There Are Some MAJOR Discrepancies in the Orbit Projections of ELEnin

Originally posted by Illustronic
reply to post by CaptainInstaban

 

How can anyone say for sure the sun is going to rise tomorrow?

I can play that game too!

Since your reply doesn´t even compare with what I was saying, I assume you didn´t understand my point at all.

That deviation was caused by the previous calculation being made when we had only been watching Elenin for 3 months.

reply to post by CLPrime


Well, wasn´t NASA sure it wasn´t going to hit us after only watching it for 3 months, how could they be sure then?

Currently, we've been observing its motion for 8 months. This is more than enough time to extrapolate its orbit with absolute certainty.

But once again, wasn´t NASA claiming that it wouldn´t hit us from the beginning.

So I asked earlier, is the closest predicted distance from Earth, bigger than the deviation this thread is about? Don´t you know the answer, or do you find it not important?

Ok, so the closest approach is, if I found the right data, 0.234 au.

The deviation was 0.229 au.

Doesn´t that mean that the amount of distance they were off on, is about the same distance that seperated it from Earth in earlier predictions?

So once again, doesn´t this prove that they actaully had no way of being sure that it wouldn´t hit Earth?

NASA is taking questions and providing answers concerning Comet Elenin...It might help ?
www.nasa.gov...#

Originally posted by Hillbilly123069

Originally posted by violet
I have no thoughts because I'm not an expert.
Are you?

But I'm sure others like me - who have no clue, will S& F your thread

edit on 11-8-2011 by violet because: (no reason given)

edit on 11-8-2011 by violet because: (no reason given)

I would like to comment on the following of 'experts'. Experts and professionals are what put us where we are today. And to what end? I'm sick of following the experts.

edit on 12-8-2011 by Hillbilly123069 because: (no reason given)

Bravo for that.

I'm still a little confused. Is there a reason given in the other hundred or so Elenin threads as to why the NASA Orbit Diagram tool is used to see if Elenin will hit Earth?

The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances. For accurate long-term ephemerides, please instead use our Horizons system.

This seems like a "planetary encounter" situation. Has an amateur astronomer on ATS already tried and explained the results of the Horizons system for predicting Elenins path? Is the Orbit Diagram tool actually expected to be accurate in this case and I'm missing something.

Someone previously pointed out in this thread that NASA can send probes to asteroids and the challenge thereof so why can't they pin down Elenin's path...but I don't think NASA plots their own trajectories with the Orbit Diagram applet. They probably use supercomputers and physicists to account for all the various things that can affect an orbit right?

It's too late at night for me to try to learn the Horizons system, maybe tomorrow...

I have just read through this thread and thought to myself ............. So What !!

If it hit's then it hits..end of........!
If it misses then it misses................ i think we as a species regardless how 'deep' we burrow into the Earth, we will not survive a direct strike.... BOB and other assorted survival equipment will not really matter.......

What DOES matter, is that we live our lives TODAY and everyday.... ...... as a signature I saw recently on ATS said.......... "It's not that life is too short BUT that we are dead for a long long time"

Go and live your live and enjoy yourselves................. and stop worrying about something we cannot affect !

Regards

PDUK

reply to post by CaptainInstaban

You might want to read the OP in this thread (from January):
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Now today the orbital calculation is down to 0.24 Au with a minimum as low as 0.15. This is being re-calculated all the time and could get even closer but it depends what it encounters in the Oort belt.

An interesting post in that same thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Close approach was never calculated at 0.463 AU. Close approach has been refined over the months (with more observations) but it has always continued to fall within the margin of error which is now very slight. There has not been a major deviation.

reply to post by CaptainInstaban


Of course their isn't an iron-clad lead pipe lock that it or any other celestial body will not smash into Earth. If it gets closer to a planet or the Sun, the gravity could affect the orbit one way or the other. It the Cosmic Butterfly Effect if you will.

However, since NASA employs people who are very knowledgeable in science, math, physics, etc...they can, to a large degree, accurately predict the projected orbit of celestial bodies to within a very small margin of error. Of course the closer the object is to Earth, the more accurately they can predict the orbit. This is why the distance between Elenin and Earth changes, but notice that the date of the closest distance also changes. So is Elenin going to collide with Earth? Probably not. Could it? It's possible.

reply to post by PurpleDog UK


GREATEST. POST. EVER!

Thanks Phang for digging that info up on that marathon thread. I knew the data stated in the OP was not what I remember from way back, though I had little interest in Elenin back in January. So the current trajectory of Elenin hasn't changed much since a bit over a month of observation from discovery. That's what I though.

When extraordinary claims are made I first try to find out what the credibility is of source making the claim, the history of topics written about and their views of such. It didn't take long to figure out that elenin.org established in 2011 already had enough history of the topics to deduct the site is pure speculation and very little science. I fail to understand what effects the beliefs of the Hopi Indians have of comet trajectories.

To captianinstaban. If NASA can't figure out orbital dynamics to the degree you site then how can they send space probes to the orbit of Saturn, Jupiter, asteroids, and a close approach to Pluto? Things you say cannot accurately be determined have in fact been extremely accurate for over 40 years of applications on spacecrafts. The fact we cannot see all of the bodies in the main asteroid belt and how any of those may perturb the trajectory of a comet after just a month of observation is one reason why the JPL states their calculations are preliminary and not to be used as pinpoint accurate, from an organization that would consider 0.001º% difference an extreme error (not 200%) that would send Cassini to miss Saturn by measurements that could be stated in AU distances.

Regarding the JPL diagram for october 16th,does anyone know where our Moon will be positioned as Elenin makes its closest pass?
Thanx!

reply to post by scobro


The moon will be in orbit of the earth, where else would it be? if your thinking of a lunar impact dont worry, it wont come close enough. The only worry should be the debris left from its coma when we cross through its wake,. should make for some interesting showers if you have a telescope and your one the right side of the planet.

I think this sums it up

1.bp.blogspot.com...

cheers

Does any one have any information on the composition and size of Elenin ? I read that it's diameter is only
3-4 km but doing the math i have it comming out quite a bit bigger. if its size is only 3-4km im perdicting a impact with one mercury's satalites ( this is just fun guess ). but if its as big as my poor math skills have being roughly 5300km im still perdicting a collision with a mercury satalite but heres the kicker after the impact being tidal locked to the sun lol. but on a serious note actual size and composition and if you can what gases are its coma made off.


Thanks alot

reply to post by Phage


Three people replied to my post, yet again, no one actually adressed the point I was making.

Off course, Phage, you had all sorts of links, but didn´t give a direct clear answer

Close approach was never calculated at 0.463 AU. Close approach has been refined over the months (with more observations) but it has always continued to fall within the margin of error which is now very slight. There has not been a major deviation.

So, what are you saying, is that the OP is wrong.

Is this deviation that is slight, according to you, of smaller distance than the closest Earth approach?

Meaning, if it would deviate this much on the closest approach, could it hit Earth? Do you understand what I´m trying to say?

To captianinstaban. If NASA can't figure out orbital dynamics to the degree you site then how can they send space probes to the orbit of Saturn, Jupiter, asteroids, and a close approach to Pluto? Things you say cannot accurately be determined have in fact been extremely accurate for over 40 years of applications on spacecrafts

reply to post by Illustronic


It doesn´t matter how many examples you give of their accuracy.

My point is based on the alleged deviation in the predicted course. It seems the deviation is as big, if not bigger than the distance of the closest Earth approach, meaning the deviation shows that they can´t be sure it won´t hit Earth, since if it would deviate that much, it could already hit us.

I´m not worried at all, this was just sticking out to me.

Maybe someone could give an actual answer instead of coming up with irrelevant information.

We understand what you are trying to say but you fail to understand the source you sited simply made up the numbers, as you see nearly 3 months before they said JPL was off by 200% when they put up no such thing. I understand one can use time machine to go back and view the source, have you done this?

And how do the Hopi Indians change comet trajectories?

reply to post by scobro
Good morning ATS members that is a great question about the position! Scary to think if BIG BAD Elenin hits the moon.The moon has taking a beating in the past and it could help with deflecting debris from hitting earth or all hell breaks loose..really does anybody know our fate? I like the moon i would miss it if it was split in half or destroyed..what would you look at in the nite sky with your honey holding hands?

This is what CLPrime posted,

That is a huge difference when you put it in kilometers like that. But, that's just 0.229 AU - a 49.46% change. That's a perfectly reasonable change in orbital calculations for a comet that had only been observed for 3 months as of March.

So the deviation in the prediction was 0.229 AU.

Now today the orbital calculation is down to 0.24 Au with a minimum as low as 0.15. This is being re-calculated all the time and could get even closer but it depends what it encounters in the Oort belt.

Is this the closest predicted approach or not?

If it is, the deviation in the predictid distance is bigger than the-Earth distance of closest approach today.

To me it seems if they were off by that much, it could be on course with Earth, within that same deviation.

So how could they be sure, in the beginning, if the apperently normal deviation allows for a possible earth course?


If I´m completely off, please correct me.

Something's screwy. And no, the orbit calculations have not changed that much.

reply to post by Phage


Since you are aware of them, could you post, or guide me towards the exact orbital predictions over the months, and the corrections.'

Thank you.