Why The UK Will Not Defeat Iran...

I’d like to propose my thoughts on why a US/UK/Israel war on Iran will fail. Lets first look at the statistics of military strength as of 2011.

US
Global Rank – 1st
Active Military: 1,477,896
Active Reserve: 1,458,500
Total Land Weapons: 56,269
Total Aircraft: 18,234
Total Navy Ships: 2,384
Purchasing Power: $14,660,000,000,000

UK
Global Rank – 5th
Active Military: 224,500
Active Reserve: 187,130
Total Land Weapons: 11,630
Total Aircraft: 1,663
Total Navy Ships: 99
Purchasing Power: $2,173,000,000,000

Israel
Global Rank – 10th
Active Military: 187,896
Active Reserve: 565,000
Total Land Weapons: 12,552
Total Aircraft: 1,964
Total Navy Ships: 64
Purchasing Power: $219,400,000,000

No we all know that the US could probably defeat any country on Earth on a 1-1, all in, war fest…but that isn’t how war occurs…

The US, along with the UK would NOT commit its entire forces to any war, unless it was WW3. The US and UK could not afford to leave the homeland vulnerable to attack from other enemies, and lets be fair…the US and UK have plenty of them who are just itching to attack.

The fact that a possible invasion may occur into Iran, would imply that a large portion of the US, UK and Israeli military strength would have to be mobilised. Let’s not forget that Iran is not Afghanistan or Iraq, it is a pretty well strengthened country with a fair wealth of Oil and economic links with other countries.

So on that note let’s look at Iran’s Military strength.

Iran
Global Rank – 12th
Active Military: 545,000
Active Reserve: 650,000
Total Land Weapons: 12,393
Total Aircraft: 1,030
Total Navy Ships: 261
Purchasing Power: $818,700,000,000

Now that we have the pleasantries out of the way and we can see how “macho” everyone is, we still need to evaluate what a reasonable figure would be for commitment to the “cause” from the US, UK and Israel. Now I’m not a war planner, nor am I a strategist but I’d hedge my bets that the US and UK wouldn’t commit more than 50% of all military resources to the “cause”, but I would hedge that Israel would commit about 80% of all military resources.

So with that information, let’s add up the numbers again and see where we’re at.

US, UK and Israeli Alliance
Active Military: 1,001,514
Total Land Weapons: 43,990
Total Aircraft: 11,519
Total Navy Ships: 1,292

Now on paper that look pretty uneven. That looks like on a head on collision of forces, the US,UK, Israel alliance would wipe the floor with Iran. But there are 3 important factors that haven’t been included that could change the outcome.

1. Iran’s reserve would be called upon if an invasion were to occur. This would take the total army in Iran (the country being invaded) to 1,195,000, compared to the active personnel from the alliance of 1,001,514. Iran would have over 190,000 men in favour.
2. Iran is the country being invaded, which with it brings a sense of pride and protection from its people. This belief system and determination to defy the occupation would boost the efficacy of its army. The 1,195,000 would soon grow to well beyond that number. (Iran currently has over 1.3 million that are of military age that are not in the military). This army could very well turn into nearly 3million.
3. Let’s not forget what’s at stake for other nations globally if Iran is invaded. Economies will suffer. China and Russia are linked heavily with Iran. I’m not saying they will jump in all guns blazing, but what they may very well do it pile on the pressure for the US, UK and Israel to “get out” of Iran. Why? Because their economy and Oil supply will suffer, so their people will suffer. The longer the US, UK and Israel defy the warnings; the more likely China and Russia will aid The Iranians.

OK so now those 3 points are out of the way, let’s hypothetically look at the possibility of Russia and China sending in a measly 25% of their military resources to help Iran and we’ll compare statistics at the end…

Russia
Global Rank – 2nd
Active Military: 1,200,000
Active Reserve: 754,000
Total Land Weapons: 91,715
Total Aircraft: 2,749
Total Navy Ships: 233
Purchasing Power: $2,223,000,000,000

China
Global Rank – 3rd
Active Military: 2,285,000
Active Reserve: 800,000
Total Land Weapons: 22,795
Total Aircraft: 4,092
Total Navy Ships: 562
Purchasing Power: $2,662,700,000,000

So with that information, let’s add up the numbers again and see where we’re at

Russia, China, Iran Alliance
Active Military: 2,066,250
Total Land Weapons: 41,019
Total Aircraft: 2,740
Total Navy Ships: 459

Now that we have the individual countries that will or could be involved and a reasonably “safe” assumption of any aid provided to the “cause”, we can compare the 2 alliances.

US, UK and Israeli Alliance (UK Alliance)
Active Military: 1,001,514
Total Land Weapons: 43,990
Total Aircraft: 11,519
Total Navy Ships: 1,292

Russia, China, Iran Alliance (Iranian Alliance)
Active Military: 2,066,250
Total Land Weapons: 41,019
Total Aircraft: 2,740
Total Navy Ships: 459

From the above we can deduce the following.

1. If a land invasion occurred, the UK Alliance would be outnumbered by approximately 1,064,736. Even if there were no personnel contributions from China and Russia, the UK Alliance would still be outnumbered by approximately 190,000. (1 Point Iran)
2. The UK alliance would have a total land weapon capability of 43,990 and the Iranian Alliance would have a total land weapons capability of 41,019. (1 Point UK)
3. The UK alliance would have a total aircraft count of 11,519 and the Iranian Alliance would have a total aircraft count of 2,740. (1 Point UK)
4. The UK Alliance would have a total Naval Force of 1,292 and the Iranian Alliance would have a total naval force of 459 (1 Point UK).

Now if we base this solely on figures where the US and UK provide 50% of their total military strength along with Israel providing 80% of their total military strength versus China providing only 25% along with the Russian 25% and the Iranian 100%, the UK Alliance would come out on trumps by 3 Points to 1. However, a war isn’t fought on paper.

Would the US and UK honestly be willing to provide 50% of their total military capability against Iran? I genuinely think not. I doubt they would be willing to suffer any major loses to their capability…if they lost any size-able amount, their world dominance in military power would be in jeopardy against any other enemy. Would Russia and China be prepared to offer 25% of their respective military capabilities? I think this is far more feasible than the proposed 50% of the UK Alliance.

So bearing that in mind, if we reduce the UK Alliance even slightly, (let’s say by 25%) we find the tables turn dramatically. The points on each side would be 2 each…a stale-mate.

How would the US and UK people act when their country is at war…AGAIN…with another middle-eastern country? I believe the pressure mounted from the US and UK people would force the UK and US to question how much they “go-in-all-guns-blazing”.

The US and UK people, along with the rest of the world are waking up to the idea that this whole “Occupy Middle East” movement is bordering on a colonisation by westerners. The people won’t support it as much as the media wants them too. The US and UK could find themselves at war with Iran and their own citizens.

This war will not be won by the US or the UK…this war will be won by the people of Earth, who will win the war for Iran

Right off the bat your premise is contradicted by your points. By including Russian and Chinese help then it isnt "The US and UK versus Iran". Your hypothetic just went out the window.

reply to post by jrmcleod


we give these #ing war happy idiots TRILLIONS of dollars!!!! if those trillions went into education, this world would be a MUCH better place!

Except for the tiny problem of that it won't just be China, Russia, Iran, US, UK, and Israel. Such a war would likely trigger responses from many other countries, on both sides of the issue.

Btw, China's every bit as bad as the U.S. For example, the U.S. does engage in currency manipulation, but at least the U.S. floats its currency. Guess who doesn't? China = commie U.S.

You can probably add Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Syria to the Iranian allegiance to tip the scales even further to the Iranian side. This could be the worst thing to happen to the United States in its short history if it actually goes down. Can't see how this country could afford another war.

reply to post by princeofpeace


Edited the title.

Originally posted by olliemc84
You can probably add Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Syria to the Iranian allegiance to tip the scales even further to the Iranian side. This could be the worst thing to happen to the United States in its short history if it actually goes down. Can't see how this country could afford another war.

We CAN'T afford it. Affordability went out the window when the deficit came in.

Credit Card war..

The last thing anyone should be doing is upsetting this lot.

"and in the last days i shall bring them to land of magedo for the battle of Armageddon" in this corner we have at #1 the week and much hated USA next we have the state of Israel then the UK , UnKnown for who they will stand with ,
In the dark corner wanting all for one Iran, China, N korea, Syria and Pakistan, are you ready to rummmmmmble??? first to strike is..... to be continued

Remember all the 1% are the only people who gain by war, I read somewhere that the people in real power get really rich by having the world in constant war.
I do think we will go to war with Iran but I think they will not call it a war this time around because the public won't stand for another Iraq.

Originally posted by jrmcleod
I’d like to propose my thoughts on why a US/UK/Israel war on Iran will fail. Lets first look at the statistics of military strength as of 2011.

A bit of work put into that but ultimately floored and a classic journalists error.

Showing the military balance is interesting but quite misleading.It doesnt detail specific weapons systems, their relative age and qualities. Its not much use to have twice as many planes for example if your opponent can fly faster, over further ranges, carry much more modern equipment and are more readily maintained. Also logistics and the ability to supply ammunitions, move troops to where they are needed at the time they are needed etc are all as important if not more so than actual numbers.

Morale will also play apart and as has been observed regular soldiers fight better than conscripts. Units trained together fight better than those put together at the last minute and better still if they are trained in the type combat they are facing. Finally the ability to gather and use the most up to date intelligence is vital.

Your not taking into account
if nuclear weapons are used
if RUSSIA AND CHINA are in
and it is WW3

there will be nuclear catastrophe
I grantee it.

The number of soldiers
means nothing in nuclear war.

Originally posted by popsmayhem
Your not taking into account
if nuclear weapons are used
if RUSSIA AND CHINA are in
and it is WW3

there will be nuclear catastrophe
I grantee it.

The number of soldiers
means nothing in nuclear war.

True but if its an invasion, i'd rather be on Iran's side because with or without China or Russia, the US, Uk and Isreal would be out-numbered. Could you imagine the US being invaded? It wouldnt just be the US Military fighting off the invasion...

Iran is a totally different kettle of fish compared to Iraq or Afghanistan!

Personally, i dont think it will turn nuclear. there is just too much to be lost from the 1% perspective for nuclear war!

I'm not in favour of war against any country, a friend of mine was backpacking in Iran during the last US election. He got to know a lot of locals and spent a lot of time in The capital. He said the ordinary people of Iran were great people, and they wanted rid of their regime just as much as the western governments did. infact they wanted John McCaine to be President as they thought a Right Winger like him would bomb Iran for sure. I thought I would mention this as an earlier poster said that if Iran was invaded the people would rise up in defence of the nation and bolster it's armed forces, many possibly would but not, i feel, but not to the extent that was mentioned IMO. I personally think if nations keep talking to each other they can come to an understanding. The Iranian regime has, and continues to sponsor Terrorism, just like every other country that produces arms and wants to sell them, UK, USA France, Germany, Russia, China etc. If World War III happens it won't last long and when World War IV comes along we'll be fighting that with rocks and sticks. I hope all countries can be adults in this and sort it without conflict

Peace

Public opinion will defeat the UK and US.

Any major war over there, especially against Iran and probably Syria too will be sending back 1000's of our troops in bags, this wont be a surgical war it will be bloody and violent!

Originally posted by olliemc84
You can probably add Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Syria to the Iranian allegiance to tip the scales even further to the Iranian side. This could be the worst thing to happen to the United States in its short history if it actually goes down. Can't see how this country could afford another war.

And by the same Breath, you could add Ukraine, Germany, France, Belarus, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and India to the US/UK/Israel alliance. Most of those post USSR countries have a serious grudge and don't ever want to fall back behind that iron curtain.

War is not a simple math equation for you to solve.

There are so many variables.

The ones we don't know we don't know and the ones we know we know, we know don't knows of unknowns and unknown knowns.

Do you have a source for all these statistics?

It might be worth noting that the UK has some of the sneakiest nuclear submarines on the planet and they will already be strategically placed in the event of all out war to out manouvre their opponants.