Simple Maths in order to understand why we’re done

Here is an extract from the excellent “Debt clock”
US DEBT CLOCK

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0782692ab676.jpg[/atsimg]

We are going to take two numbers : 31% of the GDP as “Revenue” and 47% of the GDP as “Expenses” or “Spending”.
We suppose that year 1 has no history before (that is simplistic, but allows simple reasoning)
Here is a spreadsheet for 10 years on (Figure 1), supposing that the growing rate of the spending is yearly 1.75% and of the revenue is 1.50%. Those are quite conservative rates.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/193bdc891c10.jpg[/atsimg]

You see that the deficit grows, from 16% of the GDP to 19% of the GDP.
But this is a false view : In order to spend 47 when you have 31, you must borrow 16.
Then, you must pay-back the borrowings. (Hypothesis : average loan rate of 3.5%)
So the spreadsheet becomes this one (Figure 2) :

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d1864a5ad261.jpg[/atsimg]

The “Debt load” is what is spent yearly in order to pay-back the borrowings.
You see that ten years after, the debt load is equal to the whole revenue of year one !
The debt is equal to 300% of the GDP.

Notice that this is the result of a gap of only 0.25% between the growing rate of the spending versus the revenu’s.

Let’s be optimistic : we now suppose that the growing rate of the revenue is THREE times the spending’s. Here is the result :

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a6f41aea24e5.jpg[/atsimg]

You see that even in this (very) optimistic figure, the yearly debt load 10 years after is 25% of the GDP and the debt 250% of the GDP.

Conclusion : we are plunging down like a stale plane.

Suppose now, that we are like Greece, in a profound crisis, and due to international pressure, we diminish yearly the expense yearly by 10%, the revenue plunges down yearly by 5% (due to exploding unemployment), the loan rate goes up to 6.5% (State bonds becoming Junk bonds).

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/87b5e14bb1ff.jpg[/atsimg]

The deficit GROWS from 11 to 15, the debt GROWS to 110% of the GDP.

This situation is unsustainable without defaulting.

Look at this terrible and actual evidence :

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/69a8841b110e.jpg[/atsimg]

This is 360% of the GDP.
Take care …

So what exactly is the US spending its money one other than WAR, WAR and more WAR?

I understand your infrastructure is falling to bits and the US is not that good at supporting its poorest most disadvantaged citizens. So your government is buying WHAT exactly that is costing that much?

Couldn't be their OWN tickets off this rock, could it?

Yes, all of this would make sense if the money was legitimate tender, of which it is not.

Almost all of the laws today were put in place by criminals who usurped the mechanisms of government to gain power and skirt the Constitution and trample the liberty and pillage the property rights of as many people as possible.

Therefore there is no debt, there is only criminals to arrest, charge, try, and imprison. And then we can legally confiscate our vast assets back from the 'cartel', as almost all of it was obtained illegally through fraud, deception, murder, etc.

Hey I am only talking about physical reality here, I admit I find it hard to entertain the entire fractional reserve fantasy anymore.

Originally posted by Elliot
So what exactly is the US spending its money one other than WAR, WAR and more WAR?

I understand your infrastructure is falling to bits and the US is not that good at supporting its poorest most disadvantaged citizens. So your government is buying WHAT exactly that is costing that much?

Couldn't be their OWN tickets off this rock, could it?

Think about it, They are buying vehicles, weapons, all sorts to go to war with it's own country in order to "protect" it from itself, There are going to be many protests, little sparks of revolution, the Government doesn't want that do they?

They have already started by deploying 20,000 in their own country.

Jamie.

reply to post by orkson


Bring on the chaos.

It will happen, they're planning and ready for it. But will it have happened all before they've disarmed the nation.

I hope so.

All financial/economic topics discussed in the Global Meltdown forum will lead directly in to future topics in the World War III forum. We will not all starve to death as a result of these astronomical blunders, but we will end up in a nuclear war

reply to post by Hawking


Correct, and it will serve many purposes.

The final will be a new currency that will rise from the ashes. They might even be game enough to call it Pheonix.

It seems inevitable, it has been the answer to almost all previous depressions.

No doubt default is comming sooner or later...i think the more interesting question is what is the consequences of a default on 25% or 50% ?

This maybe?

I understand but does anyone else. I tried but failed to post a picture of the US unfunded liabilities. The total unfunded liabilities is now at over 54 trillian, Your contribution as a taxpayer (assuming you pay takes like I do) is over one million now. That is a lot of coin.

reply to post by Hibbs

Hi Hibbs !
Is it what you are looking for ?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/41d504a31cfe.jpg[/atsimg]

Excellent break down of the numbers ... demonstrates that it is just a matter of time (not long now) and the US government will be bankrupt.

"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen" - Sith Lord Soros

Originally posted by MegaMind
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen" - Sith Lord Soros

You got that right! Soros and his chronies have been setting this up for a while now. Over a decade!

I don't agree with the way they're doing this. A lot of people are going to get screwed.

Here's Soros explaining how he feels about America, the dollar, and a NEW global economy ala New World Order.

reply to post by orkson

No one, including brain damaged Cultural Marxist Zombies, give a crap about
math, no matter how simple it is.

Look below, 2 immigrants with a birth rate of 4 will produce 120 children in 80 years.
20 million will produce 1.2 billion children in 80 years.
thats pretty simple and no one gives a crap about it.

reply to post by RRokkyy


So, what you are saying is immigrants also have children? Is this an issue?

CJ

The real problem is the mindset that one's wealth must increase by x% per year. That's fine if you're poor or middle class, but societally disastrous when you have billionaires expecting it and working endlessly without retirement. No society can possibly produce enough wealth to satisfy hundreds of billionaires who demand that x% growth in their fortunes. Too much wealth concentration stifles growth and a healthy economy.

The solution is simple and obvious:

CAP WEALTH.

There is no reason, none, to allow unlimited wealth. No one has any inherent "right" to unlimited wealth. Once wealth is capped, new wealth will really trickle down as it is created. As the cap is reached, that person economically retires and goes off to enjoy life, and everyone else moves up a notch, and the economy hums.

reply to post by apacheman


Apacheman, this is an interesting point of vue, but IMO, non functional :
Retired when rich, the guy will begin to become poorer and poorer :
- he spends as a rich man , this means a lot.
- he is taxed as a rich man, and this is also a lot.
I can't imagine somebody able to become rich, able to become poor.
A system where someone couldn't earn more than a certain amount while working, would be better, but would be by-passed if all the fiscal paradises are not swipped off.

By the way, the problem we are in fact addressing is not the richness of individuals, but the false richness of the states, based on debt.
We should also realize that this is the result of our political system.
Democracy feeds this idiotic equation :
More money = more electors.
So more that this is more than I get.
So, let's borrow !

As soon as a state falls into budget deficit, it falls into a fatal spiral which ends into bankruptcy.
The more deficit, the more fatal.
It's extremely difficult to get out of it.

There are mindblowing paradoxes in maths.
One of it is this one :

I'm half the way from my destination.
I'm riding at 60 MPH
A vehicule riding at 120 MPH overtakes me.
At which speed must I go to overtake him before we reach my destination ?

Good image to understand the debt ...

reply to post by orkson


So how fast can a billionaire (if the limit were set there) possibly spend money? Just because they can't work doesn't mean their investments don't keep them topped off. It would just be a 100% tax on everything over 1 billion.

The only loss they would suffer would be purely mental, not real: their lifestyle wouldn't change due to lack of funds.