted by jrmcleod

Originally posted by TiocfaidhArLa
It seems from latest models that the Thursday /Friday storm has flopped. Very technical term I know. Next run in the morning should tell whether this is a computer blip or a complete rethink of the storms power and course. Hurricane Carmen disappeared for 72 hours before resurfacing and slamming into us here in Nov '10 so I wouldn't write this storm off yet.

Indeed. This response from the ECM has puzzled a few. Myself included. Other models are still predicting it though.

Personally, i have a feeling that the ECM will pick it up again tomorrow. I find it strange that the model shows the LP on Wednesday, but not of Thursday, then over the North Sea of Friday. I think there is data missing or something not right with the model...

Need to go but i'll post an update in the morning!

Thats exactly what i was just thinking after looking at the Met site, this is really confusing for me at the minute

Watching the BBC news weather and they've just said for Tuesday to expect high winds of 60-70mph across Northern Ireland and the Scottish central belt...
BUT they also went on to show the following storm for Thursday in its current position 'brewing' out over the atlantic and bringing 'the potential' for damaging gusts and they have issued a yellow level early warning for wind.
Seems like they're just playing it safe atm
It could easily fizzle out or change direction and i think they're just being carefull

*he said at the end to keep updated with news in case of changes

According to BBC weather the first storm will be coming in over Wales about 3:00 tomorrow afternoon with a lot of rain and 'increasingly windy' lasting all the way through till about 5:00 Tuesday morning where the severe 60+mph winds will come in

Originally posted by da pickles
the predictions from grib and MB indicate that southern ireland , south west england and the english channel will be hardest hit on thursday night around 22:00 when the storm reaches land 100kmh westerly

I'm seeing Thursday 18:00pm - Friday 12:00pm, with dangers to Ireland North & South, Wales, Scotland & Northern England, The eye "if you like" passes over northern Ireland and then move on over Scotland,

The model sees Fridays storm come in on the south west coast of Ireland, to then move north when making landfall,

The past weeks model had it headed for the south of England, guess we will know for sure come Wednesday

Some interesting changes to Thurs & Fri at the Met Office.
Amber alert for the whole UK and Ireland , for both days .


www.metoffice.gov.uk...

Has any of you ever seen a yellow alert warning for the entire British Ilse before?

Thursday & Friday
www.metoffice.gov.uk...

i guess they are still not sure where it will hit hardest


[EDIT]

Fridays model has changed again, it will continue into the south of Ireland and track into the midlands UK & south of England, 960mb

reply to post by BRITWARRIOR

Has any of you ever seen a yellow alert warning for the entire British Ilse before

I have but not for wind.

ALS

I was due to fly back to the UK this week. Am I doing the right thing in postponing my trip based on this information?