Do you think that a 8.3 earthquake is possible in Greece for next week after Turkey earthquake 7.2?

reply to post by JustMike


I'm sorry, I believe it was I that brought the New Madrid into the discussion, and it's possible that he's simply replying to my question about the seismograph that was posted. I was simply making a comment about the fact that I was concerned with a large earthquake here in the U.S., you can see my comments further up. I still find the relation that Earthquakes have to each other and the possibility of these larger than normal (above 6.5's), having an affect on other fault lines everywhere extremely fascinating.

reply to post by diamondsmith

You have started a thread with that specific magnitude in the title, so as you have made a calculation that gives you such a figure, surely you must have the calculation available to show us? After all, this is a major quake you are talking about and some members who live in that region or have family or friends there might be very concerned.

I'd appreciate it if you could provide more details about the calculation. I'm interested in such methods and I'm sure many others are too.

Thank you for acknowledging the matter of the need to quote your sources and reference them correctly.

Regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike
Sorry I will show you my calculations after but you can try this....www.earth-prints.org...

reply to post by shell69

Hello shell69,

yes, I read your query to the OP and his answer to you. No problem there! I think it was a fair question, and further, there is scientific evidence that larger quakes (at least) can cause others at significant distances. The scientists in this field call it "remote triggering". My own feeling is that in some cases, even raltively small quakes could trigger distant events. I think of it like the "butterfly in Beijing" effect.

What I was puzzled about was why the OP replied to me with info about the New Madrid, when in fact I had responded to his original post about Greece.

However, sometimes matters can get a bit confused when a thread is moving fairly fast. Been there done that got the T-shirt...

Back to Greece and to provide some on-topic input: one of the problems with that region is there are so many faults that are either active (ie they have tremors) or that have been active in the past and could still re-awaken (so to speak) and cause further quakes in the future. Added to this is the further problem that not all faults have necessarily been discovered. The quake near Athens in 1999 that another member mentioned was on a fault that was previously unknown to scientists. When we consider that city has been continuously occupied for thousands of years, it adds a bit of perspective to just how difficult it is for scientists who are researching the region's seismology.

Mike

Mike

Obviously an 8.3 is possible

As is an 8.2 or and 8.4 or even a 6.8. Or a 5.9 or ....... Well, you get the drift?

On the other hand, it's equally possible that no quake above 4.8 will hit Greece in the next 3 years. But that a big one will hit Chile. Or the US. Or Amenia. Or even Indonesia. In fact, they are all perhaps more likely.


So not really sure what the purpose of this thread is?

reply to post by diamondsmith

Oh, that one... Yes, an interesting study, especially as Prof. Barka was involved in it. (Sadly, he died after a car accident a few years ago.) I already have a copy but don't see how that document provides the data you need to arrive at such a precise figure as a Mag 8.3 (Mw). Again, that's not a criticism! I am just being honest.

However, it does show many of the stress relationships and doubtless that would be helpful to you in calculating such an event. I expect those relationships would have to form part of any calculation.

When you have the opportunity, please share you calculation with us; it could provide some new insight and I for one am always glad for any perpsectives that can advance the science of quake study and its potential to forecast when quakes might occur and how powerful they might be.

Mike

There was a thread about dizzy people in New Zealand, and I concluded with an earthquake was going to occur in Turkey. That model panned out with advance-knowledge about the quake one day in advance. I guessed Greece would be next, but I am not feeling the vibe yet. When the next thread with people showing pre-cognitive behavior surfaces, my bets are on Greece. Or, it could be New Zealand's turn? I always mix up the quakes in New Zealand before they happen.

reply to post by JustMike
Use those tools, earthquake.usgs.gov... ,put Van there and you will get something!

reply to post by diamondsmith

I seriously hope you don't think I don't already have links to sites like USGS along with about 300 others that deal with quakes. (Not exaggerating.)

Instead of posting links and telling us to do this or read that, how about just posting the calculation you said you used that allowed you to start a thread to tell us you think it's possible there will be a magnitude 8.3 earthquake for Greece in the next week?

You started the thread, you made the statement highly specific. All I'd like to know is how you got that number. That link will not give that answer. Only you can!

Mike

Nothing really to add except for, do we use the richter scale anymore? I thought it was by the Mercalli scale? Or it was on a doco the other week, or does it chop and change?

reply to post by JustMike
Think what you want,but only after, I will show it,you must understand this is not very easy,so have patience please.....This is ATS...

reply to post by diamondsmith


I really hope this is not going to happen. I'm in Agios Nikolaos, Crete, in an apartment on the 2nd floor of a house that definitely won't withstand an earthquake of this scale.

Ko3

reply to post by kid_of_3NKi


Γειαααααααααα!!! Hey, I'm in Athens in a building that would surely collapse as well... Kinda freaks you out, doesn't it? Especially given the fact that EQs in Turkey seem to come before EQs in Greece... Fingers crossed...

reply to post by bkaust

You're quite right, actually. In most cases, the Richter is not used and has not been used for quite some time. There are several scales but most commonly, when the magnitude of a quake is given by agencies such a USGS, EMSC and similar, they use the "Mw" scale -- moment magnitude. The quake is Turkey was mag 7.2 Mw, not "Richter scale".

The confusion often arises because the mainstream media still use "Richter scale" in their news reports, even when the agency they get their data from is using something else. It's probably because it's just what they've got used to and I expect it's also because they either believe that the majority of people wouldn't know anything different and might get confused (which is pretty true), or else they just don't know they're using the wrong scale (which is also pretty likely in some cases).

The Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is rather different. It uses Roman numerals to indicate how strong the quake feels to people and what effects it's likely to have. This means that for example, a quake that measured as 5.0 Mw could have quite a different figure on the Mercalli scale, depending on how it actually affects people (and buildings etc) in a given region. In some ways, it's like the "shindo" ("shaking" = "quake" or "tremor") scale that is used in Japan by the JMA (Japan Meterorlogical Agency, the authority responsible for monitoring and reporting quakes).

The JMA shindo scale runs from 1 (very weak) up to a maximum of 7 (extremely strong), and when there is a powerful quake that could cause damage, they will give deails of its "shindo" value for regions in the affected area, and these values can vary. Places near the epicenter will normally have a higher shindo than ones further away, but even regional geology plays a part. An area that's built mainly on alluvial deposits will shake differently from ones which have solid rock under them.

They use this scale because in Japan, people want to know what the quake's effects will be where they are, rather than just get a simple number that tells them the energy release value at the quake's epicenter.

Anything in the 5 or bigger range on shindo is quite destructive and warnings are issued, often within seconds of the quake being detected.

Sorry for long reply; hope this helps to explain why there can be some confusion over quake numbers sometimes.

Mike

reply to post by diamondsmith


I'm just thinking that I would love to know how you got that figure of mag 8.3, that's all. And yes, this is ATS. If you make such statements and you say it's based upon your calculation, it's fair enough that we ask you to provide the data. On ATS, that's what we usually do.

Even your estimate of the percentage likelihood of this mag 8.3 event in the given time period would be useful.

But okay, I'll be patient.

Mike

I think it is possible but...

I am thinking like Mike. Why in the world do you not ask if they can have a 8.9 or 9.1? Why is your question specifically derived from 8.3? Where do you calculate such a number, how and why?

Inquiring minds really want to know. You may be onto something. Please advise and yeah...the sooner the better. Not a lot of patience had once the thread is up.

The entire Mediterranean region is highly seismically active. There have been many devastating earthquakes throughout this area historically, from Morocco/Spain to Turkey and the nations in between. There is also volcanic activity in some locations.

Sure, there is a valid possibility a large quake can occur in the Mediterranean at any point in time. However, when will it be ? Next week or in 1,000 years? No body knows for sure, but as time progresses we will find out.

To the OP, Yes you could get hit with a large quake someday. You live in a seismically active area. If you are trying to predict one, I honestly hope you can come up with a way to do it. Imagine the lives that could be saved.

For those who would like to connect the quake in Turkey to a future one in Greece. The problem in suggesting one earthquake causes another is timing. Surely the earthquake in Turkey relieved pressure along that fault and may increase the pressure somewhere else, If you have the 8.x earthquake today too much time has elapsed to blame the 7.x in Turkey. There have been hundreds of after shocks and other quakes in the region so you could take your pick as to which one could be the cause.

Minutes after the huge earthquake that caused the tsunami in the Indian Ocean some connected faults ruptured. So you could say it 'caused' the other quakes. But a week later, too much time has gone by. At this point it all comes down to the straw that breaks the camel's back. How many straws the earthquake in Turkey added could be debated. What do the sensors embedded in your particular fault say? Is there an increased amount of pressure?

looks like being targeted for now..

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time

Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 08:04:23 UTC
Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 11:04:23 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 37.249°N, 43.846°E
Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region TURKEY-IRAQ BORDER REGION

reply to post by shell69

I understand what a seismograph does, but I do not understand what this particular reading means exactly. It actually looks like crazy activity to me

It means nothing. The mess you see on that is not seismic and I have said before this particular instrument is best forgotten.

It was covered in some detail in these posts
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Just out of curiosity, what does that area have to do with the New Madrid, or does it?

Not much really. If it was further east it might.