It could just be coincidence.

Found this interesting video on coincidence and chance, struck me as something that some might need to be reminded of here on ATS.

It seems sometimes that critical thinking is lacking in some of the recent threads, sometimes its just a coincidence.

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena.[1] The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. If an individual coin toss or the roll of dice is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted.

could apply to many topics on ats.

Once when I was young we were driving along at about 70mph and I seen away in the distance a large bumble bee. At the time I said to myself, that's going to fly straight through the tiny gap that I had the window open.

Sure enough, it flew straight through the gap, and being so utterly shocked at the prospect and thence the reality it flew straight into my wide open gob.

Coincidence ?

Cheers

P.S That is actually a true story

reply to post by benrl



I totally agree that critical thinking skills are critically missing, not just here but around the web.
In that spirit I'd like to point out a fallacy in the video (unintentional, for sure). It bases the calculation on the premise that an equal number of people is born on any given day of the year. And this is simply not true. More people are born on certain days than on others.
(As to why this is so, it would require a dissertation. And it would still be speculation, of course.)
If the author of the video disagrees, s/he would have to demonstrate the validity of the premise first.

But I really do like exercises in intelligent rationality.
Keep them coming.

Excellent video!
S&F

Originally posted by AdAstra
reply to post by benrl

 

I totally agree that critical thinking skills are critically missing, not just here but around the web.
In that spirit I'd like to point out a fallacy in the video (unintentional, for sure). It bases the calculation on the premise that an equal number of people is born on any given day of the year. And this is simply not true. More people are born on certain days than on others.
(As to why this is so, it would require a dissertation. And it would still be speculation, of course.)
If the author of the video disagrees, s/he would have to demonstrate the validity of the premise first.

But I really do like exercises in intelligent rationality.
Keep them coming.

edit on 19-9-2011 by AdAstra because: (no reason given)

edit on 19-9-2011 by AdAstra because: (no reason given)

Buying lottery tickets have nothing to do with the lack of critical thinking. Most of us humans have that capability to some extent, but they disable it and chose the alternative of "hope." That ticket of hope is the ticket for escaping the confines of their worldly situation in about the only way they can imagine (other than TV). That small wedge of hope is priceless in their lives. And it can be purchased cheaply from one week until the next.

reply to post by Aliensun


The video wasn't about lotto players being irrational, what it said is ascribing mystic powers to your winning numbers IS irrational.

Haha Nice1 mate


I posted a QualiaSoup vido ATS thread about Critical thinking before

Some ATSers need a lesson in Critical Thinking


There are some good comments in there, I recommend you have a gander.


Cheers! and thanks for the reminder to check out more QualiaSoup vids

Originally posted by Aliensun
Buying lottery tickets have nothing to do with the lack of critical thinking. Most of us humans have that capability to some extent, but they disable it and chose the alternative of "hope." That ticket of hope is the ticket for escaping the confines of their worldly situation in about the only way they can imagine (other than TV). That small wedge of hope is priceless in their lives. And it can be purchased cheaply from one week until the next.

I never said buying lottery tickets was irrational. Where did you get that from my post?
And I agree that it is a ticket of hope, and that the value and power of hope should never ever be underestimated.
Not to mention that people do win, the lottery all the time - and they wouldn't if they didn't buy a ticket.

probability theory, very interesting . i think i remember the narrator making similar videos along atheist lines .
he pours a fairly bitter attitude into his rationale , but this is sometimes refreshing in the face of his contemporarys's ridiculousness , which i am sure he has enjoyed arguing with, for the sake of debate.

i want to point out an angle where he is wrong , and potentially where he is allowing his own beleifs to cloud his seemingly unbiased approach ,

and that is where he says humans have used adaptive reasoning and recognition of coincidence to actually live within a the earth's "hostile" environment , and that we have become "so called masters of our environment"

these quickly put assumptions within a torrent of rhetoric he produces , are a place to stop and say , why do you say the environment is hostile?
there are a multitude of reasons why the environment is not hostile , for example you can eat greens , breathe with no problem , run , walk , jump , the list is endless. you can build houses , farm animals, store supplies and clean up with tools , you can put your feet up in an armchair.

he has discounted then the perspective called "looking on the bright side" to take his science into a colder form of disdain, where no one is allowed any sprinkling of magic nor any giving of thanks .because he is an atheist.

maths doesnt prove atheism , far from it . but the rest of his approach to probablility theory has raised the issues as he has drawn them out for us.

what is missing , and that gap being crucial in assessment of coincidences , is the foresight aspect . a coincidence in hindsight is of course overlooked immediately , as he took pains to point out . but the foresight aspect , that is where his maths is going to confound people , and make them look at just how very valuable these type of coincidence are . so he doesnt bother to impress people with the sheer numbers involved in foresight coiincidence

interesting.....i agree there certainly is an element of people who lack the abililty to think laterally or critically,but as a poker player i must say that coincidence or luck if u have it is random,but in the game some have the abililty to understand probability,and that is the difference between luck and skill...so in the game having an understanding of propbability you have a much higher chance of winning...

peace

Great thread, and a great reminder.

Critical thinking and - frankly - education are sorely missing in an awful lot of stuff I read here on ATS and elsewhere these days. The nonsense about Comet Elenin has been shocking.

I think that alot of people simply regurgitate stuff they've heard elsewhere because they believe the source to be credible and they read it elsewhere. I am constantly amazed at the number of threads on ATS that reference Sorcha Faal when even the simplest bit of detective work shows that David Booth continually uses the pseudonym to scare monger and propagate hoaxes. Of course, he relies on peoples ignorance to spread his stuff.

And its the same about 9/11 theories, and chemtrails. People spout what they think they know rather than actual fact.

I'd love to see critical and logical thinking make a comeback. Sadly I think that society is generally dumbing down, and thats a worry.

Just remember the term "meaningful coincidence", then paranoia and superstition will leave you alone.

...unless a sociopath is really out to enslave you and destroy your life

Originally posted by ZIPMATT
i want to point out an angle where he is wrong , and potentially where he is allowing his own beleifs to cloud his seemingly unbiased approach ,

and that is where he says humans have used adaptive reasoning and recognition of coincidence to actually live within a the earth's "hostile" environment , and that we have become "so called masters of our environment"

these quickly put assumptions within a torrent of rhetoric he produces , are a place to stop and say , why do you say the environment is hostile?

Have you ever been in a storm shelter? Is your home heated?

Originally posted by ZIPMATT
he has discounted then the perspective called "looking on the bright side" to take his science into a colder form of disdain, where no one is allowed any sprinkling of magic nor any giving of thanks .because he is an atheist.

He's looking on the realistic side. I agree, don't get bummed out about reality. Are you saying only atheists can have a realistic perspective? I agree.

Originally posted by ZIPMATT
maths doesnt prove atheism , far from it . but the rest of his approach to probablility theory has raised the issues as he has drawn them out for us.

The burden of proof isn't on the atheist.

Originally posted by ZIPMATT
what is missing , and that gap being crucial in assessment of coincidences , is the foresight aspect . a coincidence in hindsight is of course overlooked immediately , as he took pains to point out . but the foresight aspect , that is where his maths is going to confound people , and make them look at just how very valuable these type of coincidence are . so he doesnt bother to impress people with the sheer numbers involved in foresight coiincidence

Are you talking about prophecy? Prophecy is about meaningful coincidence and interpretation. As a magician, I know it can also be a trick.

EDIT: I left out the self fulfilling kind.