2011 Global Stock Market Collapse Watch

reply to post by Shenon


From what I read in the news, most financial institutions are pretty much out of ammo. MarketWatch ran a poll recently about the latest market slump. 22% showed they had had enough and liquidated their portfolio while an additional 19% had trimmed hedges and holdings. About 20% re-invested into the gold market while 40% were like 'a deer in the headlights'. My guess is most daytraders have jumped ship and the institutions are left with the scraps and scams that got them in this situation in the first place
There is no way at all that we can pay our debts since the global debt is grossly larger than the money supply.

GASOLINE RBOB FUT (USd/gal.) 279.600 -4.520 -1.59% 12:02
HEATING OIL FUTR (USd/gal.) 288.610 -1.840 -0.63% 12:02


This is whats wrong with the STOCK MARKET.

And for anyone who can not understand this,,

200 gal Oil Tank,, to heat your house,,per month,

at a higher price than gas for your car.


Todays Price Nova Scotia

approx. 1.25/litre 930 litres (200 gallons )equals approx.

$1,000 a month to maintain. heat in the WINTER time.

ohh fuel oil cost approx. .10 cents a litre,, at the source,, or barrel,,fuel oil is the garbage left from,, cracking.


This is whats wrong with the STOCK MARKET.
Ohh
and this also applies too DIESLE fuel,, for all the trucks,, which ship your food by the way.
Thats if there are any "truckers" left.

reply to post by BobAthome


We're coming up on winter too and many folks are 'loading up' for it. The people who owned this house before me heated with a gas (LP) stove. No heat pump. He told me he paid over $1600 to heat his home over the winter. We promptly removed the stove and replaced it with a wood burner. I'm sure the kerosene costs are still high as those heaters are pretty common too. The energy barons got ya either way, but I have plenty of fallen trees around here

reply to post by OuttaTime


125 a cord?,, last time i looked,,cut,,might have been split,, but dont think so,, its fun

and yes,, if u think of it as a top down, or today, trickle all over you theory,,"dang nab it, dont need no fancy car,,
but i do need too stay warm in the winter,,,

please mister oilman,,, may i have more pudding?

Originally posted by BobAthome
reply to post by OuttaTime

 

125 a cord?,, last time i looked,,cut,,might have been split,, but dont think so,, its fun

and yes,, if u think of it as a top down, or today, trickle all over you theory,,"dang nab it, dont need no fancy car,,
but i do need too stay warm in the winter,,,

please mister oilman,,, may i have more pudding?

It's about $60/cord here (got it for $50 last winter), but I have access to 400 acres of woodland, a chainsaw, and a truck

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c980c6ae24f6.gif[/atsimg]

I pity those whom had thought gold would be a safe hedge.

Gold would only be a safe hedge when war breaks out. Mankind had came a long way since WW2. NONE wants a war unless forced into it. But there are NO likely wars in the horizon. Plenty of sabre-rattling perhaps, skirmishes here and there perhaps.

That gold drive had been because of only loss of economic confidence. However a basic fundamental still exists in economy - mankind still have needs to be met and our planet had NOT run of resources, not for another few million years espacially now with more advance tech to manage them.

Many of the troubled economies in Europe-gov and banks do have gold holdings. Once the market collapses as it will soon, those banks will be liquidated and their gold will be the first to be sold to return depositors as they would have little or no cash left. Those govs will be QUICK to sell gold, at its current prices so as to have cash to run their economies again, no contractor will accept gold in bulk for payment to their subcontractors or workers, and then the gold market will BOMB immediately. There is nothing to support the gold market itself - no human capital, no other resources, no gov backing, unlike US treasuries back by all and might as well.

When that happens, those who went into ponzi gold markets will be the suckers at $1900 or $2000 an ounce, and will see within hours how it drop back to $300 an ounce. Those who sold quick will be the lucky ones, but it will only be few to be that lucky, the rest are gonners.

Take care guys. THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR GOLD.

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101

I hope you're being sarcastic. Gold is being bought because people are losing faith in fiat currencies and want something physical and tangible with an actual value. While I agree there might be a 10-20% correction eventually, gold at $300, at least in the next couple years and while the dollar is still weak, is probably a pipe dream.

However, I'm much more a silver bug than a gold bug. There's much less above-ground silver than gold, and much of what is above ground, is consumed for industrial uses, while gold is stored. Yet still, gold is at $1900 and silver is at $44. Doesn't quite seem right...

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101


There will be a rude awakening for sure. 170,000 tons of gold = 6,300 tons of platinum (global totals), yet they're the same price. It blows the scarcity theory out the window

The price of money (debt) is actually close to decades high. This is understandable since the world is absolutely drowning in oversupply, overcapacity and endless supply of cheap labor. In a free marketplace, governed by forces of supply and demand, the price of commodities would undoubtedly collapse by 50-80%. To understand how big money manipulates this situation to the hilt google

Goldman Sachs warehouse business.

Originally posted by OuttaTime
reply to post by SeekerofTruth101

 

There will be a rude awakening for sure. 170,000 tons of gold = 6,300 tons of platinum (global totals), yet they're the same price. It blows the scarcity theory out the window

170,000 tons of gold = 6,300 tons of platinum = 31,000 total tons of silver = 3100 available tons of silver

There may be one billion ounces of silver in existence, currently worth $11 billion, but there may be only 50 to 100 million ounces, or $500 million to $1 billion available for sale in any given year. Not $11 billion.

link

Silver should not be at $44, it's worth much more.

reply to post by mossme89


I was thinking that too. Silver has fluctuated less than $1/oz for days. Really odd.

Here's a chart so we can contemplate the 'pricing' of gold. I always knew they had the decimal point 1 place too far. .076 cents is about right, not 0.76 cents to the dollar.

reply to post by mossme89


Yet, given the deflationary forces that I mentioned and the resulting decades high price of money (debt) it doesn´t seem to make much sense to hoard anything, except maybe cash. Why would you accumulate something that is in oversupply to what buys it (money).

Originally posted by OuttaTime
reply to post by mossme89

 

I was thinking that too. Silver has fluctuated less than $1/oz for days. Really odd.

Here's a chart so we can contemplate the 'pricing' of gold. I always knew they had the decimal point 1 place too far. .076 cents is about right, not 0.76 cents to the dollar.

edit on 22-8-2011 by OuttaTime because: (no reason given)

Thanks for the chart! Here's a chart of silver (link). I think the reason people are skittish to get in is because of the massive drop-off in May after margin requirements were raised 4 times in 8 days. But I have a feeling silver may soon make another run at $50. The price of gold is going parabolic, so people might turn to silver, or silver might get dragged up in the process. Either way, silver broke through some key resistance levels today and friday, and could soon close in on $50.

Originally posted by galdur
reply to post by mossme89

 

Yet, given the deflationary forces that I mentioned and the resulting decades high price of money (debt) it doesn´t seem to make much sense to hoard anything, except maybe cash. Why would you accumulate something that is in oversupply to what buys it (money).

Often times, deflation can lead to hyperinflation, which could potentially occur if the gov't steps in with more stimulus or the debt situation spirals out of control.

reply to post by mossme89


I fail to see how extreme oversupply, incredible overcapacity, a technological still rising tsunami and totally endless supply of cheap labor can result in hyperinflation in the next decades. These deflationary waves are still rising and will be for a long time to come.

New-home sales fall, 2011 could be worst year yet

3 minutes ago

By DEREK KRAVITZ
AP Real Estate Writer

(AP:WASHINGTON) The number of people who bought new homes fell for the third straight month in July, putting sales on track to finish this year as the worst on records dating back half a century.

Sales of new homes fell nearly 1 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That's less than half the 700,000 that economists say represent a healthy market.

Housing remains the weakest part of the economy. Last year was the worst for new-home sales on records that go back nearly 50 years.

While new homes represent less than one-fifth of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs and $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Analysts said the report was further proof that the housing market is stuck in the doldrums.

"How much longer can we flat-line on housing?" said M. Cary Leahey, senior economist at Decision Economics.

All types of home sales remain weak. Sales of previously occupied homes fell in July for the third time in four months, and they are trailing last year's 4.91 million sales, the fewest since 1997. In a healthy economy, people buy roughly 6 million existing homes annually.

High unemployment, larger required down payments and tougher lending standards are preventing many people from buying homes.

Plunging stocks and a growing fear that the U.S. could tip back into another recession are also keeping people from entering the troubled housing market.

A report last week on sales of previously owned homes showed that more sales than usual fell apart at the last minute, a sign that many buyers may be nervous about the economy. At least 16 percent of deals were canceled head of closings last month _ four times the rate in May.

Foreclosures and short sales are forcing down prices. A short sale is when a lender accepts less than what is owed on the mortgage.

Those homes are selling at an average discount of 20 percent, and they lower neighboring values. That's made many re-sales a bargain compared with new homes, creating an average 30 percent disparity in prices.

Sales of new homes doubled in the Northeast in July, but the region has the weakest sales in the country by far. In the South and West, sales fell 7.4 and 5.9 percent, respectively. Sales rose 2.4 percent in the Midwest.

The median price of a new home fell more than 6 percent to $222,000 nationally. But it is still roughly 27.5 percent higher than the median price of a re-sold home, which was $174,000 in July.

The number of new homes for sale at the end of the month dropped to a record low of 165,000, down 0.6 percent from June. At the July sales pace, it would take 6.6 months to exhaust the current supply. Economists consider a 6-month supply a normal level, indicating that builders are heavily cutting back construction.

Sales of new homes have fallen 18 percent in the two years since the Great Recession officially ended.

A telling sign of how bad things have gotten for the housing industry: Prices have dropped more since the recession started, on a percentage basis, than during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

And it took 19 years for prices to fully recover after the Depression.

The news of drop in housing sales is ONLY bad news if one is clueless on how to rectify the situation. And the Obama Administration is not clueless.

1. With the debt ceiling raised, it means the gov will have enough funds to circulate it in the economy, NOT TO THE BANKS THIS TIME, and improve the infrastructure of the nation, to either tear it down, replace those buildings, roads, lamps, power generators, etc, with better tech or use the land for more productive purposes and save public costs, or just enhance them so that it will attract more investments to create jobs and triple the GDP in a few years time.

For States looking for federal funding to create employment, they MUST prove that those funds will be able to give returns. NO MORE will it be use to bail out too big to fail corps or build 'white elephants'. EVERY dollar borrowed must be fully accounted for, discuss and debated by many for its viability before the first plan is drawn up so that not a cent is wasted.

It will mean a MASSIVE rise in the contruction industry for years, and no longer dependent on housing for GDP boost.


2. The US gov will just have to wait for the banks to collapse, then when liquidation comes, buys up those foreclosed properties cheap, which means now the US gov will become the major landowner instead of the banks.

Being the landowner on behalf of THE PEOPLE, thus the gov has a responsibility to resources of both human and land. The land can be leased to the foreclosed person for a period of years instead of freehold, such as 30 yrs or 99 yrs, with money and interest still rolling in, to the treasury this time.

That way, under lease, the new owner will pay lesser instead of sleeping in the streets with his family. With a lower payment, his can thus take on a lower salary, and focus on both family and carreer.

The family is the nucleas and building blocks of ALL societies. If govs fail to take care of the family, then they would have failed to build a society, let alone build an economic entity. And US would not fail on this aspect for sure.

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101


It´s not so much that they´re clueless but more that their hands are pretty much tied

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/23ba921bd265.gif[/atsimg]

This pie shows spending of 3.8 trillion dollars. This is versus income of 2.5 trillion. So, social security and defense consume together about 120% of federal income, probably even more since the unfunded endless wars and god knows what else are off balance sheet. When you have such a huge funding gap you don´t have much if any room for economic stimulus.

Here´s another pretty staggering image for you to ponder:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b0b74d39e0a2.gif[/atsimg]

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
The news of drop in housing sales is ONLY bad news if one is clueless on how to rectify the situation. And the Obama Administration is not clueless.

1. With the debt ceiling raised, it means the gov will have enough funds to circulate it in the economy, NOT TO THE BANKS THIS TIME, and improve the infrastructure of the nation, to either tear it down, replace those buildings, roads, lamps, power generators, etc, with better tech or use the land for more productive purposes and save public costs, or just enhance them so that it will attract more investments to create jobs and triple the GDP in a few years time.

For States looking for federal funding to create employment, they MUST prove that those funds will be able to give returns. NO MORE will it be use to bail out too big to fail corps or build 'white elephants'. EVERY dollar borrowed must be fully accounted for, discuss and debated by many for its viability before the first plan is drawn up so that not a cent is wasted.

It will mean a MASSIVE rise in the contruction industry for years, and no longer dependent on housing for GDP boost.


2. The US gov will just have to wait for the banks to collapse, then when liquidation comes, buys up those foreclosed properties cheap, which means now the US gov will become the major landowner instead of the banks.

Being the landowner on behalf of THE PEOPLE, thus the gov has a responsibility to resources of both human and land. The land can be leased to the foreclosed person for a period of years instead of freehold, such as 30 yrs or 99 yrs, with money and interest still rolling in, to the treasury this time.

That way, under lease, the new owner will pay lesser instead of sleeping in the streets with his family. With a lower payment, his can thus take on a lower salary, and focus on both family and carreer.

The family is the nucleas and building blocks of ALL societies. If govs fail to take care of the family, then they would have failed to build a society, let alone build an economic entity. And US would not fail on this aspect for sure.

edit on 23-8-2011 by SeekerofTruth101 because: (no reason given)

Wow talk about living in fantasy land... I have some Everglades land in Florida I will make you a good deal on...