[Prediction] - Asteroid YU55 to impact Northern Atlantic on 8th November 2011.

Here are the tsunami warnings if your "predictions" come true

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by Jepic

 

Agreed.... The data sheets show if anything might have a problem, it'll be the facing side of the moon, since YU 55 is slated to come considerably closer to it than Earth.

Personally, I think seeing a 100-400 meter Asteroid hit the moon would be a great show to see! Not large enough to be a real threat to anything...but I'd imagine it'd be large enough to actually see the impact from here, unlike the NASA kamikaze mission that kinda flopped for seeing anything.

That would be quite a show. But can't say that I'd wanna see it. We need the moon and besides, what would Paris be without one...

reply to post by SatoriTheory



I have no idea what this means:

....yet I am suggesting everything began around 9/11.

Look......astronomers can make very, very precise measurements, especially with today's technology. Heck, even in the early 20th century, the search for a planet outside the distance of Neptune was spurred by some anomalies detected in its orbit. The calculations were slightly off, a bit exaggerated (leading to Percival Lowell's theory of "Planet X" occupying he orbit approximately where Pluto is. Lowell thought that whatever was out there would be a gas giant, Jupiter-sized. Still, Pluto was discovered (by a colleague of Lowell's, Clyde W. Tombaugh), and Neptune's orbit anomalies adjusted).


Now.....think about it, in the 1930s, to be able to find, and then observe and calculate the orbit of Pluto, some 30 A.U. away. Even today, with Hubble, cannot get any clear images, it is too small and distant.


We can accurately track our spacecraft, such as the Voyagers, all the way to the Outer Solar System, and beyond. Spacecraft "New Horizons" was launched in 2006, will arrive Pluto in 2015. Actively being monitored along the way, it took a trip past Jupiter for a velocity boost (gravitational sling-shot). Pretty darn accurate.

SO, why would NASA or JPL fail at being able to calculate a NEO asteroid's trajectory?

So with how much certainty can you attach to your prediction ?

50/50 ?

60/40?

90/10 in the asteroids favor ?

Would be interesting to know, especially as a lot of predictions are made on here, it would be good to have some realistic feedback on what the odds are that this event would occur

Originally posted by ProudBird
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

SO, why would NASA or JPL fail at being able to calculate a NEO asteroid's trajectory?

They haven't failed in their calculations.

Did you bother to think about the rhetorical question I asked? No you didn't.

st.

Originally posted by Vandalour

Here are the tsunami warnings if your "predictions" come true

Thanks, but that is WAY too high up.

Latitudes are the horizontal 'lines'. 38 latitude is roughly inline with Washington DC.

st.

reply to post by SatoriTheory



Your rhetorical question was just that....hyperbolic, overwrought:

What are the implications of officially annoucing an impact?

Meaningless, really. It is too similar in intent to the many, many fear-mongered "Elenin" threads of months previous.

Saw how that turned out.......


However, let's say that at some point in future, an asteroid is actually determined to be an impact possibility. Then, an announcement would be prudent, if for no other reason than to ensure every nuclear-armed nation on Earth was aware...so as not to mistake the impact for a nuclear detonation.

Let's look at some calculations to get an idea of what would be faced with:

impact.ese.ic.ac.uk...

Several variables ot play with, there.....

Originally posted by solargeddon
So with how much certainty can you attach to your prediction ?

50/50 ?

60/40?

90/10 in the asteroids favor ?

Would be interesting to know, especially as a lot of predictions are made on here, it would be good to have some realistic feedback on what the odds are that this event would occur

I'm making the prediction, so obviously I believe it. I was and am fully aware of the ridicule I would receive before I posted the prediction. Yet I believe it enough to go through with the post.

Decide for yourself once I get the explanation written up. Even with the explanation, alot of people will not 'get it'.

st.

Originally posted by ProudBird
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

Your rhetorical question was just that....hyperbolic, overwrought.

Meaningless, really. It is too similar in intent to the many, many fear-mongered "Elenin" threads of months previous.

Saw how that turned out.......

Yeah, I tried to convince people Elenin was nothing to worry about, they wouldn't listen.

As for my rhetorical question, it's now no longer rhetorical. I would like to know what thoughts you came up with upon thinking about it.

st.

reply to post by SatoriTheory


Better ??

reply to post by SatoriTheory


Take your time to explain your thoughts on this. Why this asteroid will change his path?
You knew when you posted this you would get ridiculed so why the effort?

reply to post by SatoriTheory


I did add some thoughts on that concept....

Also, took the liberty to use the online calculator program, and just put in a few parameters.

Asteroid YU55 is about 400 m diameter.

I went highest density, assumed dense rock.

I even surmised an impact only 200 km offshore (which is of course not in the middle of the Atlantic). Guessed at a depth of ocean, and used the suggested "norms" of 17 kps and 45 degree angle:

Your Inputs:

Distance from Impact: 200.00 km ( = 124.00 miles )
Projectile diameter: 400.00 meters ( = 1310.00 feet )
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km per second ( = 10.60 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1000 kg/m3
Target Type: Liquid water of depth 1000.0 meters ( = 3280.0 feet ), over crystalline rock.

Energy:

Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.45 x 1019 Joules = 3.47 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.1 x 105years

Major Global Changes:

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Atmospheric Entry:

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 54000 meters = 177000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 16.5 km/s = 10.3 miles/s

Isn't 38 lat, 46 long, in NW Iran, near the border with Turkey? Did I miss something?

Originally posted by Karmayogi11
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

Take your time to explain your thoughts on this. Why this asteroid will change his path?

The asteroid won't change it's path. However, my explanation might go some way to helping people understand why I don't believe impact data would be published.

You knew when you posted this you would get ridiculed so why the effort?

Should we stay silent and say nothing?
Should we fear speaking out?

Are you suggesting I should just stay silent and say nothing? Is that what you would do?

st.

Originally posted by ProudBird
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

I did add some thoughts on that concept....

Ok, so you mentioned nuclear. You are suggesting you would tell people ahead of time, so then telling people ahead of time opens up more questions:

What about the economic effects?
What about moving people from danger zones? When? Where to?
What about moving businesses from danger zones? When? Where to?
If business decide to move, then the people would have to move.
Who pays for the moving of people and businesses? Because as soon as you have announced there is going to be an impact and these areas are in the danger zone, you have crashed the price of property in that area. Who reimburses the cost of the properties that people can no longer sell.
What will happen to the cost of property insurance in those areas? Most likely sky rocket.

We humans have never witness a significant impact in this current money orientated world, we don't actually know what it would be like, we only have theoretical mathematics to work with.

st.

reply to post by SatoriTheory

It sounds like a prediction to me simply because, I do not have a clue what you are talking about, you have no sources, and what the hell an supposed to be looking for? An explanation of your theory would be nice otherwise this is nothing. What does 9/11 have to do with an asteroid which by my calculations, will come close, but has no immediate threat to our planet. Your theory(Prediction) would want to be a very convincing one.

reply to post by SatoriTheory


So if you're saying TPTB wouldn't warn the public outright, why drop clues for over a dozen years? Who are these clues for then? I guess we need to wait for your explanation, so get on with it then.

Originally posted by TreadUpon
Isn't 38 lat, 46 long, in NW Iran, near the border with Turkey? Did I miss something?

You missed something.

The prime meridian (zero) is a line from north pole to south pole through england. You can have longitude values going up to 180 degrees to the west of the prime, and longitude values up to 180 degrees to the east of the prime.

I already stated it would be an atlantic impact. I probably should have mentioned -46 long on the 'precise' value.

st.

reply to post by SatoriTheory

posted on 20/02/2009 @ 16:56 this post Originally posted by Karmayogi11
reply to post by SatoriTheory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Take your time to explain your thoughts on this. Why this asteroid will change his path?


The asteroid won't change it's path. However, my explanation might go some way to helping people understand why I don't believe impact data would be published.



You knew when you posted this you would get ridiculed so why the effort?

Should we stay silent and say nothing?
Should we fear speaking out?

Are you suggesting I should just stay silent and say nothing? Is that what you would do?

st.

Ok you say they will not warn the people in general about the real trajectory.

And yes I would say nothing I would just take some supplies and enjoy watching the show...

We live in MAYA so dont panic the world is just an illusion

Originally posted by Redevilfan09
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

It sounds like a prediction to me simply because, I do not have a clue what you are talking about, you have no sources, and what the hell an supposed to be looking for?

I did state I am trying to get an explanation written up. Maybe you could have just left a reply to say you were waiting for the explanation?!

An explanation of your theory would be nice otherwise this is nothing. What does 9/11 have to do with an asteroid which by my calculations, will come close, but has no immediate threat to our planet. Your theory(Prediction) would want to be a very convincing one.

You mention 'by my calculations'. I am curious if these means you are monitoring it by telecope and you have done the calculations yourself?

Or does it mean you have simply looked at NASA's orbital diagram?

At a guess, my explanation will fall on deaf ears. Of that I am convinced. But I will still try and explain it non-the-less.

st.