If You Ever Doubted That Big Quakes Can Trigger Activity at Volcanoes...

....Then read this, from a scientific article- that is well...unavailable any more.

The Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered hundreds of local volcano-tectonic events at Uturuncu. High-pass filtering of the long period surface waves reveals that the first triggered events occurred with the onset of the Rayleigh (R1) and Love (G1) waves. Activity gradually declined following the passage of the R1 and G1 waves, however rates of triggered events increased again with the passage of the R2/R3 and G2/G3 surface waves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such triggering has been observed for multiple surface wave trains from the same large earthquake. All the observations together suggest metastable conditions in the shallow summit region of Uturuncu volcano.

adsabs.harvard.edu...

Now this Uturuncu volcano has been making the rounds lately, and is inflating faster than any other volcanic system known- at a rate of a cubic meter of magma PER SECOND. It is roughly the size of the most recent Yellowstone Caldera, although I don't believe they have studied it enough yet to determine the actual size of the magma chamber underneath.

More info here:
www.ouramazingplanet.com...
and here:
www.ouramazingplanet.com...

I found this through researching the Andivolc project- a temporary seismic network setup to study this beast. I have tried and succeeded in locating this temporary seismic network located on the volcano itself, but I believe it has been shut down or is no longer operating. They used a data set from these observations to develop a sophisticated, automated neural network capable of filtering events with ~97% accuracy.

My concern is that as time moves on, and that thing inflates out the wazoo, its precarious position so close to a potentially huge quake closer to it than the big Chile quake was could set it off. The area has been experiencing a lot of quakes recently pretty darn close to it in Bolivia, northern Chile, and northern Argentina. And with inflation rates that fast, how long before it is deemed an ACTIVE supervolcano? It may be one already, for all they know. That's the scary part.

Here is the full text of this piece of the article, deposited here in case it disappears:

We find that the 270 ky dormant Uturuncu Volcano in SW Bolivia exhibits relatively high rates of shallow, volcano-tectonic seismicity that is dominated by swarm-like activity. We also document that the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake triggered an exceptionally high rate of seismicity in the seconds to days following the main event. Although dormant, Uturuncu is currently being studied due to its large-scale deformation rate of 1-2 cm/yr uplift as revealed by InSAR. As part of the NASA-funded Andivolc project to investigate seismicity of volcanoes in the central Andes, a seismic network of 15 stations (9 Mark Products L22 short period and 6 Guralp CMG40T intermediate period sensors) with an average spacing of about 10 km was installed at Uturuncu from April 2009 to April 2010. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes occur at an average rate of about 3-4 per day, and swarms of 5-60 events within a span of minutes to hours occur a few times per month. Most of these earthquakes are located close to the summit at depths near and above sea level. The largest swarm occurred on 28 September 2009 and consisted of 60 locatable events over a time span of 28 hours. The locations of volcano-tectonic earthquakes at Uturuncu are oriented in a NW-SE trend, which matches the dominant orientation of regional faults and suggests a relationship between the fault system at Uturuncu and the regional tectonics of the area; a NW-SE trending fault beneath Uturuncu may serve to localize stresses that are accumulating over the broad area of uplift. Based on automated locations, the maximum local magnitude of these events is approximately M = 4 and the average magnitude is approximately M = 2. An initial estimate of the b-value is about b = 1.2. The Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered hundreds of local volcano-tectonic events at Uturuncu. High-pass filtering of the long period surface waves reveals that the first triggered events occurred with the onset of the Rayleigh (R1) and Love (G1) waves. Activity gradually declined following the passage of the R1 and G1 waves, however rates of triggered events increased again with the passage of the R2/R3 and G2/G3 surface waves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such triggering has been observed for multiple surface wave trains from the same large earthquake. All the observations together suggest metastable conditions in the shallow summit region of Uturuncu volcano.

I might point out that an earthquake also caused the landslide at Mt. St. Helens in 1980, which then exposed a vent and proceeded to eruption. Let there be no more doubt: Quakes are very powerful things that can trigger activity at volcanoes. And with that, I'll leave the reader to thinking about a big quake near Long Valley or Yellowstone- although Yellowstone proved its stability once already in the face of the big one in the northwest of the park at Hebgen Lake. A bigger one in Cascadia, however, may have some consequences for Long Valley that are not pretty. At all.

Very interesting reading, TA -- and also a tad disturbing. It figures that there might be more super volcanoes here and there on the planet that have not yet been identified. So, it's worth keeping tabs on any and all sites that are even just possibly super volcanoes. With the global climatic impacts that can result from such massive eruptions, it would be most unpleasant (to put it mildly) if one only gets "discovered" because it actually erupts!

EDIT: while their use of "dormant" might be technically correct as the volcano is not visibly erupting, I find it hard to see how they equate that term to a volcano that has a "large-scale deformation rate of 1-2 cm/yr uplift" (as they say in the article). Seems to me that uplift of that scale implies significant activity, rather than dormancy. At the very least it's a rather misleading use of the term, in my humble opinion anyway.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Yep. Well they are watching this thing, and no doubt planning on permanent network installations- if they haven't done it already. But the more I think about this particular situation, the less I like it.

From this article, it is clear that this particular volcanic system is indeed affected by S-waves. Now you figure that quake in Chile was what, roughly 1500 km or more from this volcano? (I did a rough estimate in Google maps).

1500 km. Or more. 8.8.

Now think about just a 7.5, but only 100 km from it. That, and worse, is very possible, considering its location in southwestern Bolivia.

Heck, that volcanic system deep underground may have everything to do with all the quakes in the area. They say anything that happens within a 200 km mile radius of Yellowstone is likely in some way connected to the park. Some say 500 km radius.

The same may be true of this system.

Heck, that volcanic system deep underground may have everything to do with all the quakes in the area. They say anything that happens within a 200 km mile radius of Yellowstone is likely in some way connected to the park. Some say 500 km radius.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I read about the super volcano yesterday and it is pretty concerning, something else to be aware of, that is for sure. The rate it is growing is unbelievable to say the least and I do think and ponder the quote above. Everything imo is related and goes hand in hand.

Then I begin thinking even more....it becomes a snowball effect really.

Will we see more super volcano's like this in the near future? The Earth is evolving.......

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I think it can work either way, as in volcanic activity also causes earthquakes.

Uturuncu is still a concern. From the U.S. standpoint, it's not geographically local, but, if Uturuncu goes pop in any kind of big way, the global consequences will be beyond anything most people can imagine.

Planes worldwide would shut down due to ash coverage reaching all the way around the planet.
We may not have a summer for a year or two.
Consider the impact to the Amazon rain forests.

It can very well be a nightmare.
Anything in the VEI 7+ anywhere on the planet is a nightmare.

Extremely fascinating though. It's amazing how fast that thing is growing. Wow!

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Yes, I was just checking distances on good ol' Google Earth and near as I can get it with the measuring devices, Uturuncu is just a tad under 1,000 miles (1600 km or so) from the epicenter of Chile's Feb 27 2010 Mag 8.8 quake. So for sure, that huge quake could have woken things up a bit.

Alternatively, seeing as the scientists are not sure of the timing yet since the uplift started, things might have started even earlier with the mag 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile of May 22, 1960 -- especially considering the related three Concepción earthquakes, one the day before the Valdivia quake and then two on the same day. True, the Valdivia quake was about 250 km further south than the Feb 2010 event but was related to the same subduction zone (and hence, possibly, the same line of mountains and volcanoes.)

A couple of things from the extra reading you linked to in this Our Amazing Planet article are quite bothersome. Okay, several things are bothersome but I'd like to quote the following, under the section headed Uber-Uturuncu?:

Uturuncu is surrounded by one of the most dense concentrations of supervolcanoes on the planet, all of which fell silent some 1 million years ago.

and also:

(Oregon State University Professor) De Silva said it appears that local volcanoes hoard magma for about 300,000 years before they blow — and Uturuncu last erupted about 300,000 years ago.

"So that's why it's important to know how long this has been going on," he said.

(Source as in link given above. Information in parentheses in second quote added by me.)

Ummm... Yes, professor. I reckon that's a very good reason for wanting to know how long this has been going on, especially as there is that "dense concentration" of supervolcanoes around Uturuncu.

Okay, this could take decades or even centuries to lead to anything drastic -- if it does even then. Not hitting any panic buttons yet! But we'd be wise to keep track of it and I for one thank TrueAmerican for bringing this to our notice.

Mike

Originally posted by nineix
Extremely fascinating though. It's amazing how fast that thing is growing. Wow!

Yeah, no doubt. I just ran some numbers. If that inflation rate holds at its present rate for just the next three months, that chamber will have increased in size by a whopping

259,200 CUBIC METERS

!

And in a year, by over 1,036,800 CUBIC METERS.

But I digress. The documented triggering aspect of this from a large quake nearby is truly unnerving. I think it's safe to say that as long as that thing is growing, the more unstable it becomes. The more pressure is put on the capping rock, the more the risk of water entering the chamber (boom), and the closer it is to erupting. We can only hope that it behaves like many other volcanoes and starts into a period of deflation. SOON. !

Okay, this could take decades or even centuries to lead to anything drastic -- if it does even then. Not hitting any panic buttons yet! But we'd be wise to keep track of it and I for one thank TrueAmerican for bringing this to our notice.

reply to post by JustMike


Yeah I am with you....not going to go into freak out mode just yet but something to be made aware of that is for sure. I too am glad AT made this aware on ATS so more people can follow it. The more who are aware, the better.

Yeah, no doubt. I just ran some numbers. If that inflation rate holds at its present rate for just the next three months, that chamber will have increased in size by a whopping 259,200 CUBIC METERS ! And in a year, by over 1,036,800 CUBIC METERS. But I digress. The documented triggering aspect of this from a large quake nearby is truly unnerving. I think it's safe to say that as long as that thing is growing, the more unstable it becomes. The more pressure is put on the capping rock, the more the risk of water entering the chamber (boom), and the closer it is to erupting. We can only hope that it behaves like many other volcanoes and starts into a period of deflation. SOON. !

reply to post by TrueAmerican


It is unnerving...... I mean WHAT????? That BIG? OMG......going to outdoor world today to buy all that I will need to last underground, above ground and perhaps another Planet!!!

Just kidding.

It is something to really watch and as it seems you and Mike understand the dynamics much more than I ......you can bet I will be watching and listening to what you guys say about this monster in the coming months!!!

I was laughed out of my science courses for asking this question back in the day. Glad to see that science finally made the connection. Sure takes time though! You'd think it would be a fairly straightforward connection, eh? O_O

reply to post by TrueAmerican

at a rate of a cubic meter of magma PER SECOND

Which of course they actually cannot state if they are also stating that they do not know the size of the magma chamber. Sheesh, scientists! Not as exact as they used to be. Assuming a 1000 km cubed chamber for a super volcano see below.

It is estimated for example (from memory) that the Katla chamber is 10 km cubed, how much larger then is the one under this volcano. Maths and big numbers are not my best - I always get the decimal point or comma in the wrong place but follow me through with this.

There are 1,000,000 square metres in a square kilometre. There are 1,000,000,000 cubic metres in a cubic kilometre.

If the chamber under this volcano is large, as I suppose it would be since to be a supervolcano it has to eject 1000 cu km of material minimum, or putting it another way 1 years of 1cu mtr per second adds just 0.003154% to the volume of the chamber. Based on 4/3 PI r cubed as the volume of a sphere then the radius of that chamber would have to be around 6,205 metres to achieve 1000 cu km volume. The diameter therefore would be around 12.4 kilometres.

At 1,001,125,987,190 cu mt for a radius of 6,205 metres, and increase of 0.010 (1 cm) in radius thhat gives a volume increase of 4,840,262 so theoretically that would be 6.515349288 years to achieve that volume increase at 31,536,000 cu mtr in a year? (TA are you sure your figure is right?)

So either it is not inflating at that rate but is actually 6 cm on the radius a year, or the volume increase is actually 0.153483713 cu metres per second.

Of course the other alternative is that they are saying the chamber is 6500 cu km something around 6.5 times Yellowstone and well into VEI 8

With an inflation rate of 1 to 2 cm a year at the surface, giving maybe

reply to post by MamaJ


I tell ya what. I confess that I watch all this stuff going on ATS and elsewhere, and have never really felt that I needed to do the whole survival thing before, even in the face of riots, economic disaster, etc.

But this?

THIS could be the reason the elites are building bunkers. THE secret that is just now getting out. They tantalize us with movies about Yellowstone and Deep Impacts, while the whole time the real killer has been lurking and growing like a mega zit behind the scenes.

[/trip]*smacks meeself* - get that imagination back in the cage man. Ok, phew.... I'm back to now.

I was laughed out of my science courses for asking this question back in the day. Glad to see that science finally made the connection. Sure takes time though! You'd think it would be a fairly straightforward connection, eh? O_O

reply to post by CosmicEgg


Ha! That's funny...but it rings true doesn't it that people in general can be so arrogant to believe they know all.

Change is constant and what we think we KNOW today, is false tomorrow. This is Science too.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by MamaJ

 

I tell ya what. I confess that I watch all this stuff going on ATS and elsewhere, and have never really felt that I needed to do the whole survival thing before, even in the face of riots, economic disaster, etc.

But this?

THIS could be the reason the elites are building bunkers. THE secret that is just now getting out. They tantalize us with movies about Yellowstone and Deep Impacts, while the whole time the real killer has been lurking and growing like a mega zit behind the scenes.

[/trip]*smacks meeself* - get that imagination back in the cage man. Ok, phew.... I'm back to

now.

HAHAHA!!!!!

Man, I know thats right. it does lead one to wonder. If they are really building bunkers ( I haven't seen the evidence) then you are right.....they know something is up and it is too bad if this is the case, we would have to look for the sh** that is going to hit the fan. Geeeez....just tell us already. At least tell us, right?

Originally posted by PuterMan
error. Back in a mo

edit on 22/10/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

WTF. I just starred your post, cause it was very interesting. And all you give me now is an error? WHERE'S YOUR POST????



Ok, well I have a response anyway. Just because the top may be rising at 2 cm/yr, that says nothing about what may be happening down there laterally. That chamber could be expanding that way too.

But seriously, this thread is more about the triggering aspect of this from the 8.8, as there are other threads about the volcano itself. It would be very interesting to know what kind of energy remained after attenuation at that distance from the quake. So then it could be compared to various magnitude local quakes, and we could see what size quake it would take to upset the beast again with local S-waves.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Regarding the size of the chamber, in this Our Amazing Planet article you linked to it says:

Researchers realized about five years ago that the area below and around Uturuncu is steadily rising — blowing up like a giant balloon under a wide disc of land some 43 miles (70 kilometers) across. Satellite data revealed the region was inflating by 1 to 2 centimeters (less than an inch) per year and had been doing so for at least 20 years, when satellite observations began.

Okay, so if we have a disc about 70 km in diameter, (meaning radius = 35 km) then its surface area is:
Pi.35.35, which gives 3848.45 squ km. (Rounded.)

To simplify things, I'll call it 3800 squ km for now. That equates to 3800 000 000 sq metres.

So, if is is assumed that the ufplift is uniform and that it is due to magma entering the region below that area, then for each cm of inflation, 38,000,000 cu metres are added.

This corresponds quite closely to 1 cu m/sec figure given. However, as they state that the uplift is 1 to 2 cm -- meaning it is not totally uniform -- then the 38 million cu.m/p.a. figure is actually a low estimate.

Even so, as there are 1 (US) billion cu.m in one cubic km (1,000 x 1,000 x 1,000 cu.m), this amount of increase is not too massive in terms of total volume. At the current rate it would probably take a couple of centuries or so to add 1 cubic km.

Now, that might sound pretty good. After all, we know that when Toba blew around 73,000 years ago (give or take around 3k years), it released somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 cubic km of ejecta. On that basis some might say that we're looking good for a fair while.

But here's the problem: so little is known about what happens with supervolcanoes as they enter their eruptive state. There are theories, sure, but we've never actually seen one in modern times. Toba was the last "big one" and there is evidence that it came pretty close to wiping humans out altogether. (Some dispute the genetic arguments on that score, though.)

The big problem is that such volcanoes could sit relatively quietly for long millennia, slowly building up pressure. But what's the straw that breaks the camel's back? That's what we don't really know. How much uplift is too much? How much is nothing to worry about?

How long is a piece of string?

My humble opinion is that we cannot use the characteristics of the various types of "common" volcanoes to asses supervolcanoes. It's like observing a smal, sleeping dog and seeing what happens when it wakes up, then using those observations to predict what a sleeping bull elephant might do when it wakes up. The bull elephant is a couple of thousand times heavier and magnitudes more powerful. That fact that it has four legs and also sleeps is not very useful information, beyond telling us that it can be very dangerous if it awakes in a bad mood.

And right now, all the supervolcanoes we are watching are just like bull elephants -- except that we've never observed one as it woke up -- and we have no hope of using our study of poodles to even figure out what will wake them up.

But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try! I must emphasize that!

Mike

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I got the chamber dimensions in km wrong and had to recalculate and double check it. The change meant something is either wrong with their calcs or this is way bigger than they are saying. (Edit or they are saying it at 70+km disc. See below, as that would be bigger still!)

Yes just checked against 6500 km cubed. Gives a chamber of about 23 km diameter. I think that sounds more like what they are working on.

Unfortunately it bring the percentage annual increase down to around 0.000487% so once again with feeling

Which is scarier - 1 cu metre of magma a second (which may be wrong) or 0.000487% of the volume in a year




By the way 70km diameter gives a pure spherical volume of around 179,666,666,666,667 cu metres - more massive than anything eva seen eva b4. Let's just hope it is not spherical!!!!!! (PS: That is 179,000 cubic kilometres if the noughts are confusing you)

But here's the problem: so little is known about what happens with supervolcanoes as they enter their eruptive state. There are theories, sure, but we've never actually seen one in modern times. Toba was the last "big one" and there is evidence that it came pretty close to wiping humans out altogether. (Some dispute the genetic arguments on that score, though.)

reply to post by JustMike


Exactly. What can we expect if and when a big one blows? It has lead me to wonder if this "newly founded volcano" is not all that new and something is brewing within it....or another?

I am just pondering, of course, if this may indeed be the cause of the sounds and the sea life die outs?? I could be way off but it seems as if the puzzle is coming together nicely within my own mind frame.

Tell me your thoughts regarding.....my thoughts. It is appreciated!!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Don't forget that earthquakes are a RELEASE of built up energy.
Not saying you may be wrong though.

I think the aftermath of the Chile 8.8 has already happened earlier this year in June
www.abovetopsecret.com...
pretty sure thats the one, had half a dozen Mag 4 quakes as it erupted, ash cloud circled the world for weeks and caused airline cancellations here in NZ and Australia.
Closer to the 8.8 epi-center anyway.