Forget Elenin, why does no one speak of Asteroid YU55?

reply to post by SatoriTheory

Possible impact. NOT confirmed. I suggested they would not give out impact data along time ahead of the event.

Apophis is a possible sea impact. It is NOT a confirmed sea impact.
A sea impact is not the same as a land impact.
A habitated land impact is not the same as a desert impact.

They all have different effects that need to be taken into consideration.

A sea impact is a lot worse than a land impact. It will kill more.

I simply stated they would not release impact data a long time ahead of the event.

I said they would not make the data public.

That is correct. You based on this musings about economic impact.

I am not wrong yet, there is no confirmed impact data in public domain.

This is your justification for you musings? The musings were poor and your argument here is just as poor.

I have given perfectly valid reasons why NASA would withold impact data, and they are valid reasons. And you can see they are valid, unless ofcourse you are just trolling.

Your ideas are not valid.

Let's return to the original issue which are the following musings.

Let's say NASA announces 10 years ahead of time of a high probability impact within the mid-US. What happens to property prices? Crash. As soon as it is announced, property prices are worth zero. You can't sell up and move. So who pays for you to move? What about businesses in the impact area? Are they going to stay and wait, or will they move? If they move, people will have to move. The area becomes a waste land. For those who stay, is it worth paying insurance any more? Will insurance prices sky-rocket?

Let's take the mid-US impact scenario. Suppose that an impact has a high probability. It is not definite just as in the Apophis through the keyhole scenario that you are whining about.

Do property values crash as soon as the possible impact is announced? NO. That would only be true under what scenario? Under the scenario that nothing could be done about it. So now there are 10 years to attempt some sort of stop the impact effort.

Suppose the destruction were 10 trillion dollars immediate damage and 100 trillion long term. Don't you think that NASA would get a sudden influx of cash to make an attempt to prevent the disaster?

Instead of pretending nothing is going to happen NASA would be asking for and obtaining hundreds of billions of dollars to make an attempt to stop the disaster.

Your musings do not look at the big picture which is to protect your investment when disaster looms.

More to the point, has anyone mentioned YU58 just discovered on the 25th September 2011 and passing much closer than YU55 on the 27th September 2011 estimated at 0.0016 (AU) with some reports now at 0.0007 (AU)

reply to post by Seagle


YU58 was discovered by LINEAR in 2003.

You can check here for close encounters with space rocks
spaceweather.com...

sorry, I meant SE58

Originally posted by stereologist
A sea impact is a lot worse than a land impact. It will kill more.

You should get in contact with NASA, they could use someone as knowledgable as you. [/sarcasm]

That is correct. You based on this musings about economic impact.

Not just economic, but primarily, seeing as that is the type of world we live in. You also have to consider how, where and when to move people.

This is your justification for you musings? The musings were poor and your argument here is just as poor.

No. I fully justified/explained myself every step of the way.

Your ideas are not valid.

My opinions are valid.

st.

reply to post by Seagle


That is in the spacewatch list and is passing by around 0.6LD away.

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by Seagle

 

YU58 was discovered by LINEAR in 2003.

You can check here for close encounters with space rocks
spaceweather.com...

edit on 26-9-2011 by stereologist because: (no reason given)

I know, as I said, I meant SE58 not YU58

Close approach on the 27th Sep 2011 at 0.0016 AU

SE58 info

Thats only 0.6 LD

reply to post by SatoriTheory


Your opinion is your opinion. It is based on incomplete thinking. Your claims are flawed as I have shown.

The evidence clearly suggests that NASA would reveal an impact.

reply to post by Seagle


Thanks for the excellent link. I was trying to figure out when SE58 had been discovered, but could get nothing better than the word recent.

reply to post by stereologist

The evidence clearly suggests that NASA would reveal an impact.

Just out of curiosity...

What is the window (duration of time) for which NASA would announce a confirmed impact?

Months before?

Weeks before?

Days before?

Hours before?

An hour or two before?

Choose your answer carefully.

Originally posted by stereologist
Your opinion is your opinion. It is based on incomplete thinking. Your claims are flawed as I have shown.

You have shown nothing. My thinking is based on a confirmed impact.

However, YOU keep on refering to a POSSIBLE impact. They are not the same thing.

The evidence clearly suggests that NASA would reveal an impact.

Email them and ask them.

But remember, it's not just up to NASA, there are more countries on this planet than just the US of A.

st.

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by Seagle

 

That is in the spacewatch list and is passing by around 0.6LD away.

Yes thats LD, not AU. That is only 143,314 miles which is extremely, extremely close. They only found it two days ago so these calculations are best estimates at this stage.

reply to post by Seagle


Thanks for the link. I too was a bit confused as to where this new asteroid came from.

I wonder if anyone will get any pictures of this newly discovered asteroid as it passes tomorrow!

reply to post by SonoftheSun


It depends on the size of the object, the detection, and the uncertainty in the measurements.

reply to post by SatoriTheory


You can stop whining and admit that you have no evidence or reasonable line of thinking that suggests an impact would be hidden.

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

You can stop whining and admit that you have no evidence or reasonable line of thinking that suggests an impact would be hidden.

Whining?

Try trolling elsewhere.

st.

reply to post by stereologist


Well...that's some great diplomatic answer right there....

and the uncertainty in the measurements.

Wouldn't that just support the point I was talking about in the YU55 trajectory ?

But it's all good, I will agree to disagree, with all due respect.

reply to post by SatoriTheory


Thanks for the trollish admittance of being wrong.

reply to post by SonoftheSun

Wouldn't that just support the point I was talking about in the YU55 trajectory ?

But it's all good, I will agree to disagree, with all due respect.

The issue is the degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty in YU55 is low enough that your scenarios are not possible. The problem is the extrapolation to years in the future with a long distance orbit and a large number of factors. That is not the case with YU55 when it passes the Earth in the near future.