Solar Storm Impact: Worst Case Scenario

reply to post by allenidaho

reply to post by tovenar


So, are there any opinions out in the mainstream scientific community if this is a threat to take into consideration? Can it go global or large-scale? Is it dependent/predictable or just totally random?

I'd love to hear more even though we really should stay on topic here

Sorry if this is a repeat, but there is a book titled 'One second after' that presents many of the possibilities. Although the author uses a nuclear device in the stratosphere as the culprit, I can't help but wonder if the sun alone could'nt do similar damage? The events in the book take place over the course of one year, and it's a fascinating read. You'll never feel the same the next time the power goes 'out' after you've read it because, it just might not come back 'on'.

reply to post by Raud


I know they have them, I don't know how many and to what extent. I imagine it would be a combination of getting the information and then sending out the town crier or the national gaurd.

reply to post by Raud


There's a government report from DOD I think circa 2009-2010 that I learned about the threat to SCADA and DCS systems. I noticed it because I have experience with oil fields, where a hundred wells may feed into a tank which flows into a pipeline that feeds a refinery, and then a major pipeline that feeds a whole region. There is pretty complete vulnerability at every link in the supply chain. The whole system would have to be re-configured/replaced, at each level, in order to deliver product again. While the effects might be in part of one hemisphere, the impact on the supply chain could be catastrophic.

My impression is that the greatest field flux takes place on the night-side of the earth. The earth's magnetic field would be compressed on the day side, by the solar flare, and elongated on the night-side, "down wind" of the earth. The point of greatest flux would be in the twilight, at the equator, where you'd rotate quickly from compressed to extended or vice versa; but the report said (as I recall) that the magnetic storm of a dangerous magnitude would be global, by definition.

The report I read wasn't as concerned with US nuclear power facilities, since they are controlled partly by gravity, so that in a loss of power the atomic pile is inherently disassembled. I remember the report saying that the biggest problem would be the sudden load loss, with no way of disposing of the megawats produced, with no load within to the plant capable of absorbing all the work. Sort of that what power network wasn't destroyed by the CME, would be by conventional and especially nuke plants remaining operational as the electric grid ceases to exist. My memory is that the feeling was that the only intact part of the grid after such an event, would be the copper wire itself. That everything higher in the hierarchy, would have to be replaced. That means every transformer, every step-down station in a region.

The US is composed of 3 electric grids, and if just one of them was knocked out like this, it could set America back by decades. As I mentioned before, it took Western Canada more than 5 years to recover from the 1989 event, and most of the area was rural (had no grid customers) back then.

Imagine if the East Coast of the US as far as the Mississippi were without power for 5 or 10 years..... there are whole industries that would cease to exist.....

To cite just one example, maize/corn must be stored with less than 15% moisture, or it will rot. In the US and Canada, the corn is harvested at a wide range of moistures above that number, and then dried to below the threshold for mold by natural gas dryers, using electric fans. Most of the world's export harvest would rot in the fields, which means most of the beef and poultry herds would starve, leaving empty shelves in the groceries, and no trucking or rail networks to fill them anyway.

Hell, there was one chapter that just dealt simply with traffic signals, which are controlled increasingly by SCADA signals. Even though cars and trucks would function, just ponder the carnage of no traffic light system in EVERY major metropolis world-wide, even if it were only for 1 to 5 days. The number of fatalities of fatalities and injuries, plus delivery delays of needed replacement parts, plus problems with manufacturing supplies, as well as consumers who just stayed home because the roads were no longer safe.....

Whether or not the CME threat is a valid one, the underlying problem is that we have so leveraged our organizational resources that

1) our society can no longer function without our automated organization

2) the collapse of one organizational unit (air traffic control, for instance) threatens multiple other systems.

3) our repair plans are predicated on the same automated organizational intelligences, i.e. just-in-time inventory

4) even our maintenance plans require a constant tending by complex and interdependent networks of systems.

A collapse occurs when enough systems are effected that it is cheaper to collapse the organizational structures further, than it is to expend energy keeping multiple high-end systems stable, without the inputs they were designed for, and without the large economies and markets of scale they were designed to serve.

For instance, once the centralized refineries quit providing us with gasoline for a month or two, people will begin to leave the cities. At that point, there will be no reason to sail a super-tanker from Venezuela or Dubai to the USA, if the concentrated customer base begins to evolve away from that paradigm. Likewise, there will not be the demand for billions of bushels of corn, once there are two few people buying buckets of fried chicken instead of growing their own. Of course, those changes represent the devolution to a simpler and less specialized lifestyle......

reply to post by Raud


After my huge post I now detect that you were asking about the odds, yes?

There are seasons of solar storms, sunspot cycles with maxima ever 11 and 22 years.

The sun sends out several solar flares a day, but most of them aren't "Pointed" at the earth, and so of no concern.

Looking at the original Carrington Event in the 1850s, and the Canadian event in 1989, it sounds like maybe one every 130 years or so? Or more accurately, a less than 1 pc chance in any given year.

But as always, the question is not "how often are we wrong," but rather "What is the PRICE of being wrong?"....

You are correct. The Carrington Event in 1859 is the biggest solar storm ever recorded. But solar storms had only been recorded starting in 1755. The event occurred during the 10th solar cycle to be recorded.

Since then, there were also storms in 1921, 1960 and 1989 that caused interference. But they were not as strong as the Carrington Event. That's a gap of about 60 years, then 40 years, then 30 years.

Now the 1859 storm caused severe damage to the telegraph system in the US and Europe. It also charged up telegraph equipment that was not plugged in. It also caused an aurora borealis as far south as the Caribbean.

So what does that mean? It means that our entire infrastucture is succeptible. It means your personal electronics are succeptible, plugged in or not.

When could it happen? Any time. Usually with a solar storm, you get about 3-4 days of notice. With something as strong as the Carrington Event, you get about 18 hours before it reaches Earth.

It is impossible to predict when something like this would happen again. But I'd say we are about due.

Originally posted by allenidaho

When could it happen? Any time. Usually with a solar storm, you get about 3-4 days of notice. With something as strong as the Carrington Event, you get about 18 hours before it reaches Earth.

It is impossible to predict when something like this would happen again. But I'd say we are about due.

Careful, you're running aground on the Law of Large Numbersj, also known as the "Gambler's Fallacy."

If the event is random/unpredictable from your viewpoint, then it is no more likely merely because such an event hasn't happened recently.

Sorry, just had to point that out. Now back to our regularly scheduled thread.

Originally posted by Raud
reply to post by pazcat

 

Well, there you go; I stand correced

I would still imagine that things will go out of hand, in terms of civil unrest. At least to begin with.
The sattelite problem will remain however, and obsolete nuclear technology is also a threat to keep in the calculations.

One thing that would happen, that I love with power-outages: silence.
No humming, no buzzing, no nothing. Just pure relief...

I agree totally. went through a two hour black out awhile back....it was heaven compared to this electrical hell we go through everyday. No humming, buzzing nothing and yes it was pure relief until the power came back on..

reply to post by tovenar


What a great reply!
I hope you get applauded for that one.

Other than that, I really don't have much more to add.

steam engines would make a comeback.
population will fall sharply.
eventually we will rebuild.

reply to post by tovenar


I suppose so. It's all we've got to go from. Although, you are right. The amount of time could be vastly different. There is no real way of knowing.