Billion Tonne Comet May Have Missed Earth By A Few Hundred Kilometres in 1883

This picture taken in 1883 is considered by many to be the first image ever captured of a ufo.

On 12th and 13th August 1883, an astronomer at a small observatory in Zacatecas in Mexico made an extraordinary observation. José Bonilla counted some 450 objects, each surrounded by a kind of mist, passing across the face of the Sun. Bonilla published his account of this event in a French journal called L'Astronomie in 1886. Unable to account for the phenomenon, the editor of the journal suggested, rather incredulously, that it must have been caused by birds, insects or dust passing front of the Bonilla's telescope. (Since then, others have adopted Bonilla's observations as the first evidence of UFOs.)

A new examination of the the phenomona by Hector Manterola at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City suggests that what bonilla observed was a fragmented billion tonne comet, which came within 600 km and 8000 km of Earth.

Manterola and co estimate that these objects must have ranged in size from 50 to 800 km across and that the parent comet must originally have tipped the scales at a billion tonnes or more, that's huge, approaching the size of Halley's comet. Manterola and co end their paper by spelling out just how close Earth may have come to catastrophe that day. They point out that Bonilla observed these objects for about three and a half hours over two days. This implies an average of 131 objects per hour and a total of 3275 objects in the time between observations. Each fragment was at least as big as the one thought to have hit Tunguska. Manterola and co end with this: "So if they had collided with Earth we would have had 3275 Tunguska events in two days, probably an extinction event."

So the earth narrowly escaped a major extinction event in 1883 and no one knew anything about it. Here are some links to the original source:
arxiv.org... www.technologyreview.com...

Since all what we got is an eye witness account from the 1800s and a picture as sharp as a coal-drawing, it could have as well been a spider fart. We'll never know for sure. So while it's a rather interesting article, there's not much point in speculating about something so vague from so long ago. There are more important issues at hand right now : )

reply to post by H1ght3chHippie
A highly detailed account recorded over 2 days of observation by an astronomer. Do you realy think that because something happened over a century ago it has no scientific relevance to us today? Perhaps we should limit our studies to no more than a week in the past for a better understanding of the world around us? Or should we refrain from discussing anything at all unless it is current affairs related? ........What an irritating post

Well sure made my head turn "A double take " or what
Good find F & S
Personaly I think it a shoting gallery out there it only a matter of time

But hay if your a big bird with it head in the ground all the time you may not see
the next one coming

I dont think we give our past enough credit with all that they had accomplished. With our technology and information today, we forget how painstakingly difficult it was to accomplish something then, as it is now.

The myans had astronomy nailed, and all they had was their eyeballs and some stone buildings.

The egyptians had construction and engineering mastered, and all we can say about it today is "UUH, aliens musta helped dem"

S&F for you op, no doubt in my mind that this astronomer saw something interesting.

reply to post by Atzil321


And the pearl of wisdom that can be extracted from this case is what .. ? That various sized rocks float through space and display a potential hazard to life on earth ? This is not disputed by anyone, so again what's the point of re-evaluating this incident. None, it's a waste of resources, and it's pure speculation, since the "billion tonne(sic) comet" is nothing but one of a myriad of possibilities, none of which can ever be proven with the present data and evidence. Might as well have been a goose swarm, insects, alien space ship, a Santa clause invasions .. no evidence for either. Irritating waste of time. All you got is a charcoal painting that could show fly-poop and hearsy from someone who has been dead for more than a century, and as far as I can tell not a single witness, so for all I know this Jose could have made the whole thing up to gain attention, but go ahead and copy-paste another pseudo-scientific rainbow-press article without any meaning or relevance and call it "study" .. Irritating my butt

There is a possibility that it could be part of the comet 12P/Pons–Brooks, first noted in 1812 by several anstronomers and predicted to have a 70 year cycle, and it did return in 1883.The late Carl Sagan, (I don't think he is regarded as psuedo-science ) suggested that it could well have been a spectacular comet seen by the Chinese in 1486 BC. 12P/Pons–Brooks is due to return in 2024, so it is kinda relevant to some people today.

Thanks for you post OP, much appreciated.

reply to post by H1ght3chHippie
These scientists have put forward a hypothesis to explain an intriguing phenomenon that was observed in 1883. The explanation they give seems plausible to me, and I see no reason to doubt the integrity of the original witness. Whether or not their research can hold up to rigorous scrutiny remains to be seen. As to why this has any relevance or not is a matter of opinion I guess. Personally I find it fascinating that we MAY have just avoided a catastrophic extinction event a mere 100 odd years ago. Remember It is estimated that such impacts occur, on average, only once every 50 to 100 million years.

You are entitled to your opinion, but I find your barely disguised contempt rather puzzling
(There is a typo in the ex-text of the op, the fragments are clearly meant to be in metres not km)

reply to post by Atzil321
I wouldn't worry too much, some people get wind all the time, especially when they need fed. Good topic OP.

Just to add, since there is a tentative link between the 'two' events of 1883 I thought you might be interested in this book, in which the author has taken on board the suggestion that 12P/Pons-Brooks was the ancient comet of 1498 BC,

www.amazon.com...

Interesting summary in that link, and when you read it you can sort of see a connection with Bonilla's description of a kind of mist in his observations.

Nice article, somewhat spooky!

Wiki also mentions the possiblity of it being "C/1883 D1" of which I can't find any further information on the net. We know the next approach from Pons-Brooks but there is no approach data I can find for C/1883 D1. Which isn't great news, especially if it turns out it IS the offender and we know nothing about it.

Thanks for sharing this info though, always fascinating. And great to see such an early photograph too.

Sooooo ?

Shouldnt the comets tail have been visible for everyone to see for days before and after the event? How can a comet "sneak" by like this? There were many astronomers watching the skies back then and surely some others would have noticed a comet of this size fly by this close.

Originally posted by Waldy
Shouldnt the comets tail have been visible for everyone to see for days before and after the event? How can a comet "sneak" by like this? There were many astronomers watching the skies back then and surely some others would have noticed a comet of this size fly by this close.

Exactly, and there is the fact that there was NOT A SINGLE report of a meteor shower. If this thing was as close as they say there would have been a meteor shower of epic proportions. Sounds like this guy was just trying to lay claim to something for fame. To suggest that no one else was looking at it or saw it (it would have lit up the sky and been obvious) and to say because everyone else was looking far away seems rather far fetched.

Its Krakatoa stuff ejected to space, duh!

The best known eruption of Krakatoa culminated in a series of massive explosions on August 26–27, 1883, which was among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history.

Yes, late by few days, but who really know the exact date ?

Originally posted by markymint
Wiki also mentions the possiblity of it being "C/1883 D1" of which I can't find any further information on the net. We know the next approach from Pons-Brooks but there is no approach data I can find for C/1883 D1. Which isn't great news, especially if it turns out it IS the offender and we know nothing about it.

Thanks for sharing this info though, always fascinating. And great to see such an early photograph too.

Here it is on the JPL Small Body Database. It doesn't look like it's ever really a threat to hit Earth in its current orbit. At its closest it looks to be several million miles away from us.

Originally posted by NullVoid
Its Krakatoa stuff ejected to space, duh!

The best known eruption of Krakatoa culminated in a series of massive explosions on August 26–27, 1883, which was among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history.

Yes, late by few days, but who really know the exact date ?

Krakatoa was well observed and recorded by Dutch colonists nearby and was heard as far away as Perth, Australia and Mauritius (3000 mi away) where it was thought to be cannon fire from a nearby ship. I doubt they got the dates wrong.

About Krakatoa

To be honest that looks more like a sunspot to me instead of a comet. Granted its an old pic but it doesnt look like anything other than a sunspot

reply to post by douwa12


I agree looks more like sunspots. Considering they were about halfway between the solar minimum and maximum it appears normal to me.

A comet that big you would think people would notice. There are better descriptions of smaller comets from over a thousand years earlier.

Originally posted by Atzil321

50 to 800 km across and that the parent comet must originally have tipped the scales at a billion tonnes or more

So the earth narrowly escaped a major extinction event in 1883 and no one knew anything about it. Here are some links to the original source:
arxiv.org... www.technologyreview.com...

edit on 17-10-2011 by Atzil321 because: (no reason given)

50 to 800 km (kilometer) vs 50 to 800 m (meter). It's meter in the link my friend, please revise the info!!

I knew this was a typo (deliberate or not) when I spotted 800 km. While there are comets approaching that size, they rarely, if ever, gets to the inner planets in one piece. They stay in the Oort cloud indefinitely, for a very long time fortunately... Unfortunately, if one these ever gets nudged towards the Sun, it vastly increases the likelihood of impact as these super sized comets tends to fragment into many smaller but each piece capable of extinction event.

Several super size comets of 800 km size all fragmenting and headed towards the Sun could potentially increase impact chance to 100% in a short span of time with huge possibility of multiple large impacts which could transform Earth to Mars or Venus.

I find it hard to accept that it was birds, insects or dust for the cause. This happened over a two day period. If it is connected to Pons-Brooks, we will find out 2024. It is rather perplexing that no one else witnessed the event.