Magnetosphere Compressed and Collapsed today 9.26.2011? No not from Elenin!

Originally posted by InnerPeace2012

Originally posted by Calex1987

Originally posted by josh2009s
So this is not good?

eh just means the magnetic shield that surrounds the earth and blocks most of the shots from a flare is currently going into the 12th round with ali....and its not looking good....which means if it does go down a nd a big one goes off the planet is susceptible to it and it would cause more problems then if the shield was at full...such as more sats getting knocked out of power power grids going down ect..

Apparently, it's not just power grids we're talking here...

Nasa Issues Warning of Solar Superstorm 2012 - "One Billion Could Die!"

Given the weakening magnetosphere, if this is confirmed.

edit on 27-9-2011 by InnerPeace2012 because: (no reason given)

nasa would never outright in the first place say it would kill a billion people because even they know for a fact it would only effect the electronics in the world..it would never actually kill you think of it as a really strong EMP burst.....

reply to post by Calex1987


You don't think a billion could die if the electronics went out ??

The way many people are it is definitely a possibility.

Originally posted by GrinchNoMore
reply to post by Calex1987

 

You don't think a billion could die if the electronics went out ??

The way many people are it is definitely a possibility.

i dont think billions would die because the power went out.....im sure if the power went out and it didnt come back in time we would lost people in hospitals....mass panics and mobs may kill some....but i dont believe just as it hits a billion people would die off...im sure alot would perish to the after effects of such a global disaster....but not just because of the flare..

so in short do i believe people will die cuz of the flare...No
do i believe people will die as a direct result of the flare knocking out all power and electronics yes (prime example hospital intensive care unit aka life support)

KP is back in the red right now also, just fyi...

Another thing I would like to point out is in the attached image. The positive/negative magnetism surrounding 1302, 1301, 1304, 1305, and 1306 are in close proximity which makes each spot more active and probable for continuous coronal mass ejections. The ones produced on the 24th we all long lasting CMEs, meaning they weren't just quick bursts but long period ejections. It's the longevity of those lower class CMEs that caused today's geomagnetic storms and the intense stress on the magnetosphere.

reply to post by InnerPeace2012

I didn't say the magnetic field is not weakening, I said the OP in the thread you linked is garbage. NASA made no such claim.

The magnetosphere has weakened about 10% since we've been measuring it. But it is stronger than it has been for 50,000 years and it is more than capable of deflecting the solar wind. The harder the solar wind pushes on the magnetosphere, the harder it pushes back. That is why the pressure increases when the density and/or velocity of the solar wind increases.

It's ironic that people think that a weakened magnetic field makes us more vulnerable to solar activity because it is the magnetic field itself which has the potential to disrupt power grids. It is the fluctuations of the field caused by the solar wind that creates induced currents in powerlines. It is those currents (power surges) which endanger the grids. If the magnetic field were stronger the induces currents would be stronger.

If our magnetosphere were to disappear completely there would be no geomagnetic storms. Of course, if that were to happen, after a billion years or so most of our atmosphere would be dragged off into space but we don't have to worry much about that.

reply to post by dasysgod

Solar activity has been decreasing. The magnetic configuration of the most active region (1302) has been stabilizing (it is now Beta-Gamma). The likelihood of strong activity is declining.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels on day one (27 September). Low to moderate levels are expected on day two (28 September) and predominantly low levels are expected on day three (29 September). Region 1302 remains the most active Region on the disk but has only produced one M-class event over the past 24 hours.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...



www.swpc.noaa.gov...

I guess we'll see then over the coming days.

I personally believe that with the alignments and magnetic acceleration caused by such that it will re-increase in intensity to beta-gamma-delta. After all, it's magnetism itself that causes a sunspot to begin with and it's feeding time.

reply to post by dasysgod

Odd that the activity has been decreasing as the "alignment" approached.
You know the "alignment" actually happened about 2 and a half hours ago, right?

The Sun produces plenty of magnetic activity without any help at all.

reply to post by Phage


That post gives validity to "alignments", Phage....

I think you need to look at a sim and look at uranus, mecury, sun, earth and the moon from now till the 29th.
Need a link?

Here try this one
www.solarsystemscope.com...

reply to post by Signals

If you mean because of the geomagnetic activity we've been seeing, no. That originated on the Sun a few days ago.
My point is that activity on the Sun has been declining.

(Yes, I saw the wink)

reply to post by dasysgod

Thanks I have access to orreries which are easier to use.
"Alignments" happen all the time. So what?

Here's some extra info posted from the Tampa Bay, FL NWS office about the mag-storms.

Early Autumn Geomagetic Storm

A Geomagnetic Storm, now at the G2 (Moderate) level and now forecast to reach the G3 (Strong) level began following a shock arrival today (Sept 26) at 1237Z (8:37am, Eastern). This storm is a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on Saturday morning.

Customers who may be affected, power grid operators, satellite operators, commercial airlines, etc., have been notified and are taking appropriate actions to minimize any adverse impacts.

We’re still early in the storm, waiting for the predicted higher levels of activity to occur and no impacts have yet been reported to SWPC – these will be contained in a For The Record that will follow this event at its completion.

We can consider this a near miss because we’re only seeing the flanks of the CME. If this one had been headed directly at the Earth, then severe (G4) to extreme (G5) storming would have been likely. Also, the storm duration will be limited to about 12 hours, rather than the 24-36 hours that a direct hit could cause.

The active region responsible for the CME is moving into a more geo-effective position and will remain capable of sending more activity our way for several days. In the past 24 hours, a slight decrease in the frequency of activity has been noted, but the region remains capable of emitting strong storms.

The most likely locations for aurora from this storm are Europe and Asia, but activity could persist long enough for North American viewers. The maps below show likely visibility of aurora keyed to Green (G1), Yellow (G3), and Red (G5)

reply to post by Phage


Activity has been decreasing ??? I believe these statistics are abit skewed, as in , watching a jobs report that says jobs are on the decrease, while just 5 hours ago they were increasing.

I feel the electromagnetic energy, and see it in the skies around here, it certainly has not decreased at all, lately.

The EM field did NOT disappear or collapse in the video on the OP! It weakened for a moment, as it always does in these cases, and that's all. The title of the thread should be changed.

Someone please clarify for me: Is there any way that the worlds electric grid could be permenately fried by an outside energy source, i.e. the suns electromagnetic activity? Meaning could we lose electricity forever? Or until we learn how to adapt to the new electromagnetic environment by making adjustments to current tech? Hopefully a stupid question with an easy answer....Phage I am looking in your direction.....

reply to post by Phage


although this isn't dirrectly about the magnetosphere it'll show you that nasa has sen this comming since 2002.
science.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


Well, thanks for the reply, but we still have the upcoming Solar Maximus that sure has a potential of creating geomagnetic storms that can cause you know what...

Let's not pretend it's all good, given the upcoming Solar Maximus, we're definitely in for a rough ride. It's really hard to predict at this stage if it's gonna cause any major problems for us.

Here is an interesting update (Sept. 19, 2011) from NASA:

“We’ve just learned that some flares are many times stronger than previously thought,” says University of Colorado physicist Tom Woods who led the research team. “Solar flares were already the biggest explosions in the solar system—and this discovery makes them even bigger.”

Source

We can only hope for the best...

Edit: Now solar activity is not decreasing it's just starting.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

Source

reply to post by InnerPeace2012

Yes. A devastating geomagnetic storm could happen next week, next month, next year, or not for 100 years. We currently have no way of predicting it but there is certainly no reason to expect it the near future.

That article doesn't really have much to do with the discussion. It's about a phenomenon which was recently discovered because we have only recently had the tools to do so. It does not indicate that devastating solar activity is any more likely than it ever has been.

We can do more than just hope for the best. We can continue to do research with the goal of being able to better predict solar activity and geomagnetic activity. Making progress with that will better enable us to take measures to protect our infrastructure from the damaging effects of powerful solar activity and geomagnetic storms. We already have a vastly greater ability to study these events than we did during the last solar maximum.

In any case, the magnetosphere did not collapse nor is there any reason to believe it may in the foreseeable future. It isn't the twelfth round.