The SARS epidemic...

IN one of those 6 degrees of separation situatons, I was talking to someone who's flatmate's mother is a nurse in Hong Kong.

This epidemic is totally underreported, there have been whole villages in China whiped out.

In HK schools etc are closed and all meetings are cancelled, people even use stairs instead of the elevators to avoid people.

The doctors in the hospital in HK who first encountered it are all dead ....

I think this is one of those "don't talk about it in case it scares people" things with the media ....

but it IS big..

thanks netchicken.......



doesn't look good.

Ninth death in Canada attributed to mystery illness as officials warn vigilance must remain high
By Tom Cohen, Associated Press, 4/6/2003 19:32
TORONTO (AP) Canadian health authorities have confirmed the death of a ninth person from a pneumonia-like illness from Asia and warned hospitals Sunday to treat anyone with a respiratory problem as a potential carrier.

The outbreak in Canada of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, is the largest outside Asia, with more than 200 probable or suspected cases and thousands of people in home quarantine.

Canada's ninth death occurred April 1 at a Toronto hospital. The victim initially was given a different cause of death but officials took another look at the case when a relative was found to be a possible SARS victim, officials said Sunday.

The family is in quarantine and officials were tracing anyone who visited the funeral home at the same time to try to identify all those who may have been exposed to the illness. Dr. Colin D'Cunha, the Ontario chief medical officer of health, said the number of family members considered possible SARS cases was ''more than one and less than 10.''

The victim had been treated at Scarborough Grace Hospital east of Toronto, where the initial outbreak in the Toronto area occurred, officials said.

All nine deaths have been in Toronto, Canada's largest city. Toronto is 60 miles from the U.S. border.

Overall, Ontario reported a total of 179 probable or suspect SARS cases Sunday, an increase of 16 from the day before in Canada's most populous province. Cases also have been confirmed in the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Prince Edward Island, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.

Thirty-five people have recovered from SARS.

A Canadian woman returning from Hong Kong last month is believed to have been the first case in Canada, and officials said all the Toronto cases can be traced either to people who traveled in Asia or to the original exposure at Scarborough Grace Hospital.

Thousands of people exposed to the illness have been under a voluntary quarantine for 10 days, the infectious period of the illness. Authorities said they have been forced to confine seven people who had been exposed to the illness but refused to comply with the quarantine request.

Dr. James Young, Ontario's commissioner of public safety, said hospitals were on high alert for possible new victims.

''Everyone with a respiratory problem must be approached as a SARS case,'' he said Sunday.

Vice president slams China's handling of SARS, likens disease to World War III

By Lin Mei-chun
STAFF REPORTER
Monday, Apr 07, 2003,Page 3
Vice President Annette Lu (�f�q��) yesterday accused the Chinese government of having trampled human rights by concealing the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China, and described the international spread of the disease as "World War III."

While the government is scrambling to contain the spread of the deadly disease, the vice president described Taiwanese businessmen working in China as the most likely to carry the illness to Taiwan.

Lu was in Taoyuan to attend a women's gathering when she for the first time spoke publicly about the fatal illness.

Comparing the severity of the disease to "the eruption of World War III," Lu said money was such a major concern for businessmen, that it prompted them to invest in China because their profits in Taiwan were not enough.

"[But after all,] what is more important in this pursuit? Making money, or saving lives?" Lu asked.

A strong critic of China, Lu denounced Beijing as deliberately covering up the outbreak in China, allowing the disease to spread out-of-control.

No SARS-related deaths have been reported in Taiwan thus far, although about 120 suspected cases have been reported, 19 of which are considered "probable."

So far, 20 countries internationally have reported suspected cases, but China has been the most severely affected by far.

According to the Web site of the World Health Organization, 1,220 cases have been reported in China by Saturday, of which 49 have been fatal.

Having earlier advocated for spiritual reform, Lu again called for the pursuit of "spiritual wealth," saying she wondered whether the spread of the disease was God's way of punishing modern people, who focused excessively on material comfort.
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Chinese Newspaper claims SARS cases on the decline... can you say, Official Denial???


english.peopledaily.com.cn...

Originally posted by Netchicken
IN one of those 6 degrees of separation situatons, I was talking to someone who's flatmate's mother is a nurse in Hong Kong.

This epidemic is totally underreported, there have been whole villages in China whiped out.

In HK schools etc are closed and all meetings are cancelled, people even use stairs instead of the elevators to avoid people.

The doctors in the hospital in HK who first encountered it are all dead ....

I think this is one of those "don't talk about it in case it scares people" things with the media ....

but it IS big..

if as you say, it is this big, it cannot be an act of nature i belive it would be deliberate, but why?

www.upi.com...

CDC afraid of pandemic due to "Superspreaders".

China braces for an additional 3000 cases...

news.independent.co.uk...

Quarantine is being eased in Hong Kong ( that probably is genuine)
the WHO team have left: no mention has been made in the Chinese media of WHO criticism of China's delaying tactics
The party line remains that SARS is under control
preventative measures (on a 'duct tape' level) have been publicised.
Reaction in the rest of Asia is still hardening: an important football tournament here looks likely to be moved.
the main channel of information is in fact mobile-phone text messaging and there are strong rumours of government controls coming in here. ( the Chinese language internet is of course "controlled")

www.startribune.com...

SARS could worsen in Hong Kong.

www.alertnet.org...

Chinese Doctors accuse government of covering up SARS

right, ive come to the conclusion that this is a bioweapon, i now belive 100% that this is man made and has been deliberately released..

anybody agree?

what i dont understand is what would the motives be for this, why release it and what is the goal...

has anybody noticed anything unusual about this other than what we allready generally know, any symbolism or anything....

I don't agree it's a bioweapon.

• It's not deadly enough (mortality rate is 3-5%... WAY under ebola.)
  
• It's not infectous enough. (most people coming in contact with these people DON'T get the disease. Remember, it's been around since November. Flu would have been all over the place by then.)
  
• No vaccine. You don't release a bioweapon without that because someone you value may get the disease and die.
  
• Started in an unimportant (rurual) area, instead of in a large city.
  
• Doesn't fit any of the characteristics of bioweapon testing that we've seen in the past.
  

It's just a newly emerging disease. We see this happening every 5-10 years.

[Edited on 9-4-2003 by Byrd]

www.indianexpress.com...

Beijing/ Washington, April 9: A Chinese doctor has taken the extraordinary step of accusing the country�s health minister of covering up the number of people in the teeming capital infected by the SARS virus.

Dr Jiang Yanyong, 71, said in a letter sent to journalists that six people had died of SARS and 60 had been infected at Beijing�s military-run 309 Hospital by last Thursday.



Health Minister Zhang Wenkang told a news conference on that day that Beijing had only 12 cases, three of whom had died.

Although Chinese officials said the epidemic was under control, Chinese doctors contacted by Reuters and other news organisations on Tuesday spoke of packed wards and many more deaths than reported by Beijing.

Jiang said he and many other doctors and nurses had been angry when they heard Zhang�s statement.

��I think he wants very much to accomplish big things so he must tell lies,�� Jiang, a Communist Party member for more than 50 years, said in the letter. Jiang�s move, highly unusual for a party member, could lay him open to being purged or even jailed for criticising leaders publicly.

Asked to comment on Jiang�s allegation, Health Ministry spokesman Deng Haihua said military hospitals were not under Zhang�s jurisdiction.

At a press meet on Wednesday, Beijing vice-mayor Zhang Mao side-stepped questions on the doctor�s accusations, saying the central and local governments would report figures regularly, but declined to elaborate or give figures. He said the Health Ministry was reporting daily to the WHO. (Reuters)

This is very true, in terms of the mortality rate. I would contend that this lends itself very well to a "low level" bioweapon for that very reason. Consider, it takes considerably more time, effort, manpower, and resources to care for the sick and injured than it does to deal with the dead.

A widespread, highly contagious disease that rarely kills, but makes victims exceedingly sick, requiring extensive hospital care would be much more effective in tying up national health care resources, and economical resources as well. It also ties up considerable non-medical manpower as well, when you begin to implement widespread curfews/quarantines (which China is starting to do).

There is also the other economic impacts, such as loss of business when people are spooked and dont come out to do business (which is precisely what is happening).

There is also the psychological effects: The vast majority of the population is afraid to leave their homes for fear of catching the disease. The majority of the population losses faith in national medical care because it is obvious there is nothing they can do to prevent the disease. The majority of the population also losses faith in public information when it becomes clear that they have been lied to extensively (again, exactly what is happening in China)

Its called scalability of conflict. This is currently low level, but still effective.

"Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity."

Honestly, nobody stupidly releases ANYThing unless they've got the cure for it and they sure don't release it on their population.

It's just an ordinary disease, coupled with a government official saying "no, everything is just fine."

Honestly, nobody stupidly releases ANYThing unless they've got the cure for it and they sure don't release it on their population. Posted by Byrd

Actually, in a low level kind of conflict, assuming that is what this is, you WOULDNT make public a cure or vaccine for it. Doing so would immediately identify the culprit, and it would only be a matter of time before the victim got hold of the antidote, so it would essentially be a useless weapon.

If it were a "harrassment" type of weapon, the country of origin would do everything it could to prevent the infected from coming into thier country (which everyone is doing).

Isnt it interesting that the US has had NO fatalities from SARS yet?

Given our better medical system, better transportation system, and the fact that we had a lot of warning and have had only a handfull of cases -- no, it's not surprising that we haven't had any deaths.

And no, if you make the virus you know what cures it. You might not ever have been inside a microbiology lab, but microbiologists don't sit around toying with stuff to see if they can make things to make people really sick -- without knowing what they did and how to cure it promptly.

The slightest mistake in a micro lab, and you're in serious and potentially deadly trouble. The first thing they do when preparing a "weapons grade" microbe is to make sure they have something that kills it fast... and everyone gets innoculated against it.

And no, if you make the virus you know what cures it. You might not ever have been inside a microbiology lab, but microbiologists don't sit around toying with stuff to see if they can make things to make people really sick -- without knowing what they did and how to cure it promptly. Posted by Byrd

I have no doubt that if this is in fact a bioweapon, whoever designed it likely *does* have a cure for it. However, they are NOT going to release it to the public, as that would be a dead giveaway.

I was thinking that the SARS epidemic could be a virus created to elimanate the overflowing populations rates in Asia

I'm with Byrd on this: Mother Nature + stupidity + mendacity.
However, when I recall the complete pig's ear my own government made over BSE (Mad Cow disease) I'm not inclined to be excessively critical of Central Government here.
Incidentally, Dr Jiang's rather brave statement has not been released in any way, shape or form in China: but it's already on countless phones via text-messaging.