It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
The easiest way we can demonstrate that atmospheric CO2 is NOT the cause of ANY discernible warming is the fact that most of the warming has been occurring FAR AWAY from sources of anthropogenic CO2... Even NASA had to admit this fact...
Current warmth seems to be occurring nearly everywhere at the same time and is largest at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the last 50 years, the largest annual and seasonal warmings have occurred in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula. Most ocean areas have warmed. Because these areas are remote and far away from major cities, it is clear to climatologists that the warming is not due to the influence of pollution from urban areas.
www.nasa.gov...
Thanks for coming out and admitting you're flat-out trolling
First off - ever consider the fact that a process can still be calibrated against a known? See sir, in science this is called a "control", and it's pretty much a staple in any proper analytical experiment! Do I get a cookie now?
And there are plenty of reasons why Beck's does NOT:
Here's another thing I knows about science: when your method can make predictions that are matched, especially against other independent lines of evidence - it makes that method look good.
So on top of that, ice cores also correlate well with each other, and with concurrent observations. Etheridge et al (1996) proved how robust they are by showing that the same amount of CO2 exists in the firn as it does in the ice where air bubbles become trapped. They demonstrated that ice core concentrations overlapped with actual atmospheric ones by 20 years, within an uncertainty of 1.2ppm. Kinda puts the whole thing to bed, really.
But ultimately all this comes down to. . .
Originally posted by mbkennel
Originally posted by Bob Sholtz
a little problem for you: how can you say there is nothing wrong with the emails when one of them says that the sun could account for ALL changes?
Because it doesn't say that, and far more importantly, actual scientific studies by many people which have looked at this very issue in deep quantitative detail for a long, long time make it clear that recent warming cannot be explained by changes in solar irradiance. Both have been measured with sufficient precision over decades.++
Remember, global warming from greenhouse effect is a physics problem.
There is a specific physical causal mechanism which has been validated for decades. That is, of course there is a natural greenhouse effect from CO2 and other atmospheric components which is essential to explain even the pre-industrial temperature of the Earth. This is incontrovertible fact. Now, if you increase the number of such molecules you will get more of it, this is incontrovertible consequence of the laws of physics. The number of such molecules has increased, this is incontrovertible experimental fact. Furthermore other physical consequences of this fact, such as increased IR flux and decreased stratospheric temperatures have also been observed. It is therefore an incontrovertible fact that human activity has changed the climate, and increased greenhouse gases from human activities will change the climate more.
So, even if the Sun were doing something funky, which it is not, the effect from human changes to the atmosphere will still continue to contribute. The laws of physics never take a day, or even a microsecond, off.
( Note that even if the Sun's output were to decrease exactly (contrary to observations) to make the global average temperature stay the same when added to the increased greenhouse effect, there would still be substantial climate change, because the pattern of energy is different (Sun's effect is relatively larger in daytime and in tropical latitudes, greenhouse effect more at night and polar latitudes). This applies to geoengineering proposals---blocking summer Sun in the tropics from aerosols is not counteracting greenhouse warming cleanly)
Polar amplification works both ways Posted on December 16, 2011 by Anthony Watts Guest post by David Archibald
When I started out in climate science in 2005, the prevailing view in the sceptic community was that carbon dioxide-caused global warming was real but it wouldn’t be anything as bad as it was painted by the AGW crowd. Sceptics generally thought that climate was a random walk and at that stage we hadn’t quantified the carbon dioxide heating effect. Roy Spencer’s paper finding negative feedbacks from warming was at that stage two years off. At the time, I thought that climate was controlled by the Sun and set out to find the relationship. The relationship had been found by Friis-Christensen and Lassen in 1991, and I extended their work to use solar cycle length as a predictive tool.
Now has come the first paper from Northern Hemisphere scientists to use solar cycle length to predict climate. Three Norwegian researchers, led by Professor Jan-Erik Solheim of the Institute of Theoretical Physics of the University of Oslo, have just published a paper entitled “Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures”. It is available at: arxiv.org...
What these eminent scientists are predicting is significant: “We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–‐20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C.” A 6°C temperature decrease in under ten years from the present day! This is significant at two levels. Firstly, it is going to get really cold very soon.
This predicted cooling is calculated to have a 95% confidence level. Secondly, it gives the sceptic community a climate forecast that is based on physical evidence, with a statistician signing off. When the predictions of these three wise Norwegian are borne out, that is going to be a big thing.
I wondered why the ClimateGate II e-mails are so much different from the ClimateGate I e-mails that they have triggered this crackdown and the answer is evident when we take a closer look at an e-mail with the number 5310 I found as a posting at Musings from the Chiefio.
The ClimateGate I e-mails were limited to communication between scientists. This time the e-mails contain the names of political leaders, government departments, institutions and... a potentially explosive content. A Freedom of Information request produced some interesting results. to see a message thread involving government people and people from the University of East Anglia strategizing on how best to present things to the public, go here.
The thread shows that the British government was colluding with scientists . Be sure to note the e-mail addresses. So, now the long knives are coming out. The leftists, the ruling class, the environmentalists pinned all of their hopes on Global Warming, and these leaked e-mails are finishing it.
We are now seeing acts of desperation. Keep an eye on this, folks; this situation could explode! Timothy Birdnow is a St. Louis based writer. He blogs at www.tbirdnow.mee.nu. Read more: www.americanthinker.com...
Originally posted by Aim64C
Taking the alleged increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere - how much additional IR energy is being absorbed each year?
This is an angle I rarely see taken by either side of this debate - and one that seems like a very logical point of interest, to me. The theory is that this gas induces more heat from solar radiation... and a measurable increase in it should be able to be extrapolated as units of power that must be sunk, diffused, or vented.
But - that gets more into climate modeling than the validity of the AGW standpoint.
Originally posted by Aim64C
I suppose you wouldn't care to explain to the audience how it is that one establishes a control in a world of unknowns. How do you establish a control group with odorless, color-less gasses that diffuse?
Originally posted by Bob Sholtz
reply to post by mc_squared
that's the one. mid 20th century is around 1950. the sun is quite powerful, and co2 emissions cannot compare.
remember in the 70's when there was a huge ice age scare?
same kind of thing. the climate cycles about, and i'm more inclined to believe it has more to do with the sun and the specific region of space we're moving through at the moment. relatively speaking, of course. "moment" is more around a century.
reply to post by mbkennel
Of course if the Sun reduces its output then it will be cooler than it would be otherwise, but yet that still does nothing about the greenhouse effect. All laws of physics stay working all the time.
Originally posted by JohhnyBGood
Ooh - that sounds very definitive doesn't it!, except the AGW case doesn't rest on the 'laws of physics' does it!.
Please, don't insult me with the vocabulary of a simpleton.
We've already discussed this. Or, rather, I've already discussed this with myself on your behalf.
Originally posted by jdub297
Wouldn't a full, frank and complete response to the first FOI request render all others superfluous?
At that time, I was surprised by the promptness of the response and the extra effort that Jones had put into the response. (I think that I noted Jones’ courtesy as a correspondent from time to time in the first years of the blog.)
Many of us in the paleo field get requests from skeptics (mainly a guy called Steve McIntyre in Canada) asking us for series. Mike and I are not sending anything, partly because we don't have some of the series he wants, also partly as we've got the data through contacts like you, but mostly because he'll distort and misuse them.
Originally posted by mc_squared
Originally posted by JohhnyBGood
Ooh - that sounds very definitive doesn't it!, except the AGW case doesn't rest on the 'laws of physics' does it!.
That's exactly what the AGW case rests on.
That's why the case was made over a hundred years ago by a bunch of chemists, physicists and mathematicians - before there was any emails, hockey sticks or carbon credits...
You can rap all you want about the politics and the economics and the yaddi yadda - but for crying out loud if you're going to bitch about the science at least get yourself educated enough to not make extremely ignorant statements like "AGW isn't based on physics"... Yeesh.
Take all the greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and keep the Earth’s albedo magically the same as today’s. How much cooler would it be? All are agreed that it would be around 33 Celsius degrees cooler. This is climate theory 101. So, how much radiative forcing causes the 33 C° warming that arises from the presence – as opposed to total absence – of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?
The answer – again straight out of the usual suspects’ playbook – is around 100 Watts per square meter. Accordingly, the equilibrium system climate sensitivity parameter is 33/100 = 0.33 Celsius per Watt per square meter, after just about all temperature feedbacks have acted.
Multiply this key parameter by 3.7 Watts per square meter, which is the IPCC’s own value for the radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 concentration, and you get a warming of just 1.2 C° per CO2 doubling. But that is just one-third of the 3.3 C° the IPCC predicts. This theoretical value of 1.2 C° is remarkably robust: it uses the IPCC’s own data and methods, applied to the entire history of the atmosphere, to demonstrate just how low climate sensitivity really is.
When I pointed out this simple but powerful result to scientists recently at the Santa Fe climate conference organized by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of them said, “Ah, yes, but what evidence do you have that today’s climate exhibits the same sensitivity as the total system sensitivity?” The answer is that the world is now in a position to verify this theoretical result by measurement. In August this year, Dr. Blasing of the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center in the United States quietly published a bombshell.
Few noticed. His detailed estimate is that all the manmade greenhouse gases added to the air by us since 1750 have caused as much as 3 Watts per square meter of radiative forcing between them. From this 3 Watts per square meter, in line with IPCC data, we must be fair and deduct 1 Watt per square meter to allow for manmade climate influences that cause cooling, such as soot and other particulates that act as helpful little parasols shading us from the Sun and keeping us cooler than we should otherwise be.
How much warming did this manmade net 2 Watts per square meter of forcing cause? Around 0.8 Celsius of warming has occurred since 1750, of which – if the IPCC is right – 50-100% was attributable to us. So the equilibrium climate sensitivity parameter since 1750 (again, most of the temperature feedbacks that the IPCC wrongly imagines will amplify warming hugely will have acted by now) is 0.2-0.4 Celsius per Watt per square meter. Multiply that key parameter by 3.7 and the warming we can expect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is just 0.75-1.5 Celsius.
Those estimates neatly bracket the equilibrium system sensitivity of 1.2 C° that we calculated earlier by well-established theory. So the sensitivity of the climate over the most recent quarter of the millennium is very much the same as the sensitivity of the climate throughout the past 4.5 billion years – at around one-third of the IPCC’s central estimate. Frankly, one Celsius degree of warming this century will simply not be worth worrying about. It will do far more good than harm. Not a cent should be spent trying to prevent it.
you sound very sensible, which is rare...most discussions with people are more like two fans who like rival football teams. they can't tell you why they support their team, but they'll defend them against common sense to the death.
that bit from nasa goes above and beyond the email from the cru. in the cru email, the man is saying that GHG's are "important" but that all of the climate change could just as easily be attributed to the sun if they took it into account more in their models.
it seems to me that by weighting the solar irradiance more strongly in the models, then much of the 19th to mid 20th century warming can be explained from the sun alone.
up until about 1950
Originally posted by mc_squared
reply to post by JohhnyBGood
How can I misrepresent what you say when I directly quoted exactly what you said lol?
Ooh - that sounds very definitive doesn't it!, except the AGW case doesn't rest on the 'laws of physics' does it!. Instead it rests on the very small warming effect caused by man made CO2, being amplified by presumed and unverified, totally positive feedback mechanisms to create a runaway effect.
You can rap all you want about the politics and the economics and the yaddi yadda - but for crying out loud if you're going to bitch about the science at least get yourself educated enough to not make extremely ignorant statements like "AGW isn't based on physics"... Yeesh.
Originally posted by Bob Sholtz
reply to post by NoHierarchy
and you know what they found?? ZERO WRONGDOING.
so that quote about "don't let the dirty laundry air" is just casual banter, and telling people to hide behind FOIA requests is science as usual? what about the emails that talk of altering past temperature data to make it look like it's warmer now, or the ones admitting there is huge political pressure?
i can read the emails for myself, thanks. their intentions are clear.
i can see you'll support AGW no matter what. i could care less which side is right, i have no stake in it, but i believe the earth goes through cycles all the time.
a little problem for you: how can you say there is nothing wrong with the emails when one of them says that the sun could account for ALL changes? it's a bit like the "this statement is false" logical paradox. for you to say there is nothing wrong with them, then you're accepting that email is correct, thereby disproving AGW.
would you provide a link to the "three independent reviews" please? i'd like to review them if they exist.
Originally posted by jdub297
reply to post by NoHierarchy
Are you SERIOUSLY going to call the scientific community CORRUPT and completely IGNORE the fossil fuel industry, the politicians, and the media who TOW THE LINE of AGW denial because they're controlled by large corporations (i.e. fossil fuel industries)??
People like you are a real piece of work ("work" substituted for a far more appropriate and simultaneously inappropriate word). Like all right-wingers, you FLIP accusations laid upon you, ones that fit YOU and your ilk better, and lay them on your opponents. If your opponents have called you corrupt and beholden to money, you flip it and accuse scientists of the same thing. I can't believe the nerve, lies, and stupidity with which you conduct discussion/debate, you seriously need to be stopped (along with bastions of propaganda like Fox News).
First, who the hell are you to demand that anyone prove anything to you? You are already committed to an agenda that contradicts common sense, the scientific method and obsevervable facts.
Second, one of the first principles I learned in school was that, "if you have the facts, argue the facts;" "if you have the law, argue the law;" and, if you do not have the law or the facts, "shoot the messenger."
In this light, I find it very enlightening that instead of showing how Pachauri, Jones, Mann, et al, were correct in their misrepresentations and exaggerations, the AGW believers and prophets revert to ad hominem and ridicule of the source.
If AGW had any legitimate scientific legs to stand on, it would invite skepticism, to emphasize the "falsifiablilty" of any one or all of itrs base theories.
Instead, any challenge to the "conventioanl wisdom" is treated with derision.
This is not "science," it is gospel, dogma and doctrine.
jw
Originally posted by JohhnyBGood
reply to post by NoHierarchy
For the first time, the numbers from government documents have been compiled in one place. It’s time to start talking of “Monopolistic Science”. It’s time to expose the lie that those who claim “to save the planet” are the underdogs. And it’s time to get serious about auditing science, especially when it comes to pronouncements that are used to justify giant government programs and massive movements of money.
Who audits the IPCC? The Summary
The US government has provided over $79 billion since 1989 on policies related to climate change, including science and technology research, foreign aid, and tax breaks. Despite the billions: “audits” of the science are left to unpaid volunteers. A dedicated but largely uncoordinated grassroots movement of scientists has sprung up around the globe to test the integrity of the theory and compete with a well funded highly organized climate monopoly. They have exposed major errors.
Carbon trading worldwide reached $126 billion in 2008. Banks are calling for more carbon-trading. And experts are predicting the carbon market will reach $2 – $10 trillion making carbon the largest single commodity traded. Meanwhile in a distracting sideshow, Exxon-Mobil Corp is repeatedly attacked for paying a grand total of $23 million to skeptics—less than a thousandth of what the US government has put in, and less than one five-thousandth of the value of carbon trading in just the single year of 2008.
The large expenditure in search of a connection between carbon and climate creates enormous momentum and a powerful set of vested interests. By pouring so much money into one theory, have we inadvertently created a self-fulfilling prophesy instead of an unbiased investigation? Read the Full Report at the Science and Public Policy Institute.
joannenova.com.au...
As I have already detailed in previous posts the funding is entirely lopsided towards the warmist side by orders of magnitude even from the 'evil oil industry' - despite the warmists using any slight oil industry connection to declare sceptical scientists 'corrupt'.
This is science being run as a (leftist) political strategy - instead of the self defined moral high ground, there is manufactured 'scientific consensus'
Instead of stranglehold on academia there is a stranglehold on the peer review process' - and of course the entire educational establishment turned into a propaganda machine.
As usual, the leftist dominated media reports uncritically on their agenda, whilst all opposing voices are demonised and shut down.
Science is simply the last of the institutions to fall to the Grammscian 'long march through the institutions'