Ron Paul looks to be headed for the win WOW

reply to post by PhoenixDown


I think most liberals can overlook Paul's stance on social issues and his religious convictions. Even his libertarian convictions that sometimes lead to his awkward stance towards civil rights issues is not a big deal, those are things that can be accepted by them.

Paul's big plus is, he's the ONLY candidate able to reign back the out-of-control Federal Reserve and the Big Banks. The Democrats and especially the Republicans are in too deep and too unwilling to make sacrifices to effect any changes.

In a general election against Obama = Paul by a landslide.
(assuming the GOP doesn't cheat in the primaries and swindle Paul out of the nomination)

I really don't get where people think Ron Paul is improving. He is dumping a lot of money and energy into Iowa...but that's it.

This graph tells the whole story:
www.realclearpolitics.com...


A single poll won't tell you much...but a series of polls can show you a trend. Ron Pauls trend is that he is completely flat. He has a block of very very dedicated supporters...but they aren't increasing....and they aren't a large percentage.

The only other candidat that is flatter than Paul is Huntsman. Being flat in polling is not a good sign...it means that no one is paying attention to you. It means you have your base, your base that will never abandon you (and for Paul that is between 6-8%)...and that's it.

Every candidate has their base of supporters that will never abandon them...but then there is the block of voters that sway back and forth...and it sucks that this is the group that decides the elections because they are in general the dumbest and least informed people. At this point, if you don't know who you support....you don't know what you support. And the bad news for Ron Paul is that this group of voters rely on the media to tell them who is saying "good" things and who isn't. And the things Ron Paul says...in the eyes of the media...are crazy and extreme.

Right now, Gingrich has this block of voters in his corner. They may stay there...they may not. But if Gingrich falls, the big question is where do those voters go. You guys are assuming Paul because he hasn't recieved a bump yet. But look at the graph...Romney was leading from the beginning. Bachman and Perry rose, Romney fell, Bachman fell and Perry rose more. Perry tanked and Romney rose along with Cain, Bachman continued to fall. Cain and Romney started to fall and Gingrich rose. In all of this...Paul stayed flat...which means that this block of voters that are bouncing all around are not paying attention to him....at all. Despite claims, Ron Paul is ALL over the media...he just isn't winning anyone over. So if Gingrich falls...where do these voters go? IMO, voters are more likely to go back to Romney, who is more similar to Gingrich than Paul is.

It's a game of similarities...Ron Paul is not similar to Bachman, Perry, Cain, or Gingrich.....but Romney is. It's just that this group of voters would rather not vote for Romney...but they will if they have to.


I'm still not seeing it happen for Ron Paul...he is flat..and the primaries are coming up fast.

Oh come on...surely some Ron Paul supporter can dispute my post...right???

How do you expect Ron Paul to win while his polling has been flat and under 10% the entire campaign? Where is the path to the nomination?

I could get into individual state polling...but that is even worse for Ron Paul at the moment. I see people here all the time that Ron Paul is FOR SURE going to win...so please explain to me how that is going to happen.

S&F - Thanks for sharing the article.

The last line is what really resonated with me...

emphasis mine

Just think, Ron Paul ’12 thanks to weak candidates like Newtand Romney, no Paulbots required.

reply to post by freakjive


I like that the author uses lines like that in alot of his articles very wittywitty

reply to post by OutKast Searcher

Real Clear Politics should know that past performance doesn't reflect on future performance.
Even true statistics don't mean squat

Wow. What a coincidence. Real Clear Sports! Who would have thought....?

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Well if you have noticed the person in the lead of the polls does not stay on top long they keep switching. If you read the article the author explains his logic as to why he thinks Paul will be the front runner when it counts. It really is a good read.

Current graph from RCP indicates that Paul and Romney are both rising and are essentially neck to neck. Green Grinch is still in the lead, but his lead spread is not changing much. He is one gaffe away from losing that lead and giving the lead back to either Paul or Romney. Even Fox News gave a serious interview to Paul without so much as a smirk or sideways insult.