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But out of due diligence, Holland began examining the suite of almost 50 seismic events that followed the 2.8-magnitude quake. The majority of the microquakes struck within 3.5 kilometers of the fracturing well, Picket Unit B 4-18. The quakes were shallow and fit well in time and space with the start of fracturing in the nearby well. The geophysical model fit, too.
"The more and more we looked at it, it looked like it was a correlation," Holland said.
This is not the first time that fracturing has faced a possible link to earthquakes. The first case occurred in Oklahoma in 1978, featuring 70 microquakes in just over six hours, while a decade later, scientists linked fracturing to 90 small events. Both studies suffered from limited data, however, and their connections were far from definite.
With his arm twisted, Holland would still not definitively tie the microquakes to fracturing at the well. It is fiendishly difficult to attribute earthquakes, given existing scientific uncertainties about why and when quakes are triggered. What is clear is that the quakes are not common: As Holland noted, firms have drilled 100,000 fracturing wells in Oklahoma, with three minor seismic events reported.