New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

reply to post by westcoast

Thank you,West Coast.
They had stated that the GPS/TEC increased over the area of Japan's earthquake days before the quake happened.

The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting on this day in the lower ionospheric there was also confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3‐11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground based ionosondes, which return to normal after the main earthquake. We found a positive correlation between the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the Tohoku earthquake. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake.

From this report that the video is based on.

arxiv.org...

Now,here is a link that provides live updates on the GPS/TEC maps.

Global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are produced in real-time (RT) by mapping GPS observables collected from ground stations. These maps are produced to test real-time data acquisition, monitoring facilities, and mapping techniques. The RT TEC mapping can provide accurate ionospheric calibrations to navigation systems.

iono.jpl.nasa.gov...

Thats a start,anyways.

reply to post by MamaJ


Thanks for the info. It was one of those things in so much stuff, I signed on the line and went about the inspection.

To the rest of every one, you guys are awesome. I will follow this all the way to the end, (45 days). I have and am learing so much. I have said it before and will say it again, this is better than any classroom. I like this approach to brainstorming and learning.

Thank you TM for bringing us together if nothing else.

reply to post by kdog1982


EXCELLENT!!! You and MamaJ have provided two possibly very big pieces to studying this.

NOW....here is the first problem. Not having any previous experience looking at this, I open the JPL link on the Ionosphere and my first reaction (in comparison the the japan map prior to their quake) is:

"Holy crap!"

NOTE: this is a screenshot of a current real-time image:



What does it normally look like??? I get a 404 when I try to look at previous maps.

reply to post by westcoast


Please check out what Don Rumsfield (haha) just posted in my noise thread....THIS sounds exactly like what I heard the first time I heard it....I am so excited about this! It's sand, but it's also soil movement....
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by westcoast


WOW WC.... That is some stuff right there.

When you google this "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism" you will find a lot of information!! I mean A LOT!

Also...check this out, not sure if it has been mentioned yet on this thread or another but it reads...

Looking to the sky in hopes of predicting an earthquake is not a new idea. The theory, which in science circles is called "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism," goes like this: Right before an earthquake, the stressed fault releases more gases, especially the colorless, odorless radon gas. Once in the upper-atmosphere ionosphere, the radon gas strips air molecules of their electrons, splitting them into negatively charged particles (the free electrons) and positively charged particles. These charged particles, called ions, attract condensed water in a process that releases heat. [Infographic: Tallest Mountain to Deepest Ocean Trench] And scientists can detect this heat in the form of infrared radiation. IN PICTURES: Japan's 9.0 earthquake Using satellite data, Ouzounov and his colleagues looked at what the atmosphere was doing in the days before the Japanese quake. They found that the concentration of electrons in the ionosphere increased in the days before the earthquake, as did infrared radiation. March 8, three days before the quake, was the most anomalous day, Ouzounov told LiveScience. [Read: The Science Behind Japan's Deadly Earthquake] The researchers have crunched data for more than 100 quakes in Asia and Taiwan, Ouzounov said, and have found similar correlations for earthquakes with magnitudes bigger than 5.5 and depths less than 31 miles (50 kilometers). The team is now working to involve researchers in Japan and worldwide, as ambitious atmosphere monitoring will take international effort, Ouzounov said.

Check the link out...there is more to the story and or findings.

www.csmonitor.com...

reply to post by westcoast

What you have to understand is they study that data over months or years and averaged it out.
So if you watch it everyday to see how and if it changes,and it does,then you might have an ideal.
We have lives and are,I heard this term before,citizen scientists.
A lot of data to crunch .

reply to post by westcoast


And ...here is something else that may be of interest.

The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space–Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory. Keywords: Radon; Tectonic fault; Thermal anomaly; Earthquake precursor

And the link to the paper....
www.sciencedirect.com...

Here is another really good read. See if you can open it and if you can....scan read it all ya want but at least read page 5!!

docs.google.com...:Xo-1lRKyKqgJ:citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.72.6203%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf+radon+ and+Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-fr3dQsp6NECeRR6o66HMWTPUVtKjfW98BOXkevoErceml-ubghAkF9H2EjXBnyD1N_gLh_OTprqDC9B sVazPJkM9x9XRA4DmucuT0mGFi6Q4SJ4iGlBTM5JToHQT38eFyALq&sig=AHIEtbRzdOofGkaAPjzQw3vin0BriMiQRQ

It's starting to happen.
Link to Santa Cruz county jail floor buckling.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by kdog1982






I don't feel so good

There have been 3 quakes in Cali, one in Alaska and one in Pakistan in the past 30 minutes...just FYI

Originally posted by StealthyKat
There have been 3 quakes in Cali, one in Alaska and one in Pakistan in the past 30 minutes...just FYI

I know....I feel like I am just hanging on the edge of my seat thinking something is going to happen. I know it sounds weird but after I saw the Myanmar quake I just felt like today may not be a good day in the EQ world..but it is coming to an end soon and hopefully that is all it is....just a feeling.

And then I see this!!!!!!!! Just NOW


Magnitude
6.8 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
Thursday, September 22, 2011 at 23:07:04 UTC
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:07:04 AM at epicenter
Location
14.967°S, 174.824°W
Depth
41.1 km (25.5 miles) set by location program
Region
SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances
356 km (221 miles) WSW (248°) from APIA, Samoa
419 km (260 miles) NNW (348°) from Neiafu, Tonga
450 km (280 miles) W (260°) from PAGO PAGO, American Samoa
2709 km (1684 miles) W (272°) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia
Location Uncertainty
Error estimate not available
Parameters
NST= 8, Nph=0, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=B
Source
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Event ID
pt11265001

reply to post by MamaJ


....and that floor in Santa Cruz just thrusting up all the sudden....that was odd.

reply to post by MamaJ


Seems things are picking up again...

reply to post by StealthyKat


Yes they are! I am really hoping there is not more to come. This day has been a strange one and coming into the weekend....I just hope and pray nothing gets worse in regards to EQ's.

This is how some of the predictive capabilities have evolved, not the date on this publication:

Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.

They take a simulated earthquake, and then data for an earthquake that is as close as possible to the same as what was simulated and then blend the data. This allows them come closer to the actual event which then can be fed back into a simulation to further refine the outcomes. They have what are termed "clones" which are separate concurrent runs of the simulation each with different data set synchronized to the clone. Think spaghetti models like are used in earthquake forecasting, but for earthquakes.

The publication also compares the simulation to the M8 (and variants) algorithm, the next step (as of the publication date) is to blend the simulation models with the algorithmic prediction methods to arrive at an evr more accurate "alarm set."

Medium - long term earthquake prediction by the use of the oscillating electric field (T = 365 days) generated due to Earth's orbit around the Sun and due to its consequent oscillating lithospheric deformation

We study the Earth's electric field monitored at PYR (Greece) monitoring site, for a period of more than six years (May 23rd, 2003 to September 7th, 2009). It is compared, in particular its oscillating component of T = 365 days, with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the same component of the Earth's magnetic field, with the corresponding same period tidal oscillation and with the occurred large EQs of the same period of time. The obtained results suggest that the oscillating electric field component is generated by large scale piezoelectricity triggered by the Earth's shape - lithospheric oscillating deformation. The driving mechanism (yearly tidal variation) precedes the Aphelion - Perihelion dates for a month complying with the corresponding tidal friction behavior of the Earth's shape deformation. The Earth's oscillating electric field peaks coincide with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates while the triggered large EQs are clustered very close to the Perihelion - Aphelion dates. Moreover it is shown that the observed Earth's oscillating electric field is not related to or induced by the corresponding Earth's magnetic field. In conclusion, the Earth's oscillating electric field character could be used as medium to long term electric seismic precursor of large EQs.

This represents another avenue of investigation we can pursue. When i get home tonight, I plan on digging in with what WC has suggested in tandem with the topics I've covered.

Great work everyone!

Wow guys and gals.....after reading the last three or four pages, I believe I just had a mindgasam

Keep up the good work WC,Jaded, and all you other good folk on this thread

reply to post by kdog1982

Santa Cruz county jail floor buckling

Interesting, maybe earthquake related,
sink hole is going to open up or some
jail mates have made a tunnel under
the floor.

Off topic.
I may have to leave because my wife seems to think this might be some undercover dating site.
Especially after seeing StealthyKats avatar!
Sigh.
She as become what is known as an ATS widow.
Addicted,as I am,I must curb my obsession with this site.
I might need an intervention.

Ok, I'm going to make this post. I came across the TEC connection and both the Dimitar Ouzounov articles and the Kosuke Heki study last Thursday. I didn't want to post b/c I didn't understand what it all meant and I was trying to compose a coherent post.

I was pretty sure there was a connection but I couldn't put it all together. I bring this up b/c of the "how" I got to these articles. I don't know if this is going to be right or not but here goes. I think TM may be the NOAA Research Chemist Anne Middlebrook or A.M. Middlebrook. I know it's crazy to think the name would be real (don't know about the "t") but here is the thread.

Ann Middlebrook - Research Chemist, Cloud & Aerosol Processes for NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL).
NASA > NOAA's partners
NASA>JPL>GESS & SESWG

From the beginning of TM's posts it seemed TM was "around" the information, on the outside but aware.

She has participated in and done many of her own studies. She travels for these studies. Her latest had to do with the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

The first TM post notes:

this is an email exchange from my boss regarding some research from an organization that is connected to jpl in pasadena, ca. this place is a buzz right now with new info. i've had to protect identities so i x'd out names and emails, and i don't exactly know what the info is.

From this I get that the organization connected to JPL is GESS

Further in that same post are the emails.

Subject: Re: M8

Just got here. Heading to (XXXX) office now. Current calcs in hand... hope it's not on the larger end.
Meet me in there.
-----------------------
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 5:07 PM, xxxxxxx wrote:
Absolutely. I'm concerned that we may be jumping the gun? do we NOT say anything and let it play out for another week or two?

We knew this was a possibility..

We're for sure, right?
------------------------
On Aug 25, 2011, at 4:55 PM, xxxxxx wrote:

Ugh. None really. We have to think this thru and make sure to not send alarm bells.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
------------------------
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 4:54 PM,xxxxxxxx wrote:
Is the plan to send an alert or something? What protocol do we have for this anyway?
------------------------
Afraid so. Just spoke to (XXXX), we’re gathering shortly to discuss. On my way in now.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
------------------------
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 4:53 PM, xxxxxxxxxx wrote:

Hi A(XXXX),
Did we really just get this report??

Note the hanging "A" that I guess was missed. The Director for the Chemical Sciences Division is Dr. A.R. Ravishankara...Ann Middlebrooks boss.

There is more rolling around my head on this but I can't get it all together so I'll leave it for now with ....this all may be way off base and I just created the connection where there is none.