Originally posted by ignant
so, the thread title scared the Shiite out of me!
anyways can anyone seismogically inclined here on ATS maybe indicate if there is a significantly increased level of activity in the earth. it feels
faint but its definitely there, anyone else feel it. put your ear down to the grown (i tried this on the carpet and then bare floor) and heck, both
are grumbly as heck.
it feels like 'something bad is gonna happen' =(
but then again, i'm an ATS fearmonger so thats just me.
someone, pls clarify whats goin on?
Ok first off.
Chill
Secondly, don't just assume a website or random guys youtube blog claims are always the honest truth. It pays to dig around and see what you can come
up with yourself. For example, a link to a
graph was posted on a recent
thread, showing a seemingly ever increasing trend of earthquakes each year during the
last century. Seems pretty serious
Then some 'stats' are presented showing damning evidence of increasing
large magnitude quakes also.
Or so it seemed...
Source of the graph.
this trend needs to be understood in relation to the increase in seismographs. Certainly, in the last 25 years, more lower intensity earthquakes
have been noticed because of a general increase in the number of seismograph stations across the world and improved global communications. This
increase has helped seismological centres to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier decades.
This explains why we see an upward trend in records of quakes of
all magnitudes, as we can detect quakes better than ever before. Yet large
quakes have better records since they are more likely to get detected. Here's what the site says about the record of 7.0+ magnitude quakes. The
formatting isn't great, but I've bolded the presented number of earthquakes for each period.
DATES FROM & TO PERIOD NO. EARTHQUAKES (Mag. > 6.99)
--------------------------- ----------- ------------------------------
1863 to 1900 incl 38 yrs 12
1901 to 1938 incl 38 yrs 53 Reference list 1901
to 1938
1939 to 1976 incl 38 yrs 71 Reference list 1939
to 1976
1977 to 2014 incl * 38 yrs 164 (to Mar. 2011) predict >190 in total. Reference list 1977 to
date
For the most recent period (1977-2014) they list
this and wikipedia as a
source. They neglect to mention sources for the other periods. The source link states that the list consists of "Selected earthquakes of general
historic interest. ". These are
selected quakes of
historical importance, not actual statistics of earthquakes.
Now if you take a look at
this database, which is one that USGS references for
quakes before 1973, you can search for
actual statistics of quakes, and the numbers are vastly different
Period_____No of quakes greater than 7.0_________________
1901-1938: 378
1939-1976: 372
1977-2014: 300
As you can see, this is far different to the values presented on the site. You may also note that there is no increasing trend of large (7+)
earthquakes at these time intervals with this data. In fact, if anything there is a
slight downward trend in large quakes if you follow the
trend. Between 1901 and 1976 there were an average of 9.87 large quakes per year. With a constant trend, by 2011 there should have been 335 quakes,
yet there is currently only 300 recorded on this database.
There are earthquakes every year, every month, every day. Small ones are actually quite common and are generally nothing to be concerned about. A
lot of them won't even be felt.
In saying that, the danger of our planet is ever present, and we shan't take it for granted. It pays to always be aware of the risks, whilst
remaining vigilant. I try not to get too worried about whether something bad could happen, and focus on what good can happen
But much like the recent YU55 carry on, I wouldn't worry too much about a title. Take a look inside and see what you think of the content before
freaking out. Knowledge is power.
edit on 13/11/11 by Curious and Concerned because: format