Seismic fault beneath US is ‘fully loaded’ after 311 years

reply to post by westcoast


I just want to point out that "Vancouver quake", was on the other side of Vancouver island, so we never felt it in Vancouver proper. thats a couple hundred miles away

for us to feel them they have to be shallow and under land it seems

also I just want to add it's been a decade since the last "normal" earthquake, which means we are in for 2 different earthquake episodes in the near future.

a subduction zone event, and then the normal shallow 7.2's which can be far more destructive as they can happen within the city limits or just outside.

I'm sure I'll be called a new-age flake, but here goes. I believe the state of humans, their emotions, their reactions to themselves and the world at large, have a lot to do with the climate and how IT behaves. Thus earthquakes are connected to people en-masse in any given location. Energy needs to be moved. It can move consciously in people themselves, or if held underground for too long, will result in an earthquake.

reply to post by Olivine


Thanks for that informative post, and helping to bring more info into the thread that can lend additional perspective to Cascadia. You will go far here, as ATS for the most part rewards contributions to threads that do this. We need more of that collaborative spirit, and less combative spirit. The benefit is better perspective on the subject, which is a benefit to all.

The reason of course I thought this article was worthy of attention is the phrase this seismologist has used, "fully loaded." I can't quite recall any other scientist use that phrase in conjunction with Cascadia.

But obviously as other posters have pointed out, there seems to be a disconnect somewhere. How can the fault be fully loaded, if the interim period between events is more on the order of 500 years, and it's only been 311? Yes peoples, I get the point.

So somehow we must try and qualify what he is meaning by this. I think what he is saying is "the fault has accumulated enough stress after 311 years to be an actionable, noteworthy threat from here forward."

I hope that will satisfy the fear police, skeptics, and people who didn't see the pics or videos from Japan.

I have a question ... lets say a big one where to happen inland would it trigger volcanos in the area and do you think it would have awaken yellowstone ? Hypothetically

Originally posted by leawyoming
I have a question ... lets say a big one where to happen inland would it trigger volcanos in the area...

It could, but history suggests the probability is very low. Of biggest concern would probably be the Long Valley Caldera, which has shown signs of unrest. But so far only one volcano I know of in Bolivia has shown any evidence of responding to distant strong quakes.

...and do you think it would have awaken yellowstone ? Hypothetically

Well Yellowstone has already endured some pretty big events, and so far so good. They don't seem to have affected the park much if at all. So in general it seems very stable when subjected to outside quake forces. And considering that there have been these great events already on the Cascadia, with no signs of Yellowstone erupting, the answer is likely going to be "I wouldn't worry about it too much, as evidence suggests there is no reason to be concerned about a triggered event at Yellowstone."

I must include the standard disclaimer though: no one knows for sure.

that quake that hit the dc area not too long ago, was felt all the way here in the detroit metro area....shook the house for a few seconds...i thought i was imagining things, til i look at the ceiling fan...which was off...and i watched it sway back and forth a little bit....kinda spooky

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Oh. Also, in regards to Tacoma area and sea inlets:

Very, very bad to be anywhere near inlets, coves, harbors, bays, and anything of the sort. These types of geologic features will concentrate the waves, making them even bigger. Cause the water has no place to go but up. We saw several cases of this in Japan. If it was really bad, starting with a 100 ft wave, places like that could see 150 ft or more.

One more item that most people never consider...

How many tons of concrete, steel, and other materials have we planted firmly on top of these zones that may exist under land?

This added weight does nothing but delay the fault moving, building additional stress that when it eventually breaks will be even more catastrophic than before.

The New Madrid fault zone is a prime example of this, one that in all likelihood will produce a quake that will wipe out most of the midwest, not to mention the effects for hundreds of miles around the zones.

TA, you keep right on reminding everyone, I know that this Friday, I'm buying more MRE's and bulk food.

The oil spill is a major part of engineering this earth quake, so as it will be one of the biggest Earthquakes in the history of Planet Earth

Originally posted by matadoor
TA, you keep right on reminding everyone, I know that this Friday, I'm buying more MRE's and bulk food.

As I said earlier, there's no reason to go all tinfoil hat survivalist.

People need to be prepared, but also realistic. A quake large enough to disrupt basic infrastructure (underground pipes, power, roads) means you've got two or three days at home in the dark while that gets sorted out.

A quake large enough to give you more than three days without trucks getting through very likely means that your MRE's and bulk food stockpile are buried under rubble or on their way to Yokohama.

Keep enough supplies on hand for a blizzard or ice storm, which is altogether more likely in the short term. If you really want to spend your money on preparing for the worst case scenario, talk to an architect about making upgrades to your home.

Originally posted by vox2442

Originally posted by matadoor
TA, you keep right on reminding everyone, I know that this Friday, I'm buying more MRE's and bulk food.

As I said earlier, there's no reason to go all tinfoil hat survivalist.

People need to be prepared, but also realistic. A quake large enough to disrupt basic infrastructure (underground pipes, power, roads) means you've got two or three days at home in the dark while that gets sorted out.

A quake large enough to give you more than three days without trucks getting through very likely means that your MRE's and bulk food stockpile are buried under rubble or on their way to Yokohama.

Keep enough supplies on hand for a blizzard or ice storm, which is altogether more likely in the short term. If you really want to spend your money on preparing for the worst case scenario, talk to an architect about making upgrades to your home.

VOX, do whatever you want, but trust me, we will be defending our stash with all of the power and force that we can.. My home is already prepared for what can be described around here as worst case. You do whatever you wish.

I am a self professed precognitionist and for a long time my intuition [which is never wrong] has been telling me again and again that the west coast of the USA and Canada is going to get a really gigantic earthquake and a devastating volcanic eruption from a thought to be extinct or at least thought to be dormant volcano in the region of Seattle. In my intuition I am told that Seattle is going to be levelled to the ground. Literally the biblical words spoken by Jesus "Not one stone will be left standing upon another" are ringing in my ears. So when I saw your thread I am at least pleased that I am not alone in my intuitions. It would appear from what you're saying that science is also predicting that there is going to be a big quake in that area. But you make no mention as regard to the possibility of volcanic eruptions.

AVE RAEGINA CAELINA LA DEUS NOSTRA CAELI LA VERA DEUS

Originally posted by matadoor

VOX, do whatever you want, but trust me, we will be defending our stash with all of the power and force that we can..

My home is already prepared for what can be described around here as worst case. You do whatever you wish.

Meh.

To each their own, I guess. Best of luck with that.

I am aware of the Big One coming and consider it to be any minute to up to 700 years from now.


The risk of tsunami to the mainland is low, the western side of Vancouver island, pacific coastline is at higher risk.

Areas of soil liquification are a hazard, like in Richmond

I believe it was 1964 that Anchorage had their earthquake. Driving from Anchorage to Wasilla on the highway you can see areas of the coastline where in the ocean, are dead tree stumps, just the tops of trees, pines and such. The whole area sunk about 35 feet and it goes for tens of miles, all along the coast. Just a reminder of what could befall any of these Blue zones in the Youtube video.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
But obviously as other posters have pointed out, there seems to be a disconnect somewhere. How can the fault be fully loaded, if the interim period between events is more on the order of 500 years, and it's only been 311? Yes peoples, I get the point.

So somehow we must try and qualify what he is meaning by this. I think what he is saying is "the fault has accumulated enough stress after 311 years to be an actionable, noteworthy threat from here forward."

Thanks for the reasonable explanation and good clarification.

I was kind of thinking you might be a fear monger but after reading that explanation which I agree with, perhaps I was mistaken. That's actually a good assessment of the situation, so thanks for that clarification!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

 

But obviously as other posters have pointed out, there seems to be a disconnect somewhere. How can the fault be fully loaded, if the interim period between events is more on the order of 500 years, and it's only been 311? Yes peoples, I get the point.

So somehow we must try and qualify what he is meaning by this. I think what he is saying is "the fault has accumulated enough stress after 311 years to be an actionable, noteworthy threat from here forward."

I believe the reason for confusion concerning recurrance cycles is that until recently, we only had evidence for 6, magnitude 9+ megathrust quakes on the Cascadia during the past 3000 years. Giving an average of one every 500 years.

Recently, Chris Goldfinger of OSU, and others, have documented 20, mag 9+ quakes (ruptures of the entire fault), and an additional 18, mag 8-8.5 earthquakes (partial ruptures of the southern portion only) during the past 10,000 years.
Full article found here
From the above article:

And, Witter says, instead of thinking giant quakes occur every 500 years, Goldfinger's work puts the cycle at 300 to 350 years.

I'd just like to emphasize, earthquakes don't happen on regularly scheduled intervals--these are just averages.

On a side note, your very welcome TA--that's how I try to roll

Nov. 29, 2011

$2M grant could make early earthquake warning a reality in the Northwest

By Vince Stricherz

News and Information

www.washington.edu/news/articles/2m-grant-could-make-early-earthquake-warning-a-reality-in-the-northwest

When a magnitude 9 earthquake devastated Japan in March some residents got a warning, ranging from a few seconds to a minute or more, that severe shaking was on the way.

Now, with a $2 million grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation to the University of Washington, a similar warning system could be operational in the Pacific Northwest in as little as three years.

One-quarter of the grant money will go to placing 24 sensors that combine strong-motion detection and GPS readings along the coast to record the first signals from a major earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, which is just off the Pacific Coast from northern California to southern British Columbia.

“The main point is to spot a big earthquake at the time it starts. The main motivation for these stations is Puget Sound,” said John Vidale, a UW professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network based at UW.

The cities of Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, B.C., also would benefit from the system, but they are not believed to be as vulnerable as Seattle and the surrounding area, which is closer to the subduction zone. In addition, much of Seattle is built on a softer basin more susceptible to shaking in a huge quake.

(...)

USGS

Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Awards $6 million for Research Leading to West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System
Released: 11/29/2011 12:00:00 PM

www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3041

reply to post by Olivine


You know I had read that article already, but just forgot about it. I knew in my mind though that I had remembered more of a 300 year interval for Cascadia after the LATEST research shown there. Heck that article is posted somewhere on ATS. So the disconnect happened to me. More stars for you buddy.

300 to 350 years IS "fully loaded" with the new finds. So yes, my explanation not withstanding, because it's true, his characterization as fully loaded holds. So sorry to the guys taking the 600 year way out. More info came in and it has been updated to every 300 to 350 years.

But one thing sounds for sure: the place has BIG quakes. 8+ minimum when it goes. And a tendency to rupture along the entire fault, too, (9+) for more than half of the ones discovered. Fear or no fear, another one is coming. Soon.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
300 to 350 years IS "fully loaded" with the new finds. So yes, my explanation not withstanding, because it's true, his characterization as fully loaded holds.

If it was fully loaded, wouldn't the chance of an earthquake in the next 50 years be higher than this?

www.oregonlive.com...

Witter says scientists are now in wide agreement that there's a 10 to 14 percent chance a powerful earthquake and tsunami will strike the Oregon coast in the next 50 years.

It's not even a 25% chance.

Also look carefully at the data presented. It may only suggest that quakes were more frequent more than 3000 years ago. In other words, the total 10000 year average may be 300 years but the article doesn't really dispute that the average over the last 3000 years is every 500 years.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


Well what if the average over the last million years is only 200 years between massive quakes, and we just happen to be in one of the long periods, with that sukka about to hit any day now?

No one knows for sure, and some claim it is as high as 30% chance in the next 50. Take away typical scientist stuffy conservatism, and we can call that 50%.