Elenin Has Not Survived Perihelion

Originally posted by Common Scarecrow


Why do you think we get yearly meteor showers from comets that break up?

That would be because the debris pretty much follows the orbit of the original comet. It gradually spreads out in the long run but in the short run it stays pretty well together. If it didn't, if it all went randomly shooting off in every direction, we wouldn't have meteor showers.

Comet Linear (C/1999 S4) fell to pieces as it neared the Sun. The fragments continued on, so close to the original orbit that they could be found months later, right where they were supposed to be along the same orbit. hubblesite.org...

Originally posted by jamieastronaut
reply to post by Common Scarecrow

 

1st. You do realize we're talking about a comet and not an asteroid right?
2nd. Elenin is 4km wide, or around 3 miles wide, not 10 miles, and it's not a ball of metal, it's a ball of ice... that might make a small difference no?
3rd. The only reason you use the term extinction level event or E.L.E is because you've seen too many youtube videos that claim to "decipher" acronyms for ELENIN.

good day. I said good day!

Sorry, I did not realize that you have actually visited Elenin and done a complete analysis of the material it is composed of.

Ask any scientist, if a mile wide piece of comet hit the earth, it would be an extinction level event.

Originally posted by Phage

Originally posted by Common Scarecrow


Why do you think we get yearly meteor showers from comets that break up?

That would be because the debris pretty much follows the orbit of the original comet. It gradually spreads out in the long run but in the short run it stays pretty well together. If it didn't, if it all went randomly shooting off in every direction, we wouldn't have meteor showers.

Comet Linear (C/1999 S4) fell to pieces as it neared the Sun. The fragments continued on, so close to the original orbit that they could be found months later, right where they were supposed to be along the same orbit.

edit on 9/17/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Yes, and we all know that ALL comets act EXACTLY the same!

reply to post by Common Scarecrow

No.
They aren't. But they all follow the rules of orbital mechanics. Why wouldn't they?

Who knows if those pics that the amateur astronomer took are even photo-shopped ??? If the government offered me a million dollars , i think i would do it too .That money would come in real handy to build him a underground bunker or reserve a spot with obama.......

Originally posted by Common Scarecrow

Originally posted by oxbow

Originally posted by Common Scarecrow

Originally posted by oxbow
reply to post by Common Scarecrow

 

You are not stating facts though, rather, you are wilfully choosing to ignore them.

What "facts" am I ignoring?

The fact that the remnants of Elenin will continue to follow the same orbital path, and the fact that we are not, and never were in that path. Several people have pointed this out, yet you continue to claim that Elenin is a threat.

If something breaks up, forces with different directional vectors are applied to the pieces, sending them different directions. Some slow down, some speed up, some go up, some go down, some go left, some go right.

What forces are applied? What applies them?

I think you have not even thought this through yourself.

In space, if something disintegrates, it may slightly disperse according to Brownian Motion, but essentially, the center of mass of the original object and the center of mass of the dispersed object follows the same path.

Inertia mandates that this is so.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Common Scarecrow

 

No.
They aren't. But they all follow the rules of orbital mechanics. Why wouldn't they?

I wasn't aware that orbital mechanics does not allow for objects, which are acted upon by outside forces, to move in a slightly different direction.

Originally posted by ViP3r
Who knows if those pics that the amateur astronomer took are even photo-shopped ??? If the government offered me a million dollars , i think i would do it too .That money would come in real handy to build him a underground bunker or reserve a spot with obama.......

Oh dear! Just get oever it already! In the end that ' wimp of a comet' has won the debate so wimps everywhere can now celebrate.

reply to post by Common Scarecrow

Outside forces like what? Something other than the gravity of other bodies?

What forces? How strong? How sustained?

Even if Elenin were to break apart ,the trail that this evaporated material leaves can grow quite large and will develop into tails.The coma can be thousands of times (or more) larger than the cometary nuclei, while the tails can be up to 1 A. U. in size (remember, 1 A. U. is about 100 million miles!).

If elenin has broken up why hasn't there been a report from NASA stating this? If they took the time to tell everyone there was no threat from elenin surely the would put out a article stating this.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Common Scarecrow

 

Outside forces like what? Something other than the gravity of other bodies?

What forces? How strong? How sustained?

My point exactly.

"Forces" could be gravity, solar wind, impacts with other objects, etc.

How strong? Who knows.

How long sustained? Who knows.

Which is exactly my point. NO ONE knows.

It just may be a "non event".

or .......

It may be an event with substantial consequences.



So to ridicule one for thinking it may be a consequential event is the same as someone ridiculing someone for thinking it will be a "non-event".

reply to post by ViP3r

Who knows if those pics that the amateur astronomer took are even photo-shopped ???

I suggest you do some very basic research on modern astrophotography; you will then understand why you keep hearing giggling coming from the sidelines. Hint: nearly all images these days are collected by a digital process.

Within the week there will be a report stating Elenin has not broke up/vanished/ went up in a puff of nothingness. When that happens those same "I told you so, get over it" members will probably just say " It was only an amateur astronomer"....watch this space.

respects

reply to post by buster2010

If elenin has broken up why hasn't there been a report from NASA stating this?

It's not their job. NASA hasn't commented on things like the timings of occultations taken by astronomers. That's done in the astronomical community. Incidentally, check this out:

www.skyandtelescope.com...

The above link is not off topic, it is an example of "amateur" astronomers at work!

reply to post by Phage


Hey Phage.

Quick question. Is it possible that we might see a meteor shower from the break up of Elenin? Or will we not pass through the debris field? I ask because I love a good show! And this one would be particularly sweet.

ALS

After reading all of this thread, it seems obvious that ALL the MYSTERIES of space, are totally known by a certain group here on ATS, so everyone that likes to 'speculate' might as well pull their heads in, and find a worthwhile hobby, instead of worrying about possible NON-doomsdays events!

I mean, like there's really nothing 'unknown' OUT THERE, to worry about right?