The Elenin Haters and a Simple Question

reply to post by XtraTL

Umm, yes, we do know. It is called science. Once you know some science, you can remove half the uncertainty in your life. Elenin is one thing you DON'T have to worry about.

Science is not certain and has been proven wrong many times in the past. For you to deny this is down right ignorance.

If you continue to ignore all evidence and the hundreds of years of carefully developed science, your view of the world is forever controlled by fear of this and that. If you learn some mathematics, physics, basic chemistry and biology, etc, you can finally understand what contingencies can be completely and totally ruled out. They no longer become a concern.

Once again, science has been proven wrong time and time again, and I have no doubt that some of the things you people perceive as absolute 100% fact will be proven wrong in the future as well. This is a repeating story and it is not about to stop on account of us.

People who understand science do not worry about comets turning out to be harbingers of death and/or colliding with earth, and they are NEVER wrong.

Except for the numerous times that comets HAVE collided with the Earth you mean? They are NEVER wrong... except for in those cases.

Yes, comets can hit the earth and have done so in the past.

Jolly good then.

But science can predict orbits with tremendous accuracy. A comet cannot be on a course that will miss earth by as much as Elenin and then suddenly decide to change its mind and start on a collision course with earth.

There it is. The scientific communities assumption, that once again, we account for everything that takes place in space and the universe, that we are somehow able to predict, with utmost certainty, that NOTHING will interfere with the orbit of a celestial body... even though *gasp* it has happened in the past. This is the "know-it-all" mentality that I spoke of in my OP.






So now to all you arrogant "scientists" who have come to prove me wrong, let me state something which seemed to fly over all of your heads. I personally don't believe Elenin will do anything to harm us. I actually believe the statistics and most of all, I believe my own person gut feelings on the issue. They haven't done me wrong in the past.

However, you guys come in here with your usual swagger and continue to do in my thread what you do in every single other Elenin thread. You assume I am a doomsayer, you insult me, you try to prove chance and probability wrong (which is silly, I might add), and you prove my point.

This is a conspiracy website, yet as some people have mentioned, there are people here who don't seem at all to buy into ANY conspiracy theories, but what is much worse, they refuse to accept any sort of POSSIBILITY of any of those theories being true.

People who so self righteously believe that their "science" is 100% accurate, fail to accept the fact that science was wrong many times in the past, even in recent times, and that science does not take in the chance or probability that something might affect whatever it is they are talking about.

Going back to Elenin - SURE, if absolutely nothing happens to the comet and it continues on as scientists normally said, everything is going to be hunky dory, it is going to pass, and everyone will move on. BUT, to flat out deny the possibility that something could affect the comet, that there is no chance whatsoever that something would change the outlook of where this thing is headed - that is big headed ignorance and it is running RAMPANT on ATS and in the academic world.

The belief that science is undebatable is flat out wrong. If that were the case then there would be no new scientific discoveries, there would be no advancement to current theories, and we literally wouldn't have to worry about anything. However, there is a little thing called the chaos theory which has proven time and time again that no matter how many times we THINK we know something, and no matter how many times we believe that something is going to go as planned - there will always be that time where we are proven wrong and there is something there to mess that up.

For people to believe that in outer space, the most chaotic place known to human intelligence, that everything ALWAYS goes as planned... c'mon guys. How ignorant and selfish can you be to believe that we have conquered the systems of space when we haven't even been to a planet outside of our own. Utter ridiculousness.

With that I bid you adieu and should anyone want to argue against possibility and chance - know that beforehand - you are wrong. There will always be possibility and chance outside of what you believe and it is best that you accept it before it surprises you.

reply to post by gwydionblack

Now you claim that science is 100% accurate. Would you like me to go into the annuls of history and provide detailed exampled of how science has been proven wrong time and time again.

At first I thought you misunderstood what I said. Now I believe you are into another straw man argument. As another poster also pointed out the uncertainty is so small that there is no possible way for this to happen. This is not about probabilities, but about uncertainty in measurement.

Please don't get off topic by posting incorrect material about science.

Everything is a probability.

That is false. Not everything is stochastic in nature.

More of your statements with nothing to back it up.

You haven't backed up any of your claims. Not everything is probabilistic. To say so is false. You may express it that way, but that does not make it so.

It is called realism.

Not true. Your inability to understand does not mean others do not.

You like to claim exactly what this comet will do based on repetition of events, well guess what - based on that same belief, based on repetition of human actions and predictions, I can say with utmost certainty that humans are incapable of determining the outcome of anything.

Another false claim. At least you are batting 1000. You are mixing up the concepts of probability with uncertainty. There is a big difference. You mention weather reports. That is irrelevant to the discussion. Weather is predicted using probabilities since the complex system is not as well understood or measured as astronomical events.

If you believe that science is anything more than educated guesswork, then you have obviously not payed attention to any scientific developments for the past two centuries.

Please provide an example so all of us can understand where you are confused.

Once again, your arrogance precedes you as you claim that you know ALL of the forces in outer space that might be acting on a comet.

The primary force is gravity. All other forces are minuscule. Next hard question please.

My claims are nothing more than possibilities and the burden of proof does not lie on me. This is my topic.

If you are going to speculate at least begin with something plausible, not the obviously false. If you think I have made a mistake someplace I would like you to point it out. You have done no more than attack me and not what I have pointed out is false.

Your ignorance makes you fail to realize that I don't really care about elenin whatsoever. Sure I have a passing interest because I read the topics, but you and many others obviously miss the point of this topic and continue to do so time and time again.

If you call me ignorant then please point out my errors. So far you do little more than attack me and have no effort whatsoever to back up any of your claims.

I am simply stating that the possibility is there.

The problem is that it is not a possibility.

reply to post by spock51

Why? Ya can't see the darn things without very specialized equipment.

Not true. It can be seen if it were close to our solar system because it would reflect light just as Jupiter reflects light. The problem with detecting a distant brown dwarf is that it is too far to reflect enough sunlight.

the other bodies in the system would likely be "used" to it

That's an interesting ideas, but that is not how gravity works. There is no getting used to gravity.

I would rather check multiple sources before I scream "liar".

Well stated.

reply to post by gwydionblack

Once again, science has been proven wrong time and time again, and I have no doubt that some of the things you people perceive as absolute 100% fact will be proven wrong in the future as well. This is a repeating story and it is not about to stop on account of us. /quote]
Please provide an example. You are likely to be confusing developing theories with the issue of uncertainty.

Except for the numerous times that comets HAVE collided with the Earth you mean? They are NEVER wrong... except for in those cases.

Can you give us an example of a comet collision with Earth? You appear to be misrepresenting the issue. I'm not surprised.

There it is. The scientific communities assumption, that once again, we account for everything that takes place in space and the universe, that we are somehow able to predict, with utmost certainty, that NOTHING will interfere with the orbit of a celestial body... even though *gasp* it has happened in the past. This is the "know-it-all" mentality that I spoke of in my OP.

You are purposely confusing independent events - yet another logical fallacy.

you insult me

Informing you of your mistakes is not an insult. If you are insulted, then avoid public forums where people point out mistakes.

People who so self righteously believe that their "science" is 100% accurate, fail to accept the fact that science was wrong many times in the past, even in recent times, and that science does not take in the chance or probability that something might affect whatever it is they are talking about. [/quotes]
Ranting such straw man arguments time and again does not provide support for your claims.

BUT, to flat out deny the possibility that something could affect the comet, that there is no chance whatsoever that something would change the outlook of where this thing is headed - that is big headed ignorance and it is running RAMPANT on ATS and in the academic world.

As I have pointed out several times an object moves because of the forces acting upon it. No force is out there to affect the motion of Elenin to cause us any danger.

Your continued tirade simply shows how little you understand about these matters. Science is a self correcting system. It questions everything - even what is believed to be well established. Please learn what probabilities really mean and then you can be a more informed poster.

There is no convincing the doomsday cultists...

Originally posted by DJW001
reply to post by Human0815

 

Imo. the whole　Elenin Story is a wonderful Case-Study for everyone who want to
get a Doctor-Title, maybe even a Professor !

I'm seriously considering writing a paper entitled: "Elenin-mania: Mass Hysteria in the Age of the Internet." Seriously.

It'd be a good one for the Pop Culture Association (I was a member once) -- make a great conference paper. I don't see it being meaty enough for a thesis or dissertation... you'd really have to work that one six ways from Monday to get anything more than a conference paper.

reply to post by gwydionblack


Ok I stopped at the part where you said "I despise ATS" so ah, why are you here then? Elenin is Elenin whatever it may be, just another rock or doom itself there is nothing we can do to help man kind if it's destined to destroy Earth itself. Why dont you go spend time with your friends and family while you can if your a firm believer instead of worrying about someone else not believing in Elenin being a doomsday comet!

reply to post by gwydionblack


I think you've done a compelling job with this thread.

The have been some suspicious actions on behalf of NASA that would make anyone at least wonder.....
I'm not going to repost them here..If people choose to simply ignore so be it...Is It Denial?....perhaps That's the answer? .... I don't think anything will come of this, but I'm realistic and understand it is a possibility.

Good Job! Star and flag for you..

Originally posted by filosophia
Elenin

Ele Nin

Eleven Nine

Nine Eleven.

Dooms day comet or whatever it is, code named elenin? Sounds too much of a coincidence.

It could also mean

Elenin

Ele Nin

Elephant Ninja

NINJA ELEPHANT!!!

Ninja Elephants or what ever they are? Sounds like too much of a coincidence.

lets face it, the elenin stuff has turned into a scam hasn't it

reply to post by Byrd

I don't see it being meaty enough for a thesis or dissertation... you'd really have to work that one six ways from Monday to get anything more than a conference paper.

I agree; I was thinking in terms of an article in "The Skeptical Inquirer."

Originally posted by DJW001
reply to post by gwydionblack

 

It is orbiting our Sun. What else could it possibly be orbiting? If you don't believe the orbital parameters are correct, then that just blows the "alignment" theory out of the water, doesn't it? All of those theories are based on the JPL's orbital visualizer, right? So who are you going to believe?

I think you misunderstood him! He means what is it orbiting around on it eleptical orbit besides our sun I think. If you notice on the JPL website it makes a very wide orbit around our sun, almost shooting in it a direction that you would think couldn't possibly come back around to our sun. I admit I could have misunderstood him and could completely wrong on my knowledge of my statement!

reply to post by Xcalibur254


He means mainstream media which they haven't reported on it much if any!

reply to post by uscitizen859


And even then Elenin is getting more attention than other comets of its size and magnitude. If a comet ends up in the MSM it's usually only because it has a chance of being a Great Comet. Elenin at least got kudos for being the first comet discovered by a Russian in 20 years (or was it 30?). On average about 100 new comets are discovered every year and on average none of them are covered by the MSM.

On a side note. Just so you know it is possible to create gold from other metals, but the cost to do so is too expensive.

Gold synthesis in a nuclear reactor. Gold was first synthesized from mercury by neutron bombardment in 1941, but the isotopes of gold produced were all radioactive.

Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury. Since platinum is more expensive than gold, platinum is economically unsuitable as a raw material.

Only the mercury isotope 196Hg, which occurs with a frequency of 0.15% in natural mercury, can be converted to gold by neutron capture, and following electron capture-decay into 197Au with slow neutrons. Other mercury isotopes are converted when irradiated with slow neutrons into one another or formed mercury isotopes, which beta decay into thallium.

Using fast neutrons, the mercury isotope 198Hg, which composes 9.97% of natural mercury, can be converted by splitting off a neutron and becoming 197Hg, which then disintegrates to stable gold. This reaction, however, possesses a smaller activation cross-section and is feasible only with un-moderated reactors.

It is also possible to eject several neutrons with very high energy into the other mercury isotopes in order to form 197Hg. However such high-energy neutrons can be produced only by particle accelerators.

Mercury 198 + 6.8MeV gamma ray ---> 1 neutron + Mercury 197 (half-life 2.7 days ---> Gold 197 + 1 positron)

Source: Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org...

In 1859 a comet went by quite similar to Elenin and on the same day we had the "Carrington Event", a big electrical event:

"Repeat of 1859 Carrington Event would devastate modern world, experts say" according to the National Geographic last March news.nationalgeographic.com...

Or read this: Solar Carrington Event Repeat Today Would Collapse Civilization
from Future Pundit written in 1992. www.futurepundit.com...

It's hard to deny the sun is suddenly waking up since Elenin hit perihelion. Who knows if the extent of it's interaction is over? And we've got another comet joining the picture soon.

Search the JPL Browser and look up 109P/Swift-Tuttle which just happened to be at perihelion on that September 1 date in 1859. Swift-Tuttle was also around here just last 1992, however, if you watch the diagram of JPL for the perihelion date, you will see it is no where near Earth. BUT in 1859 it is lined up very much the same as Elenin is lining up. except that is is coming from the opposite direction. There were some good earthquakes that year as well as a hefty storm, but not as clear that they were related, Swift-Tuttle doesn't align with other planets as Elenin does.

I'm not a hater,I'm a lover.
I wish I could see comet elenin in the skies at night,just like what I saw a few years back with comet Hale-Bopp.

Comet Hale–Bopp (formally designated C/1995 O1) was perhaps the most widely observed comet of the 20th century, and one of the brightest seen for many decades. It was visible to the naked eye for a record 18 months, twice as long as the previous record holder, the Great Comet of 1811. Hale–Bopp was discovered on July 23, 1995, at a great distance from the Sun, raising expectations that the comet would brighten considerably by the time it passed close to Earth. Although predicting the brightness of comets with any degree of accuracy is very difficult, Hale–Bopp met or exceeded most predictions when it passed perihelion on April 1, 1997. The comet was dubbed the Great Comet of 1997.

en.wikipedia.org...

But,sad to say,comet elenin is in destructo mode and forever gone down in history as the comet that never was.

Comet Elenin Self-Destructs

I guess all those pseudoscientific bloggers who predicted planet-altering encounters with a cosmic visitor bright enough to be seen in broad daylight will just have to find something else to worry about.

www.skyandtelescope.com...

As many readers already know, Comet Elenin has begun the irreversible process of breaking up.

spaceobs.org...

reply to post by ovumcranium

You cannot use the JPL applet for a cometary orbit that old.

This applet is provided as a 3D orbit visualization tool. The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

You'll see that if you use it for Halley's 1910 apparition the perihelion occurred on October 13. It actually occurred on April 20th. The applet is inaccurate over that time span. Very inaccurate.

Swift-Tuttle was discovered in July of 1862. It had nothing to do with the Carrington event.
en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by Phage

You'll see that if you use it for Halley's 1910 apparition the perihelion occurred on October 13. It actually occurred on April 20th. The applet is inaccurate over that time span. Very inaccurate. Swift-Tuttle was discovered in July of 1862. It had nothing to do with the Carrington event

???But the link you provided says this:

Potential threat to Earth The comet is on an orbit which puts it close to the Earth and the Moon.[7] Upon its 1992 rediscovery, the comet's date of perihelion passage was off from the then-current prediction by 17 days. It was then noticed that, if its next perihelion passage (August 14, 2126) was also off by another 15 days, the comet would very likely strike the Earth or Moon. Given the size of the nucleus of Swift–Tuttle, this was of some concern. This prompted amateur astronomer and writer Gary W. Kronk to search for previous apparitions of this comet. He found the comet was most likely observed by the Chinese in 69 BC and AD 188, which was quickly confirmed by Brian G. Marsden.[8] This information and subsequent observations have led to recalculation of its orbit, which indicates the comet's orbit is very stable, and that there is absolutely no threat over the next two thousand years.[9] Astronomers believe that in the 2126 pass it will likely be a great naked-eye comet like Hale–Bopp.[3]

Your link say the orbit is "VERY STABLE", so I still think that the two events are possibly related, since the discrepencies were of a nature less than a month. Aye? Cheers.

reply to post by ovumcranium

Swift-Tuttle was discovered almost three years after the Carrington event.
At the time of the Carrington event it would have been beyond the orbit of Saturn.