Election over! Who's next?

Bush will win in a landslide, so let's look ahead to 2008!


My guess...Guliani/Jeb Bush vs Hillary/Ubama

With Guliani being a moderate they are gonna have to balance the ticket, McCain cannot do that. With Bush they take Florida and with Guliani they take New York.

I know 100% that Hillary will run...that is why Kerry has no chance in this election. Ubama just seems like an up and comer, that is why I picked him.

At last, an optimist. Its refreshing to see. Lest anyone mistake my meaning, I say this without any guile whatsoever. I don't think the election will be as close as many seem to think (or, I suppose, hope).

The NRA would assassignate Giulianai before they let that NY liberal be President.

Republican runoff between McCain and Pataki with the necon nod to Pataki (unless they run a dark horse for PNAC).

how about dont listen to those stupid newsweek poles, there hardly accurate...wait till the actual election.

Is this a joke? The recent polls show a boost of 2% for Bush with both him and Kerry still running at a statistical dead heat. Bush may win but its still going to be close no matter what.

I would lose all the hope I have left in voters if a slick convention with zero substance created a landslide for Bush. He may have his worshippers but he's no Reagan.

Bush wins in a landslide?

You obviously have no clue what you are talking about.

Dead thread.

it appears no one on this thread has gotten the polls right. i wouldn't go as far as to say bush will win by a landslide, but bush has certainly more then a 2% lead over kerry. most polls are reporting an 11 point bounce from the RNC with bush leading 53 to 42.

For the Republicans:

President



Vice President

How about this then?

Gallup/CNN/USAT - B/52 K/45 N/1
Newsweek - B/52 K/41 N/3
Time - B/52 K/42 N/3
Zogby - B/46 K/43 N/3
AR G - B/47 K/47 N/3
ABC/WP - B/48 K/48 N/1
ICR - B/45 K/48 N/2

Looking at this, I can't tell who is ahead. Is anyone one Polling agency more reliable than another?

The data can be found here

i'm just curious, does Gehirne have anything to contribute to ATS?

Originally posted by astroblade
it appears no one on this thread has gotten the polls right. i wouldn't go as far as to say bush will win by a landslide, but bush has certainly more then a 2% lead over kerry. most polls are reporting an 11 point bounce from the RNC with bush leading 53 to 42.

I didn't post a 2% lead, I said a 2% bounce in popularity. All polling is fine to read for daily consumption but the ugly truth is that most polls miss a large portion of opinion on both sides and with roughly two months to go before the election a lot of these polls will go both ways many times I would suspect.

Originally posted by Bleys
How about this then?

Gallup/CNN/USAT - B/52 K/45 N/1
Newsweek - B/52 K/41 N/3
Time - B/52 K/42 N/3
Zogby - B/46 K/43 N/3
AR G - B/47 K/47 N/3
ABC/WP - B/48 K/48 N/1
ICR - B/45 K/48 N/2

Looking at this, I can't tell who is ahead. Is anyone one Polling agency more reliable than another?

The data can be found here

I'd say they are all accurate. If you look at that link (very nice site by the way) the graphing shows an obvious trend over time toward Bush. The reason all those polls can be different AND accurate is they took place at different times....DURING A CONVENTION.

So wide swings by day make sense.

Now, what MAY discount those last two polls showing the HUGE lead for Bush is they were done in very short windows on Thursday and/or Friday of Labor day weekend.

Liberal Party day and vacation prime. No college student in America is home to answer the phone on a Thursday or Friday. Young families and childless couples TRAVEL on weekends and especially holiday weekends. Grandma, however, was home...and is voting Bush.

A poll or two next week will reveal if the "bounce" holds.


Edit: Normally short window "snapshot" polling is fine, but never for political polling on either Wednesday (church meetings) or weekends/holiday (travel).

[edit on 6-9-2004 by RANT]

I got polled for the first time yesterday (ooo, ahhh).

I found it interesting that the poll only had 3 choices:
1) Bush
2) Kerry
3) Undecided

The stupidity of some of these automated polls to not include 'other' (Nadar, Badnarik, Jabba the Hut, etc.) as an option should make their results suspect. I only wish I knew who the pollster was!

Not really, but I'm here for a while, so, you know, maybe it's time you tried to adapt and develop a sense of humour.

On a more serious note, the Republican candidate for 2008 will hopefully be someone with enough verbal skills to talk his way out of the intellectual void our current chief of state has dug us into with talk of Nuk-lee-ear war.

This thread should be about if Bush wins, who runs in 08. on the Democratic side, I see Hilary in a landslide with Kerry disappearing like Al Gore. On the Republican, I can see a McCain or Guilani getting the nod.

Originally posted by jrsdls
On the Republican, I can see a McCain or Guilani getting the nod.

I'm telling you guys, short of a revolutionary power shift in the Republican Party, the neocons WILL NOT SUFFER McCain or Guiliani.

The Rovian chickenhawk machine of Ted Sampley is doing everything they can now to make McCain look crazy and link him to Kerry and Guiliani is a gun control New Yorker!!!

They only have value NOW at the RNC to look moderate and appealing (and in Gouls case remind everyone about 9/11). They are not neocon approved for any real power ever.

If not Pataki, the RNC 2008 "winner" will be a virtual unknown they are currently spinning a "legacy" around now in hushed meetings.

A good looking current govenor with little to no military service, weak political background with an insider track in business plus a strong appeal to "family values" is the safe bet. I don't know why people think they get to pick the candidates. The parties and media will have NONE of that.

Rant, now that we know who you think the Republicans will put out, what about the Democrats? Still think Hillary has the most to gain in a Bush victory.

The stupidity of some of these automated polls to not include 'other' (Nadar, Badnarik, Jabba the Hut, etc.) as an option should make their results suspect. I only wish I knew who the pollster was!

Jabba's running??? Jabba for president!!! He'd have Osama's ass in carbonite faster than Han diving for a credit! Or at the very least, dump in the Rancor pit!!!

Hail to cheif Jabba!!!

Originally posted by jrsdls
Rant, now that we know who you think the Republicans will put out, what about the Democrats? Still think Hillary has the most to gain in a Bush victory.

I know Republicans do. I don't know. I'd seriously be suprised if she ran unless it was as VP once a Presidential candidate gets the nod.

If Kerry loses, it's really a toss up. The challengers will either be 10 deep and a mess (including Edwards) or singular and unifed. The only way Hillary would enter the fray then is if nobody else inspiring does (except the usual clap trap like Sharpton).

I've got to tell you if Kerry loses this election the Dems won't be running to Hillary to run 2008 (no matter what Republicans think), though we will be drafting a Clinton for the race.

Originally posted by Carseller4
Bush will win in a landslide, so let's look ahead to 2008!


My guess...Guliani/Jeb Bush vs Hillary/Ubama

With Guliani being a moderate they are gonna have to balance the ticket, McCain cannot do that. With Bush they take Florida and with Guliani they take New York.

I know 100% that Hillary will run...that is why Kerry has no chance in this election. Ubama just seems like an up and comer, that is why I picked him.

God I hope not!!!